Depleted Irish Face High Scoring Jackets

Ninth-ranked Notre Dame returns home after a costly win in Virginia to face undefeated and 15th rated Georgia Tech on Saturday in an important contest that will bolster the post-season aspirations of the winner. Paul Johnson’s Yellow Jackets run a well-honed option attack and have scored 131 points in their first two games, admittedly against weak competition. DeShone Kizer will get his first start at quarterback for the Fighting Irish, after coming through for the injured Malik Zaire last week with a game-winning touchdown pass to Will Fuller. NBC will televise the action beginning at 3:30 PM Eastern time.

The Irish must pull together after losing Zaire and tight end Durham Smythe to season-ending injuries in the second half of the Virginia game. The losses came after tailback Tarean Folston went down against Texas and nose tackle Jarron Jones was injured in training camp. All four will not play again in 2015. To make matters worse, two key defenders, linebacker Joe Schmidt and safety Max Redfield, are playing with broken thumbs.

As for Georgia Tech, Coach Paul Johnson is well known to Notre Dame fans. Johnson led Navy to an historic triple overtime upset at Notre Dame in 2007, defeating the Irish 46-44 and snapping Navy’s 43-game losing streak in the series. Johnson is now in his eighth year with the Yellow Jackets (60-35) and his 19th season overall (167-74). He previously coached at Georgia Southern University, where he was succeeded by current Irish Defensive Coordinator Brian VanGorder.

Marshall The Yellow Jackets have racked up very impressive offensive statistics to date with their option attack. Quarterback Justin Thomas leads a group that has scored 19 touchdowns in two games, rushed for an average of 457 yards at 8.5 yards per carry, and has not experienced a single three and out possession. Furthermore, Tech has not been forced to attempt a field goal as they are a perfect 12 for 12 in red zone touchdowns. Of course, the question is how well they will do against significantly better competition this week, but there is no doubt that Notre Dame’s defense must be ready for an intense battle.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. GEORGIA TECH’S DEFENSE

While defense has not been a strength for Georgia Tech in recent years, the current group appears to be solid. The front seven is anchored by a trio of seniors – tackles Jabari Hunt and the highly regarded Adam Gotsis, plus middle linebacker Tyler Marcordes. The first unit has not been on the field for many snaps, as the first two games have been decided well before halftime.

The quandary for Coach Brian Kelly is in deciding how to attack the Yellow Jackets. Logic dictates patience and ball control to keep the Tech offense on the sidelines, but Kelly likes to use the passing game to get out to an early lead and force the opponent to adjust its game plan. The problem with a reliance on the pass is the pressure it will put on Kizer, who has struggled with accuracy during spring and fall practice sessions. It should also be noted that Georgia Tech’s starting secondary is made up of four capable seniors, although none of them can cover Will Fuller without help. The Irish simply can’t afford to commit turnovers and dig a hole similar to the Oklahoma game in 2013.

DeShone Kizer That’s not to say Notre Dame should lack confidence in Kizer, but he will be operating with a streamlined set of plays and needs to find himself in favorable down and distance situations as much as possible. Since Kizer does not pose the running threat that Zaire brought to the table, he must be efficient in his passes and spread the ball around to multiple receivers. Conversely, the Yellow Jackets will try to take away the running game and the deep ball to Fuller in order to put more pressure on Kizer and the other wide receivers. The Irish have the weapons to prevail, but the key will be the number of productive possessions they will have.

Should Kizer find himself in obvious passing situations, expect the Yellow jackets to bring some heat. “It’s kind of our M.O.,” Johnson said. “We need to bring pressure. We’re not very good at getting (to the quarterback) with four people, so we’ve got to bring pressure. To this point, we haven’t been a very good coverage team, so we need to sic ’em and go get ’em.”

GEORGIA TECH’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Thomas, a junior team captain who was the MVP of Georgia Tech’s Orange Bowl thrashing of Mississippi State, leads the Jackets. He typically hands off to one of three teammates – a classic fullback type called a B-Back in this offense, or a pair of halfbacks known as A-Backs. Stanford transfer Patrick Skov handles the B-Back position and is backed up by Marcus Marshall, the teams leading rusher who sports a 15.8 yard per carry average. The A-Back group features the swift Broderick Snoddy and a stable of others. Thomas is also a dangerous runner.

