Don't get me wrong, we're not going to make the NCAAs, but there is a path to an at-large. CHN uses the KRACH to predict game outcomes, but if we sweep the final two series, we'd be knocking on the door. Sweep the Big Ten quarter-final and we might be in a defendable position. Win the semi-final and that might do it, as long as there are no upsets in the NCHC, Hockey East or ECAC.
But since almost none of that (or possibly none of that) is going to happen, we're not making the NCAAs.
Until recently I assumed the law of averages would give him his ND title sooner or later. I no longer have any hope of that happening and its time for fresh perspective.
It sucks - it has to be done - we have to dispassionately say goodbye. He might still deserve a statue if we find a reason to build a couple.
Even after 2019. Knowing that the BCs and North Dakotas and Michigans of the world lost a lot more than they won in the NCAAs I assumed if we continued to make the tourney with good teams, we'd win it at least once. UMD in 2018 and Michigan State in 2007 were not generationally great squads, but they found a way to a title.
JJ has been great, and literally built the program from being nothing more than an afterthought, both in the sport and at Notre Dame. He took the potential and turned it into something real. But if there is nothing but mediocrity or worse for 7 or 8 straight years that can all come apart and take forever to rebuild. If it ever would be rebuilt. We're five years into that now.
We're really no better over the last 5 years than we were from years 3-9 of Poulin's tenure. The potential this program had then made that not good enough. The history this program has now makes the last 5 years not good enough today.
I have similar frustrations, but it's not fair to overlook the fact that we had a darn good team that came close to the Frozen Four in 21-22. Outside of the last 15 minutes of the championship game, we probably gave a dominant MSU team its biggest challenge in the tourney (and they only beat us on a puck luck rebound).
That 21-22 team should've had Pastujov, but for reasons beyond JJ's control it didn't happen.
That 21-22 team also should've had B10 defensive POY Brock Faber, but for reasons beyond JJ's control it didn't happen. Gopher board said he committed to US, got homesick while at NTDP, and flipped to the Gophers (apparently this is what probably happened with Cole Eiserman flipping from Gophers to BU).
If we had Faber and Pastujov on that 21-22 team, we're probably a 1-seed with a decent shot at the trophy. Heck with Faber on the team in 22-23, we probably make the tourney last year. We made the tourney as well in 20-21 (although I think we would've been crushed by BC in the 1st round).
This is a different era of NCAA hockey (especially in the last couple years), so comparisons to the Poulin teams aren't really fair either. NIL/portal has changed the landscape. And the amount of talent that is choosing the NCAA route (overwhelmingly consolidated to a couple blue blood schools -- including 4 in the B10) has skyrocketed (especially since Michigan's class in 20-21).
Can't say I'm happy with the past couple weeks (UW especially looks like a team playing way above their pay grade that we should've beaten a couple times). But I'm still in the camp that it'd be a big step backward to force JJ out (and I doubt it happens). If it happens, the new AD better have a slam dunk replacement waiting in the wings.
The immediate success MSU and UW had with coaching changes can't be expected at ND. UW's problem was never talent/recruiting. MSU has NIL $$$ (amongst other reasons).
The coach matters less the more NIL becomes a factor.
There are absolutely things that still need to be addressed. I still think if anyone gets canned ("retired") it should be Pooley. The PP is still a mess. But I doubt that happens.
The likely short post-season for us give all 4 coaches the opportunity to hit the recruiting trail like their careers depend on it. This is Sheahan's first recruiting cycle. It'll be interesting to see what he can do.
It may be hard to imagine right now, but I still really like the trajectory for this team in 2 years.
Landon Slaggert was the last freshman to slot into the top-6. This year we have 3 freshmen that made that jump (Nelson/Knuble/Ali).
Fischer isn't known as an offensive D-man, but he quietly has the best PPG we've seen from a frosh D since Nardella in 15-16 (even though he wasn't on the PP until recently). He does need to cut down on the brain-fart turnovers though.
Kempf looks like a solid net minder.
