Rest of season outlook: Hello NIT!
by rsmith18 (2019-01-05 14:15:26)
Edited on 2019-01-05 14:44:34

Dropping to 0-2 is pretty devastating for this team's chances for the NCAA tourney. 9-9 gets you in and 8-10 is probably not gonna cut it, although Cuse was 8-10 and ND was in for 48 hours before Davidson upset Rhode Island. On the bright side, this team really can't get worse.. Gibbs is finally starting to play well and Mooney and Durham are only getting better. Hubb is the big question mark - all of his shot attempts were threes which is asinine.

There are a lot of opportunities for good wins but also a lot of teams to lose to.

Upcoming schedule:
BC
@UNC
NCSU
@GT
UVA
Duke
@BC
@Miami
GT
@UVA
Wake
VT
@FSU
@UL
Clemson
@Pitt

In order to get to 9-9 and make the tourney, most likely will have to:
Wins: BC, NCSU, @GT, @BC, @Miami, GT, Wake, Clemson, @Pitt
Losses: @UNC, UVA, Duke, @UVA, VT, @FSU, @UL

They'll need to be 3-5 after the Duke game, losing to UNC, UVA, and Duke. From there the schedule eases up a bit. 6-6 after the game in Charlottesville if they take care of inferior opponents in BC, Miami, and GT.

I don't see it out of the question to get to 9 wins. NCSU would be a really good win and I'd argue BC, GT, Miami, Wake, and Pitt are worse than ND. The end of season schedule is pretty favorable, although 3 of the last 4 are on the road I don't see how they can't go 3-1.


I doubt we're making the NIT
by pmac98  (2019-01-07 10:18:42)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

don't we have to be at least .500 - is that still the rule for NIT selection?

Get ready for 4 conference wins.


Would be shocked with only 4 wins.
by rsmith18  (2019-01-07 12:15:03)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

If I had to guess right now I'd say 8. I think this team will improve but it might be too late if they don't get a few wins early.


Weird definition of a Davidson choke job.
by CrazyMary  (2019-01-05 14:34:55)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I'm not sure I even see ND getting in even if they somehow really improve and get to 9-9 in conference. It doesn't take beating any really good teams to get to 9 this season.

And ND's OOC schedule was putrid (KenPom #324). Tough loss to Radford who hasn't faired so well as of late. Best hope is Purdue improves and quick.


My apologies. Meant URI lost which cost ND a spot *
by rsmith18  (2019-01-05 14:41:35)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Davidson choked to Rhode Island? *
by Ajax  (2019-01-05 14:29:41)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Oops I meant URI sorry *
by rsmith18  (2019-01-05 14:41:17)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Things are about to get a whole lot worse
by garbageplate  (2019-01-05 14:16:59)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

KenPom is predicting 7 straight losses after the BC game. This season, like last year, is going to be another long, painful, joyless slog.


Pomeroy actually predicts 1.9 wins in that stretch *
by Tubes  (2019-01-05 19:35:48)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Fair point
by garbageplate  (2019-01-05 19:43:11)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

To clarify, the Pomeroy individual game results are all predicted losses in that stretch, but, yes, that does not mean that he's predicting zero wins in the aggregate.


It is hard to fathom years 2-3 after E8s
by Oggie  (2019-01-05 15:34:56)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Will be NIT tourneys. Injuries and no depth did us in last year and uneven and possibly flat out failed recruiting getting us this year.

Why are some of our highest rated recruits over-rated or coming off injuries or both?


Rather soon to declare a freshman overrated, no? *
by El Kabong  (2019-01-05 18:21:07)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Expectations v reality
by Oggie  (2019-01-05 19:37:22)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Around a third into the season and the recruit Brey said had to be the man is killing us on O and being requested to sit more by esteemed posters on this

Do you think he’s playing like a top 60 recruit?


So 10 games into a 120 game career, he's done? *
by El Kabong  (2019-01-05 20:36:21)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


“He’s done”?
by Oggie  (2019-01-06 11:14:00)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Who said that?


You did. Apparently he's overrated *
by El Kabong  (2019-01-06 14:52:09)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


See: Jackson, Demetrius
by DawsonMayes871  (2019-01-06 08:29:32)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

To drive home how unwise doing that can turn out to be.


DJ was a 42% shooter as a freshman overall & on treys
by Ajax  (2019-01-06 14:35:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Treys 25 for 60

Hubb is now 12 for 62

Not writing Hubb off and did not with DJ. As taxman noted, with his shooting numbers he is a major negative and should not start.


My point was...
by DawsonMayes871  (2019-01-06 19:01:18)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

...DJ was underwhelming to say the least as he adjusted to the college game. We beat Kansas and MSU head-to-head for him in recruiting and expectations were through the roof that he’d be an instant impact guy. Instead Vasturia was the one to make a much bigger stamp freshman year in that class.

This whole subthread was based off the notion Hubb is “overrated.” He’s not very good right now, hard stop. Patience before passing judgment served us well with DJ. Hopefully it will with Hubb as well.


Apparently not lol
by rsmith18  (2019-01-05 18:23:45)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Didn't you know these freshman won't really improve? They're basically finished products, just like Bonzie, Farrell, Grant, and Connaughton were coming into ND.


