I believe BK wants out of ND, but his ego will prevent him from making any "lateral move" this year. Kelly believes he is the smartest guy in any room he enters. He has delusions that he would make a great NFL coach. It's extremely unlikely he will be offered an NFL head coaching position after this year's season-ending nosedive. I think the only circumstance that would cause Kelly to make a lateral move to a different college program in 2015 would be if Kelly thought the "lateral move" football team's record in 2015 would be better than ND's and serve as a springboard to NFL offers at the end of 2015.
Assuming the NFL head coaching interest is not there this year, Brian Kelly will do what he thinks maximizes his opportunity for consideration and selection at the end of 2015. Right now his coaching stock is low and he needs to pump up its value. He probably believes that there is no way 2015 will bring the same suspensions and injuries he had to overcome this year and with all the returning players, next year's team could have a shot at making the 4-team play-off. I doubt any lateral move that might be available would be perceived by Kelly as presenting the same chance of making the play-off. So, I think Kelly will stay at ND for the 2015 season, even if offered a lateral move. He is putting all of his eggs in the 2015 season basket, looking for the golden ticket to an NFL head coaching gig. Ultimately, his ego will prevent him from adopting a run-oriented offensive scheme that probably represents the best chance for success next year. We will be stuck with another season of enduring the inept offensive wizardry of the great and powerful Coach Kelly, with no NFL offer forthcoming in 2015 either. What happens after 2015 is anyone's guess.
Presently, as you say, his stock is low.
He has alienated a number of alums and fans with his high-risk, pass on first down offense, and abandon the run early in the game if it doesn't work in the first two series.
If he thinks that he will coach ND to a four team playoff in 2015, I want some of what he's smoking.
It seems to me that other teams, including Navy, have figured this poseur out and know just how to get into his head. Once inside, like the Sony hackers, they have complete access to everything and it's like Christmas morning every day.
. . . the second half of the FSU game. This team has been soggy, milque
toast, and we still have to suffer indignities at the hands of LSU. I am
not optimistic about 2015.
a mercenary with boyhood dreams to fulfill.
He had every opportunity to squelch rumors, show loyalty and he chose not to do so...
"Like every kid who has ever put on a pair of football cleats, I have had thoughts about being a part of the NFL. However, after much reflection and conversation with those closest to me, I have decided to remain at Notre Dame."
"This decision was motivated purely by my love for Notre Dame and the entire Fighting Irish community, the young men I have the great fortune to coach, and my desire to continue to build the best football program in the country."
Here's the bs. "However, after much reflection and conversation with those closest to me, I have decided to remain at Notre Dame."
Translation, I didn't get an offer.
kelly lacks loyalty and right now is a danger to Notre Dame. He's taking us down a rabbit hole of ineptitude across every core football discipline and also "mainstreaming" the program through systemic changing of our core traditions.
One example is the smoke coming out of the tunnel during our intro. It may as well be coming out of kelly's ass....
It's rank and it makes us look like imbeciles.
There's nothing hard nosed/sound about ND football anymore.
We are mocked by nothwestern...it's who we are...get used to it.
I figured that he was on his way out of there, to take advantage of the market created for him and his career by the positive performance of his team and the negative issues at some premier programs around.
I speculate that the back channel conversations have gone on with him and that is why he is holding tight.
I see the following NFL teams needing a coach (and I don't do this speculation a lot or well)
Miami (this is where I think Harbaugh lands)
Possible NFL turnover
New Orleans (that team got bad in a hurry)
I think Kelly heads off on his own...interesting that the bowl game is the day after the end of the NFL season.
I think you may be on to something.
Variations and preference of offense style aside, I think BK is like most ND fans and alumni.
He sits in his office and thinks to himself....
"The people who run Notre Dame do realize it is more famous for football than any piece of academic work, right?"
Kelly. And he's floating his name with anonymous, off the record leaks to friendly dupes in journalism, to create the impression of Kelly being a hot commodity.