On the back end, I think there's some better skaters coming in which should make a big difference. Klaers and Aucoin probably both have good shots at getting drafted.
Will Belle isn't a top-10 draft pick superstar, but there's a good chance he has a similar type freshman impact in 25-26 that D. Nelson had this year. Pardue/Stewart/Larrigan probably start in the bottom-6 whoever they get on campus, but have the skill to pop in depth points.
There's still a couple high end forwards uncommitted for 25-26 that we might have a shot at. Regardless, I think we can have a team similar to 21-22 built around speed, mobile/reliable puck moving D, 4 lines that can chip in scoring, and a good goaltender. Hopefully we can figure out the PP as well.
My crystal ball prediction -- No changes to the coaching staff this year. We go through this recruiting cycle. If NIL really gets out of control, JJ may call it quits after next season. Otherwise I bet he (and ND) will give it 2-3 more years to try and right the ship.
I realize the environment is different. But the fact is Poulin did not succeed in his, and Jackson is now struggling in this environment.
What the program is doing now is not working more often that it is working. And when I think about what has been posted here for years now, I recall different people have posited that recruiting is picking up, the next new crop looks promising, and we are this close to getting it all together. All of that still equates to us being nothing more than a middle of the pack Big Ten team for 6 straight years, not enough NCAA tournament success, and the same problems plaguing the program year after year. We are not seeing the shortcomings corrected.
Until the addition of Sheahan (and I think that coincided with the NCAA allowing another paid, full assistant) the coaching staff has been completely unchanged for the entirety of Jackson's tenure here. No other NCAA program comes close to that. Not even near. At one point that stability turned into nothing more than staleness. And yet with the same problems cropping up (lack of scoring, special teams issues, recruiting not panning out) nothing changes. Someone is responsible for that.
I realize the sport has changed, what with covid years, transfer portals, rosters overturning, and NIL. But this is the environment we're in now. Jackson appears to have very little affection for it. If so, move on and let someone with an affinity for 2024 take the reins.
so good that they will leave for NHL after 1 or 2 years? I always assumed he wanted players to stay 3 or 4 years and with that comes the 6th and 7th round draft picks who are good players but not real difference makers. Jackson's teams have always been the sum greater than the parts
Do those elite level of talent players not want to play in such a structured system?
The Fowler saga probably led to avoiding the headaches of high end recruits for some time.
JJ dipped his toe back in with McGroarty/Fleming who were both projected top-10 picks when they committed (think T Duke was also projected 1st round as well).
We don't get much recruiting news, but James Hagens did take an official visit last Fall before committing/signing with BC.
The current issue isn't JJ's willingness to get high end players on campus. It's getting the players on the roster. Which has been a problem for a variety of reasons (a number of which will be high hurdles any ND coach will have to overcome -- NIL, agents, NHL team meddling, homesick MN kids, etc).
Add in the fact we have a new AD who has zero sports/hockey background and I think it's not likely we see any coaching change. Maybe I'm wrong.
Notre Dame isn't likely to compete for top spots in the current environment. Like I said, you may not be saying that or thinking that. Frankly, it wouldn't be a complete shock if that was the case. NIL, constant transfers, 1st round picks bolting after a year if they show up at all where they initially commit, to me all of that sucks. Its one of the reasons I watch almost no college sports now, outside of Notre Dame. I am not a college football fan, or college basketball fan, I am a Notre Dame fan.
One thing that differs with hockey though when comparing it to football or basketball is the societal factors that probably make it a little easier to compete in hockey than football or basketball. I don't know how many of the top 100 basketball or football players Notre Dame can recruit but I do know they can recruit more of the top 100 hockey players.
I don't know, maybe Notre Dame can't compete in this environment. Maybe we missed our window and it closed 6 years ago. I have commented many times I wish Notre Dame would get around to winning a hockey title before I quit caring about ANY college sports. They'll probably bury me with this damn playoff beard I refused to shave off until Notre Dame won the whole damn thing.
