Notre Dame travels to Michigan this week for an early season test that has become a must win game for Brian Kelly and his squad. The Irish have managed to lose to the Wolverines in each of the past two seasons despite having a more talented group of players. First-year Michigan Coach Brady Hoke would probably deny that his program is in a rebuilding mode, but the number of new faces in the lineup and the presence of holdovers that do not exactly fit his offensive and defensive schemes indicates that his work to reshape this program after the ill-fated Rich Rodriguez era is just beginning.

None of the aforementioned concerns in Ann Arbor can guarantee a victory for the Irish, who responded to high expectations with a miserable opening day performance against South Florida. Tommy Rees has been named the starting quarterback on the strength of his ability to lead a second half rally last week. His supporting cast remains intact, but more production from pass receivers not named Michael Floyd is an absolute necessity. Kelly must also figure out a way to get into the end zone after his team committed three turnovers inside the opponent’s ten yard line.

The running ability of Michigan’s quarterbacks has doomed Notre Dame in the last two contests, and the dangerous Denard Robinson returns in that role this year. The junior ran only eight times for 46 yards in the mismatch against Western Michigan, but he will be the focal point for the Irish defense. Robinson is highly accurate in the short passing game and likes to throw on first or second down to keep defenses off balance. Completions beyond 15 yards are rare, so the key for the Wolverines is to avoid third and long situations.

A nationally televised game will take place starting at 8:00 PM EDT, marking the first-ever night game at Michigan Stadium. Notre Dame should be seething after suffering through the South Florida game film and driving its head coach to near apoplexy on numerous occasions during the twice-delayed marathon last Saturday. The late start this week will only add to the anxiety for players and fans alike, so it will be interesting to see if the Irish can play to their potential in a game that could define their season.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN’S DEFENSE

Kelly reiterated the importance of the running game in discussions with the media this week. He had to abandon it early last week due to the 16-0 first half deficit, but a pocket passer like Rees with limited mobility will need a way to keep blitzing linebackers and safeties at bay. The Wolverines’ Jordan Kovacs had two sacks against Western Michigan from his strong safety position, so Hoke is not afraid to dial up the pressure when his opponent must throw the ball.

Cierre Wood’s 104 yard performance last week is cause for optimism, but Notre Dame lacks a bulldozer type back who can pound the ball into the end zone from close range or act as a lead blocker in short yardage situations. Kelly used defenders such as linebacker Steve Filer as lead blockers on a few occasions against South Florida, but one of those plays resulted in whiffed blocks and Jonas Gray’s fumble.

The Wolverines have an experienced front four led by pass rushing end Craig Roh and senior tackle Mike Martin. Brandon Herron, whose two defensive touchdowns (interception and fumble return last week) caused him to be named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week, leads the linebackers. This front seven is no more fast nor formidable than South Florida, however, and the Irish should be able to maintain a balanced attack unless they create another large deficit for themselves.

Floyd can expect double coverage in the passing game until Theo Riddick and T.J. Jones prove they can hurt teams on a regular basis. Each had key drops last week and otherwise failed to take advantage of numerous opportunities. While Michigan will not be able to completely shut down Mr. Floyd, an over-reliance on him by Rees may lead to interceptions.

Kelly had enough concerns at quarterback last week without putting Andrew Hendrix or Everett Golson in the game for a change of pace and threat to run from that position. As the team must now adjust to the switch to Rees, it is unlikely that we will see any new wrinkles this week.

MICHIGAN’S OFFENSE VS. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

The Wolverines benefitted from two defensive scores against a weak opponent last week, so they could afford to play very conservatively with the football. Robinson threw only 13 times for 98 yards and Michigan’s offense did not dominate to the extent one might expect. Hoke has several interchangeable parts at running back and wide receiver, but Robinson is the player with star power. Notre Dame must contain him first and foremost, and should win if they are successful in this endeavor. It won’t be easy.