Failing that, (and I do think that our late season cratering foiled the Kelly/Armstrong grand plan), I think Kelly would take any number of other major conference jobs that may become available after the musical chairs. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if he took the CSU job. Or Pitt. Or Ole Miss or another SEC job.
He wants to coach in the NFL. Armstrong wants him to coach in the NFL. I think they realize that ND is on a downward trajectory, so it's time to grab a couple of parachutes and db cooper it out of South Bend.
If our coach is not good enough for Texas, why is he good enough for Notre Dame?
Or is it speculation?
then what is stopping from Swarbrick from telling Kelly to go pound sand? Is Swarbrick just standing by and letting Kelly flirt with other suitors? My impression from 2012 is that he would not allow that to happen.
If Kelly wants a promotion, he needs to field a much better team in 2015. We should fire him when it's in our interests to do so, not just when he pisses us off.
When a coach is clearly not focused on the long-term concerns of the program, it is dangerous. You can't keep a guy who is just writing a resume. Recruiting the following year could be disastrous.
While I certainly don't want to launch him without some plan for a viable successor, I just can't for the life of me accept that we're not ready again. OK, Swarbrick wasn't ready in late 2008 after he had been there a few months. He was a little bit ready in 2009 - kind of. He wasn't ready in Jan. '13 if Kelly went to Philly.
Shame the hell on him -- and on us -- if he's not ready now. Kelly would not be the only one we would need to launch.
way out" letter in his pocket right now, just waiting until Urban is officially ready to announce...
Oh, one can dream...
...if you have a source (not saying you do not), then I would assume Jack is aware of these dealings, and is laying the groundwork with some of the half-dozen or dozen coaches he has been building relationships with through back-channels, and a seamless transition would occur resulting in a good, if not great hire.
Please tell me that is the case. Please? For some reason I have doubts.
You can do all the contingency planning in the world, and tell all the good coaches in the country that you'd like to hire them the next time to job opens. But none of them can make any substantive promises that they'll sign on the dotted line when that day comes. The only thing they can really promise is that they'll give it serious consideration and won't let contractual obligations at their current job get in the way.
Jack will never disclose the extent of contingency planning he has done. If the first guy he offers the job to says "no", then a lot of people will claim it as proof that he didn't plan ahead, but that just isn't necessarily the case.
to all head coach openings.
The only one to be "offered" the job is the one who says "yes". It's a bunch of semantics; this shit is what lawyers live for.
AD: Here are the conditions of what you would receive if we were to offer you the job. If we offered you the job would you accept these terms?
AD: Do you pinky swear?
AD: In that case, I would like to offer you the football head coach position at SuperTheAwesome University.
Coach: I accept.
the agent. It doesn't even get to the coach until the agent has had numerous conversations.
According to the source, was Kelly looking before the season headed south (ie - pre-FSU)?
MPO is he's been looking ever since December of 2012.
Sucking wind at every possible turn, under the biggest available spotlights, probably isn't working wonders for his agent's travails.
"Hey, I rebuilt Notre Dame. Their "restrictions" kept me from beating Alabama, but we went 12-0."
"Noone could overcome the cards I was dealt this season. Players suspended due to Notre Dame's ridiculous standards, and catastrophic injuries across the board."
If my coach was actively looking and I were the A.D., I would be actively looking too. Surely Jack is smart enough to be doing that right?
program. His offensive system seems more suited for QBs that are NFL caliber.
with Marty Morningweg's brains as an OC. With his brash candor, professional athletes would jump ship on him as soon as things started going poorly, they will see right through his politician bullshit. I think he'd be a train wreck in the NFL.
"They're 10-4 and 30th in rushing yards per game! Sure, their offense is hideously inconsistent, but guess what -- so's mine!"
for defenses that are MAC caliber.
Chip Kelly without the misdirection. Oakland should really consider Brian to lead Carr into a more prolific offense.
There are probably a number of offenses that are better comparisons in the NFL. Chip's is not one.
For your sake I hope you are being sarcastic. Chip's not destroying the NFL, but BK couldn't sniff his jock as a coach. Chip went 46-7 in the PAC-12 in his only four years as a head coach in college, averaging 45 points a game while doing it.
