(Notre Dame Football News | The Rock Report) – As mentioned in part one, don’t go betting your lunch money on Kelly’s success based on what follows. Instead, think of this exercise as akin to a blood pressure check, meaning passing simply shows there are no obvious signs of ill-health. Remember that Weis and Willingham both had impressive first years and later bombed. Likewise, having a great blood pressure doesn’t mean you won’t die of some ailment tomorrow.
As a reminder the genesis of this exercise was a debate on Rocks House about how Kelly’s first year compares to the “home run” coaches in the game. Specifically posters looked at win improvement and scoring margin. In trying to get an objective view, I used Sagarin ratings to see how Kelly measured up to the best coaches in the game. Why Sagarin? Simple, he has a long enough history to benchmark coaches, has rankings, wins against top teams and also looks at strength of schedule. Sagarin may not be perfect, but it is consistent and objective.
Rank
When it came to overall performance, Meyer led the way in the rankings followed by Kelly and Stoops.
- Meyer: 19 Florida A = 83.95 ( 40)
- Kelly: 19 Notre Dame A = 82.47 ( 22)
- Stoops: 27 Oklahoma A = 81.35 ( 63)
- Saban: 31 Alabama A = 79.26 ( 30)
- Tressell: 35 Ohio St. A = 78.96 ( 37)
- Carroll: 37 Southern C al A = 78.47 ( 24)
Win Improvement
Meyer also led the way in win improvement with a two game advantage over 2004 (using the baseball method here) followed by Stoops and Kelly. Saban and Carroll finished one game above the previous year’s finish.
- Meyer +2
- Stoops +1.5
- Kelly +1.5
- Saban +1
- Carroll +1
- Tressell -1
Win Improvement Over Top 30 Teams
No coach notched a win over a top 10 team. The next category Sagarin looks at is wins over top 30 teams (Sagarin chooses this and the top 10 to measure.) Here, Meyer and Kelly both improved by 2+ games. Notre Dame was 0-4 in 2009 and went 2-1 in 2010.
- Kelly +2.5
- Meyer +2
- Saban +1
- Stoops +1
- Carroll +1
- Tressell 0
Rank Improvement over Previous Season (SOS change)
It starts to get more interesting when you look at who improved his team’s rankings the most from the previous season. It’s here that Kelly and Saban stand out moving up 29 and 24 places respectively. Stoops was next with a 20 place improvement.
- Kelly + 29 (+15)
- Saban + 24 (0)
- Stoops + 20 (-43)
- Carroll + 14 (-14)
- Meyer + 11 (+17)
- Tressel – 14 (-4)
Conclusion
I don’t think any sane fan is looking at Kelly’s first year as a rousing success, but neither is it out of align with the benchmark group by this admittedly broad measure. That he performed while facing adversity and without most of his starting skill players is promising as is the strong finish to the year. That written, the comparisons get much harder next year. Tressel, Meyer and Stoops all won a National Championship in year 2. Carroll and Saban both finished in the top 10.
Alan Mirabelle says:
Interesting! A top ten finish is not out of the question for next year. However, ending the season with a high-level bowl victory would have to be part of the equation for Kelley’s second year to be truly successful. Falling just short of that mark, although acceptable, would leave as many questions as answers and would not necessarily be a plus for 2012 recruiting.
Having seen great improvement in the performance of many of our players, especially the two Smith boys and Robert Hughes, I’m encouraged that player development is in fact a strength of Coach Kelly and his staff. Also, I really was impressed by the way the defense, the offense and the special teams played together as units, at the end of a season of great challenges and against decent competition,
Unfortunately, it is premature to draw any meaningful conclusions about how successful Kelley and his staff will be as recruiters, in the long run, and how well Kelley will adapt his spread offense to our unique needs and the skill set of our players. Yes, there have been rays of hope in these two areas, but also there has been enough evidence to create doubt. Having said that, my glass is still half full.
Whitecoat says:
I have always watched the list of 4 and 5 star candidates that ND lands every year, and have normally disdained the 3 star players. My complaint about Willingham was that he recruited mostly 2 and 3 star players, and even wrote him about it. Until this year. I decided to look at the TCU and Boise State players, only to find out that both schools recruited about 95% 2-3 stars, and Boise only had 2 4-stars.