There are barriers that should've been addressed years ago. But think it's recognized and being worked on now. And a number of those barriers would need to be addressed whether it's JJ or someone else behind the bench.
Hockey recruiting is such a crapshoot. The majority of the top kids commit early in their junior year, but even then it's hard to predict who will rise/fall in development.
Fleming is a prime example. He had 40+ offers when he committed in August 2020. He was projected around #10 in the draft rankings. And his development pre-ND just didn't live up to expectations.
100% agree the barriers to recruiting top-100 are different in hockey. It may not seem like it, but we are getting top-100 commits. What this board is looking for is the freshman who is a Hobey candidate the moment he steps on campus -- that's what we're missing out on.
What we can't have is our better commits in a class bail at the last minute. 21-22 and 22-23 set us back in building a competitive roster.
I don't think OSU/PSU really look much to recruit the top-25 kids in the current environment. This past cycle in August they were picking up 4 star type kids left and right (more kids in the 50-150 type range). Is that what we should be looking for? Maybe...that might be a better strategy that trying to compete vs BU/BC/Mich/MN and losing out on our targets (while plan B type players have committed elsewhere).
JJ did a podcast a couple weeks ago and talked about some of this stuff. Things like not targeting kids that have specific advisors/agents that won't get their kid on campus with us. And talking about targeting specific type kids for roles on the PP (something I think the staff has been terrible at over the years).
I'm optimistic that Sheahan will help target kids that fit what we need (less emphasis on size/physicality and more on skating/possession/puck moving). Looking at D commits I think that's happening.
And if we're kicked out in the first round of B10 tourney, the entire staff better be on the trail recruiting (including any kids they're thinking about taking in the portal). I think some of our portal "recruiting" has just been word-of-mouth and looking on paper rather than watching film. Brinkman on paper as a 4 year starter for the Gophers looked great...until you see him on the ice and realize he has cinder blocks attached to his skates (he's not the only transfer like that).
College sports as a whole is a lot less fun now that it has become more of a business.
Believe the players can use the NIL collective started by Brady Quinn (believe it centers on partnering with non-profits for charity work). Not sure if there are other ND collectives.
For comparison, Gophers have a NIL collective called Dinkytown Athletics (it even includes players getting a cut of beer/vodka sales LOL).
As far as individual NIL, Bischel held a goalie camp over the summer. And does some radio spots for a local bank. Other than that, haven't seen any other indication other players have personal NIL deals.
It's hard to verify the extent of NIL in hockey. Lots of rumors. But tough to tell who is telling the truth. Probably not wide spread except for the difference-making super high end kids where the recruiting battles are raging.
I stopped watching this years team when Simeone announced that BC had
four 1st round NHL draft choices in their freshman class. I realized
that ND had none on their entire team.
BC literally took the entire NTDP top line (all first rounders) and slotted them into their lineup this year. That has never happened before. How can any coach compete against that? No matter who is behind the bench, I don't see any Irish coach capable of recruiting at that level against the blue blood schools.
The problem isn't just more top talent choosing to go the NCAA route than ever. It's all that top talent consolidating at a few schools just in the past couple years.
The bigger problem for us is 4 of those schools consolidating the talent are in the B10. Just look at Michigan (2 1sts, 2 2nds, and 2 3rds on the roster) who won't finish better than 4th in the conference and is currently 15th in PWR. Even if we start landing some of the higher end guys, it'll still be an absolute dogfight in the B10 just for home-ice in the conference tourney.
HE it's really BU/BC separating themselves from others. NCHC it's DU/UND. It's a heck of a lot easier to compete for 3rd in those conferences (and get in the tourney) than it is in B10.
The B10 is a nightmare conference for tourney bids.
It'll be interesting to see how the tourney plays out this year. But the past 2 season, the Frozen Fours have been 3 #1 and a single #2 seed. With the loss of parity, are we in an era where #3 and #4 seeds really don't have much of a shot at winning it all?
It's borderline insane - but I want it.