And Chip Kelly's offense isn't really humming in the NFL. Last night wasn't impressive either - He has arguably the top RB in the NFL and he touched the ball 17 times while putting the game in the hands of a guy who got cut by the Jets. I am less impressed with Chip Kelly now than I ever have been.
That said, if his offense doesn't work, I highly doubt our boy wonder's will.
If BK thought ND fans were rough, I'd chuckle at him facing the NY media.
and make a play works very well at that level.
Like DB Cooper, if Kelly jumps to the NFL, he will most likely be a victim of what Jerry Glanville told his players "NFL" stands for: "Not For Long".
Like DB Cooper, Kelly will disappear, with only a ratty backpack turning up in some manzanita bushes a few years later, as evidence that he may have landed and been eaten by wolves.
there that he was looking at the Raiders. I can't imagine many people listen to Jack on a daily basis. It would be better for Kelly if he leaked it to someone from the NFL Network.
Brian Kelly RT @houtexmajorin: if any college HC jumps to NFL who is it— Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks) December 15, 2014
What is that? Translation?
Claiming that Kelly is the most likely college coach to make the leap to the pros this year.
I don't speak twitter jive either, so correct me if I misread the context.
If someone asks you "Who do you think is the most likely college coach to jump to the pros?" you might think about guys who have interviewed in the past and remember that BK talked to the Eagles 2 years ago, and for lack of any other coaches coming to mind that would be your answer. That's not new information.
If someone tweeted "Niners source says they're interested in BK" then that's entirely different.
Some guy posted, "if any college HC jumps to NFL who is it" to which Daniel Jeremiah (according to his bio, "NFL Network analyst -- Former scout for the Ravens, Browns and Eagles") replied with the name Brian Kelly.
As you said, it's obvious BK would consider jumping to the NFL for the right opportunity. The problem is that, at age 53, he's already older than the median age of NFL head coaches. Pete Carroll made the move at about age 57 and is now the second oldest coach in the NFL.
At this point in BK's career, moving to another college job would only postpone and possibly limit his NFL opportunities. For that reason, I seriously doubt he'd make a lateral move to another college job as long as an NFL job is a possibility.
The article didn't give specifics, but mentioned that the admissions office was still working it's way through his paperwork, while the date to visit is probably gone.
I would think that it could be a big burr in Kelly's saddle at this point.
He had to know it was a long shot and now he can tell future potential employers how he was handcuffed at ND.
Why Kelly would expect to bring in a JUCO shows a lot about his arrogance or ignorance. It would have to take an amazing development for a JUCO to make it into ND's football program on a full ride.
It might be that he qualifies as an incoming freshman. I don't see any reason why he shouldn't be allowed to start over at Notre Dame.
Im not 100% sure on the specifics, but by the accounts I have read the kid had qualifications to make it into ND.
Its not a widely kept secret that ND admissions doesnt have any special expedited process for the football department. That is a huge f'in problem considering the limitations ND already puts itself under.
At risk of sounding like a complete homer, I honestly believe that. Notre Dame is a unique institution and there are no peers.
Schools like Alabama, Texas and USC and Ohio State have good football traditions and present great coaching opportunities, but present different characteristics from Notre Dame.
In a pure literal sense, Kelly could make a lateral move from one college HC opportunity to another. He could also go to the NFL. Neither of those choices are lateral in my opinion.
Do you believe Brian Kelly views Notre Dame in that special way?
Notre Dame is a Tier 1 job to him, but no more special than any other top program.
Actually, I believe he views it as below those programs, because ND "restricts" his ability to win.
I don't think that he sees ND as as special in the way that you or I see it. He probably sees ND as one of many tier 1 schools, but I'm sure he also sees it as a unique opportunity in the career of Brian Kelly. There are tier 1 coaching gigs that don't give a coach the platform that he seeks.
I don't think your question is particularly on point, because it's not lateral moves he's looking to make. I think that he's the ultimate narcissist, and wants people to think of him as a great coach.
