It’s not really an issue of test accuracy
by carroll2005 (2020-06-20 15:07:09)

In reply to: CDC reported half of the anti-body tests were inaccurate  posted by Wolfetone


It’s an issue of people not understanding statistics, prevalence, and pre-test probability.

Basically - the prevalence in most communities makes pre-test probability extremely low, so even a test with 99% sensitivity/specificity will end up having a false positive nearly as often as a true positive.

Extreme example of the statistics concept: you have a pregnancy test that is 99.9% accurate. But you are administering it to a man. Pre-test probability of a true positive test is 0, so it doesn’t matter how accurate your test is.