So you're going to stand pat that we'd only lose 5 games?

So you're going to stand pat that we'd only lose 5 games?
by tdiddy07 (2021-10-19 12:56:40)

In reply to: Stop being ridiculous posted by Chicagond99

0-2 against UT/NU and 3 losses against the remaining 9? That's not a real bold challenge to the assertion of 6 losses.

But yes 5-6 losses seems pretty reasonable. In addition to 0-2 against UT/NU:

You seem to assume the reasonable likelihood of ND losing 2 from the remaining slate based on your estimation that ND would go about 6-3 against the non-UT/NU teams from 2001. That's justifiable. We squeaked by on late scores against 2-4 and 3-3 team major conference teams and a 2-4 MAC team so far (effectively going 3-0 in toss ups), and we beat two other 3-3, 4-2 teams that will likely finish around .500. With five games remaining against teams around a .500 quality (and no MAC-level teams), based on our performance thus far and the staggering deficiencies in offensive line play, I'd guess 3-2 is probably the most likely outcome from our 2021 ACC/Pac 12 slate, plus a win against Navy.

Next, there is no Toledo on that schedule. A game like we played against Toledo would've lost to pretty much everyone on that 2001 schedule except for Navy. That's a likelihood of five total losses from these factors.

Finally, you nonsensically downgrade the 2001 schedule. You can't just assume an ND win against all those opponents to downgrade their record. We know those 2001 teams had the record they had. A&M and BC went 8-4, including beating a bad ND team, and Stanford went 9-3, including a beating a bad ND. The question here is whether the 2021 ND team would likely beat those team. You can't just call A&M a 7-5 team and then decide whether the 2021 ND team would beat that team. That's nonsense. Given that the 2001 schedule had 3 teams at 8-4 or better, that's likely going to be tougher than what ND is facing this year, even if you remove ND's 2021 game from their record. I'd guess there's an extra loss in their somewhere based on schedule strength.

All in all, this team looks like a 5 or 6 loss team against the 2001 schedule.

No, I'm saying we wouldn't lose 6 games "minimum"

And would be much better than 5-6 against that slate. You can toss out the Toledo win this year if you want, so you can make the schedules even with number of games.

When you lose to a team, they have a better resume overall. So, for example, if we lost to 7-4 BC, you'll say "This is a fairly solid 8-4 team". But if we beat them, then they're "just another 7-5 team". If Wisconsin ends up 7-5 this year (which is probably the most likely outcome), you're discounting that win. But if we lost that game, they theoretically would finish 8-4, then you call them a pretty good team. You're basically assuming a harder SOS when we are shittier. And the fact is Sagarin has us rated as the 6th best schedule so far (yes, I know that will drop a lot), and we are 5-1 against it and ranked #13. Not a stellar season or one to get too excited about. But to say that this team would be worse than the 5-6 2001 squad. Their SOS was 14 according to Sagarin, so I'm not saying they played a terrible slate. But I don't think 2021 ND would be 5-6 against the 14th ranked schedule this year.

No, you can't just toss out the worst played game

and say it doesn't count. It's a relevant data point. We are capable of playing like shit against a shit opponent. It reflects 1/6 of our performances to date.

And I understand what you were trying to do with the records. There are some circumstance in which the point you make should be kept in mind. This is not one of those circumstances. Those games were played and have an additional data point for the quality of the 2001 opponent that we're now comparing the 2021 ND squad to. The point you make is inapplicable to this exercise.

Data points

I understand your point. But you do need to keep in mind the quality of opponent that we beat this year (and their record reflecting a loss against us) then if you’re comparing 2001 opponents to 2021 opponents.

Also of note….I only was throwing out the Toledo buy game for our 12th game (that’s basically what every larger program has to do with the 12th game) to compare against an 11 game 2001 schedule. But yes, you should keep it in to compare data. And remember….that bad 2001 WVU team had a Sagarin rating of 83, while Toledo currently sits at 73 (2001 Navy was an ungodly 166, while 2021 Navy - as crappy as they are - are 118). I’m sure that if there was a 12th game back then, it would be another Group of 5 buy game as well.

Obviously there is no way to win a hypothetical argument. But I am guessing most computer models would say that 2021 ND would fare better than 5-6 against the 2001 schedule.