Interpreting that this is longer term, I'm at an 8

I think he will improve on the last 5 years - with the upgrade in recruiting, it's hard to imagine doing the same or worse. Whether he gets to a NC depends on how good a coach he is and how quickly he learns to become a head coach.

I'm already anticipating the 2022 starting with a loss - opening the season against the top QB and one of the top WRs in college football is not a recipe for a win. I'm certainly not going to get too worked up if season #1 has 3 or 4 losses, assuming every game looks competitive (well, except maybe OSU).