Bell-shaped curve and other thoughts
by SixShutouts66 (2020-07-28 14:25:07)

In reply to: Seeking advice (and a little game)  posted by BabaGhanouj


1. High school rankings are a valid discussion point to use for incoming frosh and perhaps sophomores. At some point they cease to be a good measure of the player's ability.

2. The ability of players, if you had a perfect ranking system, would resemble the normal distribution curve. The implication is that there may be a greater difference between players ranked 3 and 10 than players ranked 30 and 50.

3. Ideally I'd like to assign a certain number of points (say 5 -25) to each ranking position. For instance the top 3 rankings would be worth 24 points (25 points for a Griner or Stewart "generational player"). The next grouping might only be 22 points (to reward getting the truly elite recruits). This mitigates the unranked outliers a bit, although it becomes more work.

4. Your team ranking is the points for a mix of say 2 tall players and 3 guards/wings



I'm right with you.
by BabaGhanouj  (2020-07-28 15:10:27)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

1. I've incorporated an "experience" factor based on minutes of playing time. In addition, the first 1000 minutes are worth more than the next 1000, and the next.

I have started using Martin Manley Efficiency rating for how the athletes perform in college. (PER is just not worth it.) So far, I've kept performance separate from rating, but who knows?

2 and 3. I think I got this idea from you. I produced a complicated formula using various logs to value the better rated athletes from the others. I take the top 150 from each class and apply this formula. The result is that the difference between No. 1 and No.2 is 2.2, (i.e. If your avg. rating is "1", you end up ".77". If your avg rating is 2, you end up 2.96) between 2 and 3 is 1.9 (a little less then between 1 and 2.) The difference between No. 149 and 150 is .85. A lot of fluctuation between ratings occurs in the first 5 or 6 players and by 20 or 30, there is less than 1 between the players. I toyed with assigning points, like you say, for the first 5, then the next 5 or 10 or so, but, as you say, it gets complicated.

4. That's an idea I haven't really dealt with. It sounds good though.


It does get complicated
by SixShutouts66  (2020-07-28 18:00:03)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

especially how to group players.

The concept of #4 was based on a shortcoming the post-Wooden UCLA team had in that they seemed to recruited the same player (wing/shooting forward) and lacked a "good mix". I think we ended up with that sort of problem kast year, especially when Mik was hurt. It's the same concept that Georgia had with its QBs - great to have a top 3 recruit 3 years in a row, but only one can play at a time.