Then came Auburn…..who was this kid Fairley……yes, 3-star. And that Mich. State linebacker, Greg…yes, 3-star. And Martin from Boise….2 star. My conclusion now is that there is certainly a lot more to having a good “team” and player development plays the best role. Evidence shows that just beause you come in a 4-5 star means nothing on how you develop and “leave” as a 3-star. Kelly has a reputation for player development, and if he’s as good at it as his reputation in the past, then ND is in good hands long term.
Whitecoat
Joe Schulz says:
Two Comments:
Anyone seeing this team at the beginning and then at the end of the season, knows there was a dramatic improvement despite the many problems along the way. That made the season a “rousing success.” The use of “sane” in your conclusion was “intentionally offensive” and, therefore, “stupid.”
Suggesting that the standard for Kelly’s year two result is a national championship is “insane.” You picked the comparison group on this basis. That is “setting the man up to fail.” Get off your high horse and admit that he has neither failed nor begun to fail on any reasonable standard. The question that this article leads to is, “Why do you want him to fail?”
When a child answers with a negative to all reasonable options the typical parent says, “OK, what is your choice?” If not Kelly, who do you wish were coach? Picking at the man just because he’s there is not fair and certainly not reasonable. It’s easy to be negative; but what a way to live.
Bill McDonald says:
My conclusion: it’s too soon, after just one season, to make any conclusion at all.
However, I have a prediction to make: there is a not insignificant probability that when Kelly is finished coaching at ND, he will be looked back upon as akin to Dan Devine: not bad at all, but not much loved, and not up to the quality of the best 4 coaches who reigned at ND (we all know who they are).
Eugene says:
I think this is a great article and I agree with the progress. However, I wouldn’t judge Kelly against Weis and Willingham and their initial success. Both had success out of the gate and floundered at the end in either the regular season or bowl games. Kelly’s team did the complete opposite this season. We were starting to display the same ol cardiac kid syndrome after the Michigan State game and with all the surrounding issues, ND got better. Pulling through that kind of adversity to win against quality opponents and the bowl game says far more than just the record.
Dave B says:
Can you compare to Weis’s first year and Willingham’s? If you do, I think you’ll find that these statistics are not worth much.
Mikey says:
I keep thinking we are all settling for limited success and hoping for a marquee break through season.This season was as much marked by the death of a student filmer and the assault allegations as any wins. I don’t know that this guy has it. Self-depreciation in quotes is certainly a reversal of his immediate predecessor. But it is not charisma. Yes, we have to wait until his recruits are the main body of the team. But ND has shown frightful reluctance to do that lately. A C season. Is this as good as it is gonna get? As non-major or mid-major teams, Boise State and TCU are obviously years ahead of Notre Dame’s proud (outdated) allegiance to its independence. Even Stanford supplanted the Irish in the national competition. And they were second in a conference.
Ryan says:
You wrote that Kelly’s position among these first-year benchmark coaches is “promising” when the injuries and controversy are taken into account. Did any of those coaches have to contend with so many injured starters, the adversity of Sullivan’s death/ Seeburg’s accusations, and virtually non-existant depth in the secondary during their first years? I doubt it, and while I can appreciate your desire not to “drink the Kool-Aid” after only one season, I don’t think you’re giving Kelly enough credit on this point.
Lastly, will Kelly be adjudged a failure if we don’t win a National Championship next year? What if we don’t make a BCS bowl? What if we’re 10-2 and playing West Virginia in the Champs Sports Bowl?
For the first time since I started following ND football closely under Davie, I’m truly optimistic about the program’s future. Yes, we lost some games we shouldn’t have; we’ve been doing that for years. But for the first time I recent memory, we actually won some games we weren’t supposed to win.
Any honest evaluation of Kelly should take into account the depth to which our program had sunk before his arrival; too often our fans pass judgment based on where they think we “should” be, which usually has no basis in reality, and hasn’t for the last 20 years.
bernie bieg says:
With both Weis and Willingham, their initial success did not show how their teams would react when things did not go well. When we found out, it was pretty obvious that they did not know how to stop the ship from sinking and things only got worse.
In a way I’m glad Kelly did not go 10-2. This season had all the makings of a disaster and it took a “real “coach with a solid staff to rescue the ship. Got a feeling we are now going to see how he coaches when things are going well.
