Average star ranking for starting NFL QB’s - 2.93
by cards86 (2020-04-29 17:34:24)

Yeah - it shocked me as well. I used projections for starters during the upcoming season. I also used Rivals rankings. Had to make educated guesses on some guys. Notably:

Aaron Rodgers - unranked (went to a JC because no one wanted him)
Baker Mayfield - unranked (walked on at his first school)
Daniel Jones - unranked (didn’t find a rating for him on Rivals prior to going to Duke)
Drew Brees - 2* - only offered by Kentucky and Purdue
Tom Brady - 4* - recruited heavily and I assume a 4*
Carson Wentz - 2* - nothing on him and went to ND St
Gardner Minshew - 2* - nothing on him and went to Wash St.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - 2* - went to Harvard - found nothing
Ben Roethlisberger - 2* - played only his senior year and went to Miami (OH)
Philip Rivers - 3* - went to NC State so I went safe here

I could be wrong on some of these but the point is that finding a good QB is a crap shoot. Russell Wilson was rated a 2* coming out of HS. So was Josh Allen and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Just food for thought.

And no, I don’t think recruiting low ranked QB’s out of HS is the way to go. Also, the dual threat 5* QB’s have had more success than the 5* pro style QB’s with guys like Michael Vick, Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, and DeShaun Watson. Other than Matt Stafford the proStyle 5* have had a rough run.


Do you have the same on CB's? That strikes me as the
by Raoul  (2020-05-03 11:13:31)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

other position where development is so key and many great HS athletes aren't playing CB in HS. So they don't even start learning the position until college, and there is much to learn. And then in the pros there is so much more to learn as well.

OT, DT, WR seem like the areas easier to predict in HS but I don't have that data.


Have to believe QB is the hardest position to project,
by Raoul  (2020-05-03 11:10:44)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

especially Pro QB's. Dual threats are probably easier to project to college. But projecting pro style to college and then pros has to be extremely difficult. Size and athletic ability are one small part of the equation. But in many other positions they are probably 75% of the predictability (you can't teach size at OT and DE for sure, and hard to teach speed).




Not sure I'd define Tebow as "success" here
by ravenium  (2020-05-01 16:06:59)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

One of these QBs is not like the others.

*thinks about the playoff game vs the Steelers*
*dies a little inside*


True. Just thought about starters *
by cards86  (2020-05-01 19:25:29)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


I got notified last night about FS1 showing the "exciting"
by G.K.Chesterton  (2020-05-01 16:10:02)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

2015 NFC Title game between the Seahawks and the Packers. *Died a little inside multiple times*


Can you do that for Top College QBs? *
by Nitschke  (2020-05-01 09:44:27)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Just perusing ESPN’s top college QB’s I came up with:
by cards86  (2020-05-01 10:09:26)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Trevor Lawrence - 5*
Justin Fields - 5*
Sam Ehlinger - 4*
Jamie Newman - 3*
Brock Purdy - 3*
Kellen Mond - 5*
KJ Costello - 4*
Trey Lance - 2*
JT Daniels - 5*
Tommy DeVito - 4*
Myles Brennan - 4*
D’Eriq King - 3*
Ian Book - 3*

No idea about a lot of these guys. I would assume Lawrence goes #1 next year barring injury. But who knows who will emerge as legitimate NFL type QB’s. There are some highly ranked guys on this list coming out of HS. I also don’t have any idea if this is a good list or not.


Trey Lance--North Dakota St
by Hanratty5ND  (2020-05-01 10:33:44)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

As you note, he was a Rivals 2 star. From Marshall Minnesota in the 2018 class. Same recruiting class as Phil Jurkovic.

No offer from the Gophers or any Power 5 program.
His 7 offers were: Air Force,Columbia,Cornell,Northern Iowa,Northern Illinois,South Dakota St, and North Dakota St.

He is now widely projected to be a Top 10, or even a Top 5 pick in next years NFL draft.


Minshew only had 1 offer I think.
by tdiddy07  (2020-05-01 09:00:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I'd guess he was unranked or a 1 star. I'd also guess Wentz was unranked since services were robust when he was a high schooler.

Rivers was probably a four-star. He was recruited by some major programs, but he wanted to play right away.


Rivers was recruited as a TE *
by cards86  (2020-05-01 09:10:50)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Brady was not heavily recruited.
by Patrick Bateman  (2020-04-30 18:45:35)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I recall reading an article that his father sent out 50+ highlight tapes to large programs across the country and only a few took notice


Imagine if Brady was the first QB pick in the 2000 draft
by ravenium  (2020-05-01 16:09:53)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Instead of Pennington. We'd probably never have remembered him today, other than "remember that guy that was drafted in the same round as Marc Bulger? What was his name?"

The team you're on matters a lot.


I don’t believe that *
by cards86  (2020-05-01 19:26:37)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


It's a large what-if scenario, for sure
by ravenium  (2020-05-04 14:16:32)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

And naturally impossible to prove without a time machine. But that's what makes sports fun.


Yes and no...
by Hanratty5ND  (2020-05-01 08:13:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

This SI article details his recruitment.

USC,UCLA and some others were hot on him for a bit.
Some coaches liked him more than others. USC's John Robinson wasn't crazy about him, but his assistant Mike Riley was.

If you read anything--read the part about the exchange between Brady and Lynn Swann when Brady was visiting USC. Hilarious shit:


Huh *
by cards86  (2020-04-30 21:08:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


The only reason Rodgers got a scholarship with Cal is
by G.K.Chesterton  (2020-04-29 18:05:04)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

because a coach for Cal was visiting Boise to scout a tight end he and noticed Rodgers.


Yep. Supposedly Tedford saw one pass and knew he was an NFL
by cards86  (2020-04-29 18:11:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

QB.