Champions Draw - Thoughts
by KnightlyRevue (2021-03-19 08:47:24)
Edited on 2021-03-19 08:49:11

Overall, I like the draw as there are plenty of compelling matchups.

The best battle will obviously be Bayern and PSG but I have a sense that Bayern is going to trash them. PSG is shambles in the back at times and has struggled in Liigue 1 with discipline. They can obviously put pressure on Bayern but I think they will have serious problems in the middle of the park.

Porto/Chelsea. Will be intriguing to see if Tuchel can continue their run. I think Porto has a chance to surprise.

Man City/Dortmund. I am curious to see which Dortmund shows up. They can be dangerous but Man City is obviously the favorite.

Madrid/Liverpool. The all injury final between two European titans. No idea what to make of it. Liverpool can give Madrid’s defense a ton of problems. Madrid is having trouble scoring at times but Liverpool’s defense has been trashed by injury. Unlike last year, Madrid is doing way better against high line presses and the teams that have given them trouble are the ones putting 10 men behind the ball. Toss up.

And then, we have Covid that can wreck it all. Should be fun.


B20 said the previous Porto/Juventus game was the greatest
by G.K.Chesterton  (2021-03-19 12:40:27)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

soccer game he had ever watched (in his young life). Perhaps Porto brings the same energy to their face-off against Chelsea.

Liverpool avoids Man City, Bayern, and PSG for another day.


Oporto's home stadium is "The Dragon"!
by Irish2003  (2021-03-21 18:47:54)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I love Notre Dame Stadium and if we ever become Google Field I'll cry, but "O Dragao/The Dragon" is a pretty hard one to top!

Along with Knightly I'm the other Madrid guy here, and my bracket would have had Ronaldo carrying Juventus (I'm still reading Pirlo's thesis, linked below as many of y'all may enjoy it, but as a soccer fan I'm glad even if it's a competitor) to a likely semi/finals loss to City, whom I think will unfortunately romp.

City
Tossup!
Bayern
Liverpool - I love Mo, but have a bad feeling he's going to go off against my team

City escapes Bayern the in the real final, then beats Liverpool to win it all. Ugh!


The away goal tie-breaker,
by DillonFightSong  (2021-03-20 09:56:41)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Even allowing for how seemingly arbitrary it is, is one of my favorite things in sports.


Agreed, but..
by wcnitz  (2021-03-20 10:02:37)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

It should cease to matter once a match goes to extra time.


That’s a fair point.
by DillonFightSong  (2021-03-20 18:15:13)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Although I should mention that Juventus losing is also one of my favorite things in sports.


Yep.
by NDBass  (2021-03-20 13:30:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

And I thought that even before Liverpool's loss last year. It is one of the few things I think MLS had correct in their playoffs when they had two legged ties.


It makes sense
by wcnitz  (2021-03-20 15:53:02)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Each team got a full match to get an advantage. Yeah, the home team still has their supporters but all in all, if it goes to ET in leg two, advancing should be based entirely on winning outright.


Regarding home team in ET...
by NDBass  (2021-03-20 16:27:47)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

The home team in the second leg either earned the right (finished first in group for round of 16) or "won" the draw (quarters/semis) to host the second leg. I think having ET at home is a justifiable reward for earning/winning the spot to host the second leg. Yes, a draw is random, but I think winning should be rewarded. With away goals counting in ET, the "losing" team is rewarded.

I do like your concept of having to win outright in this scenario. That actually means more to me than my convoluted logic, so I'll have to remember it if this ever comes up again.


If Neymar doesn't play or doesn't show up
by wcnitz  (2021-03-19 10:07:48)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I think Bayern will roll them. If he does, then I think it will be a good tie.

Overall, I think the QF matchups are fairly balanced. City can absolutely lose to Dortmund if Haaland gets hot. He doesn't need a ton of service, just chances.

And I firmly believe that Madrid matchup can go horribly wrong for Liverpool.


Dortmund looks one dimensional heading into the tie
by CuzTeahan  (2021-03-19 14:20:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Haaland score on anyone and will present a great challenge to the reformed City defense. I'm really interested to see how Pep game plans for him.

That said Sancho is out for at least the first leg (if not both legs) and Dortmund's defense is decimated with two starters and four players overall injured.

Pep seems to have found his best City team and movement this year, so hopeful can resist the odd tinkering in these quarterfinals.

To me Porto is the sleeper team- really dangerous, disciplined, and well-coached. I think they'll take a Chelsea that can't find goals.


PSG midfield is weaker than the Final...
by iudomer  (2021-03-19 10:58:47)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

yeah I think combined tie score will be 5-2 Bayern or something like that.


Not unreasonable *
by wcnitz  (2021-03-19 12:25:43)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Way to go out on a limb.
by NDBass  (2021-03-19 10:36:37)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Any matchup can go horribly wrong for Liverpool at the moment.


They're fully capable of pulling it out
by wcnitz  (2021-03-19 10:37:18)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

But they aren't coming out ahead in a goal fest, though.

I think it's actually going to come down to midfield play.


With a crowd at Anfield
by KnightlyRevue  (2021-03-19 10:52:02)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I think it would be way harder for Madrid (and Ramos in particular -- though he likes being the villain).

I am comfortable with Madrid's materials in midfield. Resting Modric and Kroos in La Liga and keeping Fede Valverde/Casemiro healthy (and available) is the key.


Liverpool isn't playing as high of a line now.
by NDBass  (2021-03-19 09:15:13)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Kabak and Phillips don't have the ability to do what Liverpool had been doing with other pairings. I think it is actually a blessing. We'll see if that continues against Arsenal. It's still higher than other teams, though. Based on current form, I can see this coming down to some huge blunder by either team. Or there will be an explosion of defensive ineptitude and 12 goals total over both legs.


It depends on who their playing.
by NDMike2001  (2021-03-20 12:05:33)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

They benefit from open games when teams play them. When teams play a low block then they’ll have a high line. Which is why they are susceptible against bad teams.

It’s an interesting dichotomy. They probably have as good a chance to beat Madrid as they do Burnley.


It's especially too bad they don't get a full Anfield
by miamioh_irishfan  (2021-03-19 10:51:32)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

for the Ramos redemption.


Madrid is finally getting healthy on the back line
by KnightlyRevue  (2021-03-19 09:20:11)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

and Zizou has switched the formation to a 3-5-2 to flood the middle of the park. I am not sure Carvajal will be ready for this round but I expect much tighter defense out of Madrid this next round. Sadly, Hazard is never going to play for Madrid so a lot of the pressure will fall on the kids (Vinicius, Rodrygo and Asensio). Vinicius shows flickers of being an elite player but Liverpool ain't Atalanta or Huesca. If he can step up on this stage it will be an important step in his development.

The goalie matchup here is also excellent. I know Allison has had some moments this year but he is elite. Courtois has been nothing short of fantastic this campaign.


QF Pep...
by iudomer  (2021-03-19 08:56:41)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

can't see how he tinkers to a 2-7-1 lineup that ultimately costs him against Dortmund.

Oh and I better hear a shit ton about City's high line against Haaland and Sancho.


'but the high line!' *
by wcnitz  (2021-03-19 10:05:36)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Exactly.
by KnightlyRevue  (2021-03-19 09:07:26)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I think Pep will have the guts to play aggressive but the stable of horses Dortmund can unleash with Haaland/Hazard/Sancho and Reus still playing at a high level can get you down 2-0 quickly if you are not careful.