I don't think that he'd ever want the challenge of coaching in the SEC. He probably wouldn't take a program like Michigan either because the risk isn't worth the move. He wanted the opportunity to be a legend at Notre Dame, but overestimated his abilities and the unique challenge that you need to embrace at Notre Dame.
I think that he'd take Texas, Miami, USC and maybe FSU. Beyond that, he's looking at NFL jobs. Alternatively, he'd probably take a 1 year stint at a school that could "repair" his image as an NFL caliber coach.
That's a great distinction between how most of us view ND and how he does, and I think your conclusion is dead-on. I don't think there is a current team that fits this (nor do I think another team will ever be that loaded with future NFL stars), but Miami ~1999 when Davis left would seem to be the perfect setting for someone looking to go down as a legend, as anyone could see that team was locked and loaded for a deep run with even a decent coach. While not quite that level, the teams you mentioned are pretty well set up between loaded local recruiting and favorable schedules (save OU, FSU, Oregon respectively) where a decent coach could easily win pretty quickly, and they're also "name" programs that are either historically or recently elite.
As for your third paragraph, I personally don't think he would be in the beloved pantheon with Rock, Leahy, Ara, and Lou, but he could have easily been just below with Devine as a respected NC-calibre coach with just a little ego shedding regarding his offense and slightly better luck, especially given the low bar his predecessors set. Alabama deserved the 2012 NC, but if KSU didn't crap the bed against a middling Baylor team, we could have easily stolen the title that year and perhaps changed both Kelly & ND's trajectory. We're a cut below the elites this year, but with better luck on the suspensions/injuries and smarter playcalling, 9-3 was well within reach and would have set us up for a legit run in 2015, and 2 NC-level runs mixed in with 2 top 15-25 years gets us just below Alabama/Oregon where we can legitimately claim to be be back. I hate the petroleum turf and inane music, but to his credit he's recruited well and gotten things like the training table, and I genuinely think the job would be far more attractive (although as UT & UF showed, good coaches don't necessarily leave good jobs for ones they perceive as slightly, if any better) to a new coach were he to leave than it was after the last few coaches.
As an aside, someone (edit -ThreeD below) posted this earlier after the banquet evacuation, but exclusive of any coaching decisions, there probably has never been an ND coach who has had this many bad things happen. The Sullivan tragedy obviously dwarves everything else, but there's also been the Teo situation, mass suspensions, inexplicable transfers, injuries at key positions, and so on. It doesn't excuse anything, but man it's been brutal and I can see how he might be frustrated
While I think that we were a better team than KSU, I believe that Bill Snyder would have been well prepared for the the title game.
However, had we beaten KSU for the Championship, Kelly's stock would have been higher and there's a good chance that he would have been offered a job by the Eagles or some other NFL team. The admin probably would have made Chuck Martin the HC, and we'd all still hate Kelly.
For all his faults I don't believe that Kelly is a checken shit. So, no.
...I doubt that any traditional "Tier 1" college football team would hire him in the foreseeable future, based on his work at ND.
On the other hand, I could imagine a team like Pittsburgh giving him a serious look. Kelly would likely be an upgrade from the likes of Chryst, Wanny, and Walt Harris. Additionally, the expectations at Pitt are nowhere near as high as those at ND. If Kelly can get 8-9 wins each season at that school, most fans and administrators will likely be satisfied.
With all that said, it would be embarrassing for ND if its head football coach voluntary left for a team like Pitt. There's been enough flack in the press about Gary Andersen voluntarily leaving Wisconsin for Oregon State. Kelly leaving for someplace like Pitt would generate similar scrutiny on a much larger scale.
If they think, like I do, that ND is as capable as any other program to be a consistent top 10 team, then Kelly's record at ND would be viewed as no big deal.
If they think, like some outsiders do, that ND is at a disadvantage due to the admissions requirements as well as the academic workload, plus suspensions for things that would go unnoticed as other schools, then they might conclude that BK met or exceeded expectations at ND. They might also appreciate his experience of 5 years in the national spotlight, and ironically view that as "big-timey".
why go to a lower level to get the same record and level of satisfaction?