Patrick says:
I think you have to become a little perochial when it comes to judging the choice of a head football coach in college. I believe that the most important part of a team is chemistry. That is, how does the team view itself in relation to the coach. Does the coach have a personality like a person you would like to be your father? Does he know intuitively when to give a kick in the pants or a pat on the back or even more importantly to do neither? Is he honest, is he fair? Does he know x’s an O’s? Can he out smart other coaches? In other words does he have a good handle on human nature? Can he hold his temper? How big is his ego? Does he feel he is in it for more than the money? Is his biggest thrill seeing his players succeed on the field and off? Thes are the things that I so admire in the coaches that Notre Dame has had like Knute Rockne and Ara Parchegian I also think of Dan Devine and Lou Holtz. I also think of Brian Kelly.
Geoffrey says:
So much for the objective measuring stick. I feel more optimistic about next season than I have felt in the last 18 years. Subjectively I feel that our team is in good hands. I have been disappointed before, but somehow, I have a feeling that next season is different.
kmjackson says:
The ND Nation folks were not very supportive of the Kelly hire as I recall it. I hope this does not color their future reporting of him. Kelly did an excellent job this year. Does he have to maintain progress to satisfy expectations: yes. Is it reasonable to hope that he can establish a program the consistently wins 9-13 wins a year: yes. If we do this might we snag a NC or two during his reign during “good” years: yes. Will this be good enough for the ND fan base: undecided.
kevhurls, '89 says:
– and BK does.
terry says:
The story is told that in the BC locker room prior to a game with Notre Dame the BC coach asked his players – “Everyone here who was recruited by Notre Dame raise your hands.”
Not a hand went up.
BC 17 – ND 0.
It took Jim Harbaugh 4 years to go from 1-11 to 11- 1 at Stanford, and we ALL remember the whipping administered to ND last season as Harbaugh stood on the sideline urging his players on.
Stanford beat USC AT USC when ND couldn’t come close. (We’ll see, of course, what a difference COACHING makes next season for Stanford.)
How to measure a coach? What you do with what you’ve got. Plain and simple.
IMO Coach Kelly has laid a solid foundation for future success this past season. There is a solid recruiting class on the way with room for a few more, a battle @ QB that will light up this site in the next few months, especially when spring training starts, Michael Floyd is returning, with all the injuries last year the depth is building up – the future looks bright ahead!
Well done, coach.
231 days until kickoff!
terry says:
In the 2009 season at Cincinnati Kelly took a team of primarily 2 & 3 star players and coached them to a 12-0 record and a final ranking at #5. Granted they got wiped out by Florida in the Sugar Bowl but that is still an impressive accomplishment – you judge a coach by what he does with what he’s got.
I look for 2011 to be good out of the gate, starting in 2012 they should be in the top 10 every year.
Kelly is the right man for the job.
El Kabong says:
The problem with them having been “wiped out by Florida” is Florida represents the level of competition ND usually faces — a level Kelly had very little experience with when he arrived in South Bend.
Notre Derek says:
However, every level prior to ND, Kelly has risen to the challenge, met it and conqured it. He took what he had and made them great. I believe the same thing will happen at ND. Does Cincinnatti routinely face the strength of schedule that ND does, nope, but if you look at Cinci when Kelly was there and look at ND during the same time period. Cinci would’ve beat ND, IMHO. Now that he has a national stage with a national spotlight on him, Kelly will rise to the challenge again and ND with him.
Scarz says:
Cincinnati was also crushed by the very recent departure of their coach and placed in the hands of an interim coach that had not been the one calling the plays. On top of that, Cincinnati gave the interim coach false hope before naming Kelly’s successor just before the bowl game. The coach had no hope of advancement regardless of how the game that he was poorly prepared for played out. That Cincinnati team – and more importantly, the remaining coaching staff – had broken spirits and nothing to play for. Kelly left them for ND in a hurry but the Cincinnati AD handled the situation atrociously. I’m surprised the game did not turn out worse than it did.
And, yes, Cincinnati would have beat the snot out of ND that year.
Patrick says:
This year’s recruiting is an example of Kelly stepping up to the next level. Notre Dame went 6-6 with Clausen, Tate, Floyd and Rudolph under Weis. The Irish have been successful in getting the skilled offensive players, but couldn’t get it done on defense. 2011’s signing of Lynch, Williams, Tuitt, Councell, Rabassa etc. is the statement Irish fans have been hoping for.