Surprisingly, BK's numbers look good against final top 25
by smithwick (2019-07-15 12:15:00)
Edited on 2019-07-15 12:15:36

In reply to: BK-coached teams have not won vs end-of-season  posted by nd71

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recently, which includes 2016. The numbers include some fluff (e.g. Northwestern and Syracuse), but also some good programs/teams (e.g. USC, LSU, Michigan, Michigan St.).

Records last 3 years vs. final AP Top 25:

Swinney 14-2
Saban 14-3
Kelly 8-7
Smart 7-7
Gundy 5-5
Helton 6-7
Leach 4-5
Petersen 4-5
Fisher 6-8
Chryst 5-7
Franklin 5-7
Frost 4-6
Malzahn 6-10
Harbaugh 5-9
Mullen 3-8
Shaw 3-8
Dantonio 3-10
Fitzgerald 2-8
Ferentz 2-9
Patterson 2-9

Kelly is 2-12 per teams ending the in the AP Top Ten,
by G.K.Chesterton  (2019-07-15 13:50:01)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

per AlexanderBess.com, which is the more telling stat.

Note: why does AlexanderBess.com show 12 losses against final top 10 teams when those stats only show 7 losses against final top 25 teams? Something's wrong somewhere - could someone check my numbers? (I had to go to the Bess site on my cell phone because it's blocked at work.)
The 8-7 vs top 25 stat was only limited to past 3 years. *
by rockmcd  (2019-07-15 13:52:29)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Thank you. *
by G.K.Chesterton  (2019-07-15 13:53:44)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Anybody got the same chart for Top 10? Top 15?
by ndzippy  (2019-07-15 13:45:20)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I suspect BK wouldn't be so high up on the list if we trimmed the fat a bit.
I don't but to give some context in the past two seasons
by Carlos Huerta  (2019-07-15 15:30:51)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Smart has road wins over teams that finished the season ranked 11 and 12 and neutral site wins over teams finishing 3, 7, and 10. He also lost the national title to Bama in overtime and held the lead on them in the fourth quarter of the SEC Title game before losing by 7. Give Kelly his entire nine year resume of away/neutral games and have him stack his best seven performances up against those.

I think we are well aware that USC is in a swoon, you homer
by ACross  (2019-07-15 12:57:16)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

LSU is coached by a a preposterously stupid man whose offense is in constant disarray.

We all know Kelly can't beat truly elite teams. I credit him with the Oklahoma win in 2012.
Erudite *
by smithwick  (2019-07-15 14:28:38)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

FWIW, our 2017 win over USC kept them out of the Playoff.
by rockmcd  (2019-07-15 13:42:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

We beat them by 35 points. And 2018 Michigan was in national championship contention until the final week of the season. Those were great wins.

But I agree that those weren't truly elite teams - Helton and Harbaugh and Kelly are all passengers on the same ROY bus with an 0-for-forever record against Saban/Meyer/Swinney.

What's the definition of "elite"?
by Twinkie the Kid  (2019-07-16 09:30:06)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Not ND. I get that. But who is elite? Alabama and Clemson, certainly. Ohio State under Urban Meyer. Consistently, those are/were three truly elite teams. I'm not sure anyone else qualifies. Other than one close game against Clemson in 2015, ND has had their asses handed to them by all three.

Anyone else? Georgia? Oklahoma?
Yes, those three. GA and OK knocking on the door.
by rockmcd  (2019-07-16 12:29:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

If someone wants to consider Georgia and Oklahoma elite, I won't put up much of an argument, but I'd like to see them beat someone besides each other in a Playoff game before crowning them.

It'll certainly be interesting to see what happens with Ohio St over the next couple years. Will they take a step back like USC did after Pete Carroll left, or will they get even better like Oklahoma did after Stoops left (so far at least)?

I don't know about Helton
by jt  (2019-07-15 14:54:47)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

but for some reason I always got the impression that Harbaugh's teams play tight against good competition, including in SF. I like him as a coach, though I think that he's nuts, but he's probably wound too tight for the big game atmosphere.

The one year in SF that they made the Super Bowl they were able to overcome some stuff because they needed to open it up on offense with Justin Smith hurt on defense. Prior to that, they would seemingly just try to keep it close and win with defense, and they did the same formula the next two years as well.