GT Celebration The offensive line is a formidable group for the Yellow Jackets, who led the nation in rushing for 2014. Four of five starters return from last season, and Johnson has plugged in 6’7” 366 lb. Shamire Devine at right guard to fill the vacancy.

In the passing game, Tech is replacing two quality starters with underclassmen Michael Summers and Ricky Jeune. Summers has two touchdown receptions, but the team has thrown only 15 times this season with 12 completions. Thomas may need to execute more pass plays against the Irish, but he is confident in his young receivers. “For the most part, you have one-on-one coverage with our guys, and we expect our guys to win those matchups,” Thomas said. “When we throw the ball, we expect big plays”.

Notre Dame spent additional time preparing for the option attack in fall camp, in anticipation of this matchup and the annual meeting with Navy three weeks hence. At the time, Kelly and VanGorder praised the scout team’s effort, but the key to this game will be gap discipline and crisp tackling. The Irish have struggled against this type of offense in recent years, and the skill level of Georgia Tech’s backs and linemen are an order of magnitude better than the service academies.

SPECIAL TEAMS

There is really insufficient data to evaluate the specialists for the Yellow Jackets, as they have punted only three times and have not attempted a field goal. Harrison Butker is a veteran kicker who has missed one of 19 extra point attempts (he was probably just tired). Punter Ryan Rodwell averages 41 yards but does not typically allow any return yardage. For Georgia Tech, Jamal Golden handles both punts and kickoffs, and already has two long punt returns to his credit.

Kicker Justin Yoon has been solid but not perfect for Notre Dame, having missed one makeable field goal attempt in each game. Tyler Newsome has exceeded expectations as the team’s punter, and the coverage units have been solid to date. C.J. Sanders showed that he can pick up positive yardage on punt returns when he gets a crease from his blockers, while Amir Carlisle and the kickoff return squad has been a disappointment.

SUMMARY

This game shapes up as a high scoring affair between two potent offenses. The Irish defense is better than its Georgia Tech counterpart, but that is balanced by the fact that Tech’s offense is more finely tuned at this stage while Notre Dame is breaking in Kizer at quarterback. The winning team will convert a higher percentage of its drives into points, and a greater number of these scores will be touchdowns rather than field goals.

Notre Dame should be emotionally charged to play hard and win for its fallen leader Zaire, and a strong start is essential to victory. If Kizer is asked to lead his team back from a two score deficit and Kelly abandons the running game, the chances of a mistake are heightened.

Here are a few questions that will provide insight into the outcome:

Will Kizer make good decisions with the ball or commit costly mistakes?

Can the Irish secondary bounce back after a weak performance against Virginia?

Which offensive line can impose its will on the opponent?

Will Notre Dame’s receivers have success against Tech’s veteran defensive backs?

Which team will be able to sustain long scoring drives?

Who will win the chess match between Johnson and VanGorder?

After losing four key players (Jones, Folston, Zaire, Smythe), can the Irish get through this game intact?

PREDICTION

Last week, Virginia exposed a few of Notre Dame’s familiar weaknesses that were thought to be put to bed after the Texas game. Red zone inefficiency on offense, unsuccessful short yardage conversions on third down and catastrophic lapses in the secondary surfaced at very inopportune times. The Irish have a lot to clean up this week on both sides of the ball, although the home field and friendly environment will help. Still, Notre Dame’s approach puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback to execute plays and display timing and accuracy in the passing game. Although Kizer will likely play well, the hosts will suffer a few breakdowns on both sides of the ball that will prove to be the difference in the outcome.

