Successful off weekend. Up to 12th in the PWR.

Successful off weekend. Up to 12th in the PWR.
by wearendhockey (2022-01-23 10:11:51)

With ten games left in the regular season and games in hand against two teams in front of us and a series against the other, there are golden opportunities to improve on the current 4th place in the standings. With the league's solid standing in the PWRs (4 teams in the top 12 and another at 22) we can see some solid bumps northward if we take care of business.

The top-4 in the league are separated by just 9 points and Notre Dame, in 4th, has an 8 point lead on 5th place Wisconsin, who we also have games in hand on. There are clearly 4 good or very good teams in the conference and 3 who have no realistic hope of an at large bid to the NCAAs (Penn State may argue against that prediction but I'm going on record now that unless they win the conference tournament, they're golfing at the end of March).

We currently hold tiebreaks against 4 of the 5 teams left to play (only Minn has earned more points against us, in the first league series of the season). Notre Dame could still finish anywhere in the standings but just by splitting the remaining 30 points available (which in my mind would NOT be an acceptable close to the season) MSU, PSU or Wisconsin are not likely to overtake the Irish.

For the season to end on a good note this team needs to score more consistently. 10 times they have potted 5 or more goals in a game. The record in those 10 games is 10-0. 8 times though they have managed 2 or fewer goals. The record then is a miserable 1-7. While both goalies have played well (quite well some nights) they have not been the kind of netminders who will steal games for you. In 8 of the 10 games our netminders have allowed 2 or fewer goals we've fired 5 or more past the other team's goaltenders. Like it or not, our offense is absolutely the key to winning games. Notre Dame is 15-0 when they score three or more goals a night, including a 4-0 mark when they score exactly 3.

What I'd really like to see is the coaching staff finding ways to take advantage of our ability to outskate teams and better use our knack for skaters to create their own space. The 4-1 mark in overtime are great examples of this because in 3X3 play, quickness, puck support and decisive shot selection is how you score. While 3X3 hockey is very different than 5X5 hockey, the up front elements of it can be factored in.

Keep improving on the PP, stay solid on the PK, and find a way to 3 goals a night. Do that and they might actually take the regular season crown.

I like the optimism

But I still think OSU is in the driver's seat to win the regular season conf title. We really needed a sweep last weekend to have a chance.

We need to make up ground on OSU and it's not looking favorable. OSU has a much easier road. I think OSU probably ends up ahead of us in B10 standings.

OSU already benefitted from playing Mich in Dec when they were missing big guns (Bordeleau/Power/Johnson). And it looks likely they'll probably benefit again when they play both UMs in Feb (Gophers missing Meyers/Knies/Faber and Mich missing Power/Beniers/Brisson and maybe Johnson).

Irish get to face both UMs at full strength.

There should be a giant asterisk next to OSU if they finish on top of the standings. OSU will play half their games against arguably the 2 best teams in the conference while they have depleted rosters.

I'd rather face OSU in B10 tourney in the semis over either UM. So if OSU is the 1-seed, it might sound weird but I almost rather ND stays 4th. We match up better against OSU. And a road win in the semis would be a big PWR boost.

At the end of the day, I see ND making the tourney. Probably as a 3 seed but outside chance we can sneak into a 2.

Still lots of hockey to be played though. Anything can happen.

The conference stuff only means so much at this point. *