Per ESPN, Saints had a 71.7% win probability before the INT
by ShermanOaksND (2019-01-14 12:59:48)

In reply to: Fair or not, it's how single plays affect win probability  posted by harmonica

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It went to 91.4% after the INT, and to 99.9% when Kamara got the first down that ended all Eagles hopes.

They also had the Bears at 65% win probability before Parkey missed the FG. That play clearly was more decisive.

They might need to hire Chuck to run some numbers for them.
by harmonica  (2019-01-14 14:49:20)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

NFL kickers were 76% from 40-49 this year, so I would think a 43-yarder would be around 80%. Even if they're accounting for Parkey's particular ability, 65% is doing him a disservice, as bad as he is.

I buy 72% for the Saints, although that seems a tad high. 91% after the interception is dead wrong, especially given 72% when the Eagles had the ball.