Wilson, Turner, Mitchell, Atkins, Canada, Williams, and McCarty stayed at their original schools and had successful careers. Of course, we hope that the best is yet to come for Brianna Turner.
Lejahna Drummer has stayed at UCLA despite limited playing time for her first two years and missing her junior year due to injury. She made progress in her 4th year with 6 pts and 6 rebs per game.
Everybody else transferred. Gabby Green from Cal to Loyola Marymount; Jatarie White from South Carolina to Texas, Sierra Calhoun from Duke to TOSU; Recee Caldwell from UCLA to Texas Tech; and Sadie Edwards from Storrs to Southern Cal. All of the transfers seem to have been successful at their new schools, but none have won a championship.
UCLA had the top rated class in 2014 with Canada, Drummer, Caldwell, and your #19, Billings. The best Coach Close could do with that group was an NIT title, an Elite Eight, and two Sweet Sixteens.
Coach Aston had three of the top 13 playing for her this year(Atkins, White,and McCarty) and could only reach the Sweet Sixteen where they lost to UCLA in an interesting twist of fate. She has had three Sweet Sixteens and one Elite Eight during the past four seasons.
My first impression was mild shock at the number of transfers—5 of 13 or almost 40%. So a coach, with a typical roster of 13 players, should expect 5 of those to transfer? That’s outrageous. I guess one lesson we should consider, which is hinted at in this limited sample, is that the higher the rating, perhaps after the first five, the more likely the transfer.
The next impression is similar to when we looked at the top 13 Americans drafted by the WNBA—high school ratings seem to correlate to the pros. Wilson, Mitchell, Atkins, Canada, Williams were all drafted close to their HS ratings Only Brooke McCarty was not drafted, though some projected her to go in the 2nd or 3rd round.
Of the remaining seven, all but Sadie Edwards have another year of eligibility through injury or transfer before we can see how the pros view them. As MPG says, they seem to be successful.
Sadie Edwards transferred mid year so she is done. She also has her masters. I don’t know if she is pursuing a pro career or not.
Reece’ Caldwell has one more year, I think, but Texas Tech currently does not list her on next year’s roster. I don't know what's going on there.
MPG also addresses another issue—that top rated recruiting classes for a college, especially when they include 3 or 4 or more recruits, do not guarantee success.
I would like to quote NDoggie here with one of my favorite lines, “worry…we might actually get all those players we are dreaming about”
Nared, Thomas, Cowing, Nurse, Hines-Allen, and Ortiz played four years at their original schools and were among the best players for their teams during those four years.
Alyssa Rice never delivered great stats, but started 75/125 games during years of upheaval at Kentucky. Along the way, she earned a 3.9 gpa. She deserves some special recognition!
Our own Kathryn Westbeld deserves special mention because of all that she contributed to a championship team. In my opinion, she was playing her best basketball just before the first of her ankle injuries in her junior year. She was never 100% after that. If she and Brianna had not been injured during the final weeks of the 2017 season, ND would have made the Final Four and made a strong run for the championship.
Monique Billings didn't do much during her first two years at UCLA, missed her junior year with an injury, but started in her fourth year and should be a solid player as a 5th year.
Lynne Belton retired after three years at Duke because of injuries.
Only two transfers were in this group. Courtney Ekmark spent two years on the bench in Storrs and returned to ASU in her home state where she has done well. Mikayla Venson did well at UVA, but transferred to Georgetown (where her father played before he transferred to JMU) and has continued to be a good, not great player.
Recruiting is a tricky business because coaches need to find the right matches for their team as people and on the court by position and role within a given roster. I think post players are the most unpredictable because it is hard to know how they will develop when confronted with players who match or exceed their size and strength. Overall, a top five player each year is a good place to start with recruiting a championship team. ND didn't sign any for 2018, so let's see if Muffet can add another one to join Sam in 2019.