I've been told by non-ND fans that I'm a nut for expecting more all the time. Further, these same people have said the ND fans they have spoken with think Kelly is great.
I hate those ND fans. Most are likely not old enough to really remember how great 1988-1993 was.
Unless you're just blaming ND playing like crap on Kelly - which is possible.
Rees threw a pick in the endzone. Then he threw another pick that was returned to the ND 5 yard line that led to a score.
No one recovered a Pitt QB fumble
Tuitt was ejected early in the game by the same guy that called interference on ND in the FSU game.
the players, too?
25 called passing plays in the second half, 6 called running plays - in what was at most a one score game in either direction when ND started with the ball. ND averaged 5.8 yards per run in the game.
Here's the plays called on the last two series:
Pass ND Down 28-21; 9:36 remaining
Pass ND Down 28-21; 3:58 remaining
Pass Intentional grounding
If you're going to fault Rees for playing a bad game, then shouldn't you also fault the guy who put the game squarely on his shoulders?
Rees goes 18-39 throwing the ball yet we rush 24 for 138 yards (5.8 yards per carry) and really stop running the ball late in the game.
I can point to many instances in that Pitt game that he was outcoached by Chryst.
One being--He had Rees rolling out of the pocket and trying to throw on the move.
Everyone but Brian Kelly knew Rees couldn't throw well when on the move. A predictable pick near/in Pitt's red zone came on a Rees rollout.
Asking your players to do things they can't do well is not good coaching.
Saban thoroughly out-coached him in the National Championship game.
Wow I never realized how lucky we're to have him, his records(W-L) you would think would be amazing. But then again it's the players fault he has bombed here not anything he has done.
Saban is the best coach in America and Brian Kelly is nowhere near his ilk.
Todd Graham(Which in my opinion is a lot better of a coach)would at least be a okay comparison.
The fact you choose Saban makes me think you believe Kelly is a comparable coach to him.
You need to rethink that one again.
At least 80% of Kelly's losses are because he got too cute and got his ass out-coached.
I've never seen a worse qb on the roll. His completion percentage couldn't have been more than 40 percent outside the pocket. Yet 2-3 designed roll outs would be called per game.
MSU in 2012
OU in 2012
SC in 2012 (basically knew his D would hold SC down enough to let his O score without taking a lot of chances)
FSU in 2014
I can also count a ton of games where ND had the superior talent on the field and Kelly was outcoached (I count bonehead plays and game plan as being out coached)
I'll spare you the list.
If your QB plays like garbage, I'm not sure how you can say the opposing coach "out-coached" you.
And ran the ball 24.
So to be clear, you support passing 62% of the time when your quarterback plays like garbage?
Kelly can only call the plays.
Who do you suppose prepared the QB?
Who called the plays that the QB ran?
Even if your argument is something akin to Jay Gruden claiming RGIII didn't read the "right side of the field" or was doing "5 step drops" when a "3 step drop" was celled for, etc. Then isn't it on Kelly to either correct the problem with EG or have a backup prepared?
Your thought is that any turnover by the QB is on the head coach? That's pretty ridiculous.
He's saying creating a game plan that increases the probability of a turnover by the QB is on the head coach.
And he's right.
who put the gameplan together that focused so much of the offense on the QB?
We could go around and around on this all day...Kelly runs a solid program. He just doesn't coach a solid offense
You're expanding your argument - I'm talking specifically about Pitt vs ND.
You said Chryst out-coached Kelly. Picking Rees as your QB after your 1st and 2nd string guys are suspended or transfer isn't a kudos to Chryst.
Unless Chryst encouraged Golson to cheat on his final exams - then I'll give him the nod.
I would have modified my game plan to run the ball more and put less pressure on the QB.
Why is that not an option on your list?
And even with that thought, I don't have to say that Chryst out-coached Kelly in that particular game.
But it's true.
One coach's game plan did not.
Given that game planning is a critical aspect of coaching, doesn't that mean the first coach out-coached the second?
is just some crappy decisions by Kelly.
