On your third point

I agree with you, but for different reasons.

According to people that track the data, there are more players going from P5 to G5 than from G5 to P5. Considering the small sample size, I would say that definitely has held true at Notre Dame--we've had many guys transfer out to smaller programs, while we have only brought a handful of guys in from P5 programs.

What I think the big schools are doing is using the transfer portal to manage players off the roster, while backfilling them with incoming recruits. Some programs, such as Houston, are definitely going to use the transfer portal as a de facto waiver wire (to get better faster), but I don't think we are seeing too many cases of that across the country.