Hoke will deploy a pair of backs with similar ability and above average speed. Fitz Toussaint will start and senior Michael Shaw will provide relief. Each performed well and broke off a long run last week, but the competition is much different this time around. The Irish defense “played well enough to win” against South Florida according to Kelly, and the extra motivation of redeeming themselves in the battle with Robinson should produce a strong performance. Emphasis will be on the ability of the Irish linebackers to fill their respective lanes and contain the edge to prevent the big plays and back-breaking third down conversions.

The Irish secondary will match up with Michigan’s Roy Roundtree, who made a key reception to set up the game-winning pass a year ago, and deep threat Junior Hemingway. Kevin Koger is a sure-handed and experienced tight end. When Robinson does throw the ball, he favors the quick outs and slants, and Notre Dame’s defenders should not be afraid to jump those routes early.  The Irish were victimized by soft coverage last weekend and should be willing to mix things up against Michigan.

The battle up front is critical because the Wolverines will run the ball all day if Notre Dame cannot stop them. Center David Molk leads an offensive line that is competent but not stellar by Michigan standards.  Still, this group can help generate big plays if the Irish linebackers are out of position or a step slow in covering the sidelines. This will be an area to watch as the game unfolds.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The first order of business for Notre Dame is to catch punts cleanly. Theo Riddick struggled mightily with poor technique against South Florida and fumbled one away inside his own 20. That’s simply inexcusable. The Irish coverage teams were solid with Bennett Jackson leading the charge. Another area of concern emerged when the usually reliable David Ruffer hooked a very makeable field goal attempt and barely made a couple of extra points. The scoring margins against Michigan are typically small, so every point is precious. Finally, punter Ben Turk turned in a very shaky opening game performance and needs to improve his hang time and consistency.

The Wolverines were not very good in kick and punt coverage last week, nor did their return game deliver positive field position. To make matters worse, kicker Brendan Gibbons missed his only two field goal attempts and had an extra point blocked. Freshman punter Matt Wile was adequate but netted only 33 yards per boot.

SUMMARY

The Irish appear to have the upper hand with a more balanced and productive offense despite the quarterback change, but Robinson could be the equalizer if he is allowed to run free. His 500 yards of total offense against Notre Dame last season must not be repeated or even approached. Questions regarding the overall speed of the Irish defense persist, and the linebackers other than Manti Te’o have a lot to prove. Hoke’s offense is relatively conservative at this stage of its development, and the Irish will have to force them to take undesirable chances. It should be noted that the Wolverines did not commit a turnover last week.

Clearly, Notre Dame needs a victory to right a ship that slammed into an iceberg last week. While the team should start the game with its hair on fire, the true test will be how the players react when adversity strikes. The confidence gained in the second half of the 2010 season must resurface rather than the propensity to lose so many games to teams with inferior talent during the last few years. It would also help if the head coach did not become absolutely unhinged when a player makes a mistake. Kelly’s histrionics were the subject of much discussion this week, and he acknowledged that he must display better control of his emotions in an interview with Sports Illustrated this week. Fewer turnovers and personal foul penalties will certainly help that situation.

Let’s examine a few questions that will hill help determine the outcome…

Will Notre Dame be able to contain Robinson and the overall speed of Michigan?

How well will the Irish execute in the red zone?

Which special teams and kicker will improve over last week’s poor performances?

Can Riddick and Jones make significant contributions?

Will Notre Dame be able to tighten up its pass coverage and take away the easy ten yard completions?

Can the Irish protect Rees from a variety of Wolverine blitzes? 

Which team will have a higher average per carry in the running game?

PREDICTION

It’s safe to conclude that Notre Dame will be on a mission in this game and will certainly show marked improvement. This is because anything worse than last week is simply unimaginable. The problem is that Michigan is not likely to roll over on its own turf, and history suggests that strange things happen to the Irish in this venue that turn victory into inexplicable defeat. If Notre Dame plays with poise and confidence, they will win. The question is whether the extra motivation be a positive force or simply will cause them to press. My sense is that the Irish will turn what could be a fairly comfortable win into another nail-biter, but they will still have just enough juice to prevail.

NOTRE DAME 28  MICHIGAN 27