I don't think Chryst did anything to force Kelly to throw the ball more in the 2nd half.
I guess this comes down to how you define being "out-coached".
Kelly's game plan all year was pass-heavy.
Which one coached better in that game? Who outcoached whom?
No one is saying Chryst was Nick Saban. Kelly choosing to execute a poor gameplan means he was "outcoached" by the guy on the other sideline who chose to execute an average or slightly above average gameplan.
You say "just some crappy decisions by Kelly" as if it was just a thing that happened and has no bearing on who was the better coach in the game.
Kelly's coaching decisions had a bearing on the outcome. As did Rees playing like garbage. As did not picking up a fumble. As did Tuitt getting ejected.
Kelly choosing to throw the ball too much in the 2nd half doesn't make me sit back and say - Man, that Chryst really out-coached Kelly.
Pitt and that is my definition of outcoaching the other.
Kelly doesn't play to his team strengths, he plays to the Super Nintendo 64 Tecmo Bowl game he used to play in the fraternity...and if he didn't get the Raiders with Bo Jackson, his face turned a nasty purple.
If so, why in the hell wouldn't you say he outcoached him? No one's claiming he was a chess grandmaster, flustering Kelly at every turn. Just that Chryst had his team prepared with a good gameplan and Kelly did not. That's simple enough. Chryst got a B, or whatever, and Kelly got a D. If it were a math test, who outperformed whom?
Which would have been the longest FG made in that direction in Heinz Field history - by at least 3 yards.
Kelly called 16 passing plays in the 4th quarter (including 12 straight to end the game, after Rees had thrown 2 horrible INTs, even though there was plenty of time left and were only down 1 score), and just 3 rushing plays (2 handoffs to McDaniel, 1 to Atkinson).
are part of a Brian Kelly offense.
I'm sure that he's convinced that the offense is perfect, if not for the lack of execution.
Make the QB better. Or ask yourself, "who picked the starting QB?"
He has an amazing arm (like Golson)
His coach likes being thought of as an offensive genius (Like Kelly)
He will make some amazing throws which makes you think he is finally getting it, and then turns the ball over in inexplicable ways (like Golson)
He puts the team in horrific positions because of turnovers and field position (like Golson and Kelly)
has done the same things his entire career- no matter who is coaching. It's the reason the Broncos traded him several years ago.
and the Broncos got rid of Cutler because they were stupid.
They hired McDaniels, then he fell in love with Tebow (yes, Tebow), and wanted to keep Cutler, but they insulted Cutler with the move and the dialogue that followed (Cutler is also a baby, and I"m not going there with Golson...I like the kid). Cutler and Tebow were not going to be on the same team...no way. If they brought both of those guys to camp, the circus would have been unlike anything ever seen.
The Broncos got rid of McDaniel (bad for the Chiefs as he was awful) and picked up Fox (really bad for the Chiefs as he is a very good coach) and that is the only way they got Manning. The only way.
So I'm not sure what your point is here.
The point is - at some point - it's the QB.
that every year but 2012, it's been the QB?
Could it be that they're getting bad coaching and gameplanning?
Nah, Kelly must just be having a terrible and unforeseeable string of luck with QB prospects turning out to be terrible players. That must be it.
But after the fourth or fifth time that it's the QB, then it's time to either put a different QB in there or change your game plan to take the pressure off the QB.
If neither of those things happen, it's the coach.
...your National Championship runner-up quarterback, your record setting kicker and your go-to running back all have issues.
One of them struggling is a slump. All of them struggling almost simultaneously at key moments of a game? That's on the coach.
Like his string of QB failures (Crist, Rees, Golson - all regressed as starters), Kelly seems to have lost this team at other key positions, too.
It's the coach.
Trestman, while likely not without fault, didn't sign Cutler to a big money deal.
Brian Kelly, on the other hand, recruited every QB on the roster and is the only person in charge of who plays and doesn't.
some of his own doing, but a greater than (what seems) typical amount of stuff outside his control.
Not to play shrink, but his comments at the FB banquet while the evacuation was going on suggest a sense of "what the f*c% next?"