You made a post where you stated one is over rated
by Ajax  (2019-01-05 19:36:18)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

and now you come back with a reply post that pokes fun of over rated posts directed at the current freshman.

Wow- beyond SMH. You recall the movie Sybil?

I tend to agree with you that Hubb sure seems over rated- but that's not my point.


Yeah so far Hubb has been overrated. That doesn't mean he
by rsmith18  (2019-01-05 19:53:17)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

can't and won't improve lol. His ranking was also based on his performance before his ACL injury.


Your post is the question everyone should ask Brey but won't *
by Wolfetone  (2019-01-05 15:57:43)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Which highest rated recruits are overrated?
by rsmith18  (2019-01-05 16:16:07)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Hubb is overrated and coming off injury.
Harvey is probably a bit overrated and coming off injury
Laszewski is properly rated.
Goodwin is properly rated.

Hubb was the only one injured in high school and that happened after he committed to ND in the summer going into his senior year


My post referred to Oggie stating that we made 2 elite 8's..
by Wolfetone  (2019-01-05 20:27:24)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

And now play for NIT bids. Hubb needs more time coming off surgery. Too
soon to write him off...


Referring to the first two you mentioned
by Oggie  (2019-01-05 17:37:08)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Unless massive improvement pending, but even thinking back to T Francis, who may be MB’s highest rated recruit


Yeah no shot they lose 7 straight...
by rsmith18  (2019-01-05 14:22:44)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

So they'll be 1-2 after i'm assuming they beat BC.

@UNC - L
NCSU - Most likely L but could see them winning
@GT - W
UVA - L
Duke - L
@BC - W
@Miami - W

At worst they would go 2-5 in that 7 game stretch. Literally no chance they lose all 7 of those. If they want to have any chance of making noise, they'll need to go 4-3 which isn't out of the question at all. NCSU at home will be a good game. They haven't really been tested but ND's 3 pt defense is a major cause of concern as Cuse just hit the most they have all year


Didn't we lose ~7 straight this time last year? *
by basicbasket  (2019-01-05 14:35:01)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Well, I'm glad you've decreed it to be so
by garbageplate  (2019-01-05 14:24:56)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Probably would be wise to disabuse yourself of any fantasies about making the NCAA tournament and recalibrate expectations based on how the team actually looks.

We aren't good.


Agreed, We aren't very good, develop the team
by DomerJon  (2019-01-05 15:50:57)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

as Taxman said above and next year should be solid. Laz gains strength, Hubb finds his shot and this can be a dangerous team next season.


Never said we are making NCAA tourney.
by rsmith18  (2019-01-05 14:29:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I said if they go 9-9 they'll make it and pointed out how they should be around 9 wins based on the schedule.

I know you claimed Kenpom said ND would lose 7 straight after BC but that's just not going to happen. Sorry.

This team will if I had to bet right now go 8-10 in the ACC... Not 4-14 like you're suggesting.


"I don't see it out of the question to get to 9 wins"
by garbageplate  (2019-01-05 14:30:22)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Let me help you here: it's out of the question.


If you look at the schedule it's really not...
by rsmith18  (2019-01-05 14:36:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

If you took the time to look at the opponents, how is it out of the question to beat:
BC
NCSU
@GT
@BC
@Miami
GT
Wake
Clemson
Pitt

Only NCSU is ranked. BC and GT lost their best players by far from last year (2 first round picks). Wake and Pitt are absolutely terrible. Miami lost their 3 best guys, including 2 to the NBA. Clemson is a tough experienced team but it's at home.

So NCSU and Clemson would be huge wins. How is it out of the question again to get to 9? This ND team will improve as the season progresses.


Thanks- yeah, I can read the schedule
by garbageplate  (2019-01-05 14:47:46)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

It's not out of the question to beat some of those teams but it is out of the question to beat all of them. Shit, we could lose to any of those teams.

We aren't a good team. Accept it and move on.


I think this team will improve but it might be too late.
by rsmith18  (2019-01-05 14:53:00)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

We'll see. I'm happy we saw Gibbs play really well and hopefully that can continue. Mooney and Durham have proven to be very good. Harvey will only get better, just as Nate and Goodwin will. Hubb needs to eventually start making shots, right?

Most likely won't get 9 wins but i'm excited to watch these young guys improve throughout the season and for next year as Rex and Carmody will join and ND won't lose anyone.


Yes on Hubb making shots
by Ajax  (2019-01-05 14:57:17)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I predict there will be games where he makes one shot (like Va Tech).


Missed the game, was Hubb wide open on his three
by Carlos Huerta  (2019-01-05 15:02:09)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

point attempts? He's now under 20% and attempting over four a game, that's a historically bad pace.


Mostly wide open.
by DomerJon  (2019-01-05 15:32:52)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

It's not the missing that is bad. It's the missing the rim part that bothers me. I think he grazed the rim on one. Djgo should get a few more minutes in my opinion.


IIRC 3 were fairly wide open
by Ajax  (2019-01-05 15:08:48)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

one was an end of the shot clock heave.

The one he took to start the second half was 30 feet out and an airball.

Opposing coaches will be leaving him open.

FWIW another poster noted that Fatts Russell at RI is 15 for 83.


Yes. Wide open on all of them, including an air ball *
by rsmith18  (2019-01-05 15:07:43)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post