The pass into the end zone against Tulsa
by miamioh_irishfan (2019-05-11 10:05:33)

In reply to: what did you think ND’s most infamous play is of all time?  posted by Inigomontoya

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When a FG would’ve won it.

Get used to it indeed.

All time dumbest decision
by ndbob79  (2019-05-11 13:08:08)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

with senior kicker on sideline who had not yet missed. Maybe Kelly thought he was due to miss.
Or going for 2 against Northwestern when up 11
by Tanderagee  (2019-05-11 18:41:57)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Again did not trust kickers, maybe with some justification. Believe we had missed one kick and bobbled another snap that day. But the book says when scoring to go up 11 late in the game, take the singleton. Naturally we didn't get the 2.

Northwestern of course got the TD, 2-pointer and FG to force OT, where they won.
Didn’t Kelly go for 2 against Clemson, missed the try
by Fasted68  (2019-05-11 22:04:17)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

And we lost the game by 1? Something like that. I was screaming at the tv as he was making his decision. Didn’t Kelly later say that he had consulted his highest authority or some shit
Yes, he went for 2 at beginning of 4th qtr at Clemson.
by MobileIrish  (2019-05-11 22:38:37)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

That decision forced ND to go for 2 again at the end of the game. The turnovers didn’t help either.
That one could have worked out though.
by rockmcd  (2019-05-13 14:29:55)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

If you assume that every 2 point conversion attempt is going to fail, then obviously every 2 point conversion attempt is going to be dumb.

In the Clemson game, they were down 21-3 before scoring a TD with 14:13 left in the game, making it 21-9 pending the conversion attempt. At that point there were a lot of potential outcomes. One such outcome was that if they converted the 2-pt conversion with 14:13 left, then they would have only needed a 1-pt conversion at the end of the game to win the game outright.

Another way to look at it is this way. Knowing in hindsight that Clemson kicked a FG later in that game and assuming you'll make all your kicks (not completely certain in a rainstorm but let's go with this for sake of argument), Kelly had 4 different potential outcomes with respect to 2-point conversions:

(a) Go for 2 the first time and convert - Win the game in regulation.
(b) Don't attempt it the first time - Go to overtime and 50% chance to win.
(c) Fail to convert the first time, succeed the 2nd time - Go to overtime and 50% chance to win.
(d) Fail to convert 2 times in a row - Lose the game in regulation.

Since (b) and (c) give you the same result, the decision comes down to which is more likely: Going 1-for-1, or going 0-for-2? If my math is correct, the breakeven point is whether your average successful conversion rate is 38%. Going for it gives you a 38% chance of winning (by converting the first time), and it gives you a 38% chance of losing [62% chance they fail the first time, multiplied by 62% chance they fail the 2nd time = 38% chance they fail both times]. So if they're going to convert it more than 38% of the time on average, then Kelly made the right decision against Clemson.

As for the 2014 Northwestern game, that was just plain dumb.