Kelly has four seasons left on his contract, through 2021.

Kelly has four seasons left on his contract, through 2021.
by VaDblDmr (2018-01-10 20:54:28)

In reply to: Logically, which is more likely? posted by El Kabong

After next season, that will be three and time for ND to extend or signal that he's year-to-year (at best), which no big-time program can afford to do.
If I had to guess, I'd say that the tea leaves are lining up that an extension won't be forthcoming a year from now, and that is playing some role in the recent movement. PERHAPS that was the "deal" that Sally struck with the BOT in exchange for not forcing him to fire Kelly after last year.

I don't think they would lame-duck his contract.

For recruiting purposes, I suspect they would always want to have at least 4 more contract years in place. So after next year, I think they would either extend him to at least 2022 or agree to part ways. How well the 2018 season goes could determine what the buy-out looks like.

For example (and I'm just brainstorming at this point), if they have a mediocre 8-4 season in 2018 but decide to retain him maybe they would extend his contract to 2022 for window dressing purposes without actually increasing his buy-out such that if they fire him after 2019 they would only need to pay his contract through 2021.

Right, I agree. Next year will be determinative, and it

could be that ME and HH recognize that and are, in part, choosing to get out while the getting is good.