GEORGIA TECH 41 NOTRE DAME 27

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19 thoughts on “Depleted Irish Face High Scoring Jackets

  1. Vannie I have no data to support my disagreement with you, but I will disagree all the same. Not because I think your conclusions are unfounded, but because IMHO the number of important variables at play in this particular situation makes predicting the outcome challenging to the point of silliness. REALLY hard to predict this one.
    Tech first: They have hung 60+ on their opponents thus far this season. As ridiculous as that is, those teams were hardly powerhouses, and may have never seen the TO before. ND has seen it a lot, and has better athletes on defense than Tech’s prior opponents. Is that gonna matter? We will soon find out.
    ND: Who the hell knows? Kizer could have a Hanratty-like day. Or he could stink the place up and throw 5 picks. The D could be stout or porous-we have seen both already this year. The O-Line could run the GT front off the ball every single down. Or not.
    So MY pick is based solely on confusion and optimism. ND gets out to an early start like last week, with Kizer spreading the ball around beautifully. ND actually stymies the TO defensively at first, but Tech hangs around and makes enough adjustments to fight back and actually takes the lead. ND wins in a thriller thanks to the toe of Justin Yooooooooon. 45-42 ND. Zero % data, 100% hope. When am I gonna learn? GO IRISH BEAT THE JACKETS!!!

  2. 41-27? Do you know the odds on this game are only Georgia Tech -2 1/2. Of course your prediction could happen but the chances of ND losing by 14 points is around 10%. Assuming Notre Dame does not turn the ball over 3 + times they should keep the game close.

  3. My optimism lies in the fact that Georgia Tech hasn’t played any competition, so all of their gaudy statistics are extremely inflated, as Bonecrusher mentioned. That said, it is also easy to to say that Notre Dame’s competition thus far is not much of a measuring stick either, (Texas won their second game but only got 11 first downs against Rice). I hope that our defense’s clear confusion against Virginia means they were looking ahead to the problems and game plan that they are working on for GT. It’s safe to say that GT will definitely score, you look back a few years and I think the last time they scored single digits was October of 2011. So the question is can Kizer, and the game plan the coaching staff comes up for him, (which is as much of an unknown for GT as it is to all of his fans) be enough? If our defense gives up 40 we lose, maybe even 30. If we can keep it in the 20s, we’ve got a real shot. Yeah we had some HUGE personnel losses but we still have got Jaylon Smith, Sheldon Day, CJ Procise, Will Fuller, and an offensive line that is ready to blow some people up. Go Irish!

  4. Bone really called it. This game could display anything at all! Got to admit that makes it rather exciting in a way and a must see but not in the way I would’ve liked it to be: 2 awesome QBs and offenses going head to head; 2 teams fully loaded and ready to go. Now here we are higher ranked and yet an underdog at home. Don’t feel right.

    Like the other few who’ve posted so far I don’t have any reason to say Vannie’s score is wrong. But also I see this as game where we could just as easily end up a 2 touchdownish victor with So many unknowns. So I’m gonna ride that sentiment and say ND 40 GT 31.

  5. Kelly needs top employ the same strategy to this game as he did against LSU in the bowl game,e.g,have offensive possession for 43 of the 60 minutes with a domineering running game.The problem is this against Kelly’s Hurry Up & Score nature.He only did this against LSU because his back was against the wall because of 4 previous losses.Hopefully the Lady on the Dome will get in contact with the Holy Spirit & enlightenment will happen.

  6. Have to agree with you. In six years we have yet to really handle this offense and now we have the master. The only hope is a special ND moment. Feel for Kizer because we will need to score TDS on most possessions or this will be a rout.

  7. I believe the keys to this game are the offense sustaining drives on third down. Keeping Tech from controlling the ball. If they get ahead but more than a score Kelly will do what he always does. he will abandon the run game and go the air and he will do it with a new QB. If we can keep them off the field for reasonable lengths of time then we can win the game.
    We also need a lot more from special teams. We need to flip field position and get good starting field position. Hopefully we will see something new —it seems like this is a forgotten facet of the game for ND and Kelly.
    Finally and most obviously is to correct a signature kelly trait which is to stall in the red zone.
    I think ND with all their injuries can win this game and should win the game if they improve on the above stated fundamentals

  8. Irish 42, G Tech 21

    Irish O. will shock G Tech/ D. will play out of their minds for 3 quarters – give up a couple td’s in
    4th qtr. garbage time.

  9. Well they have had an eye on facing this team and this scheme since the offseason so I truly expect an inspired smart defensive plan.The way I’ve always understood facing the option was to attack it and hit all of the key people involved in the run option. The QB must get popped all day. Its the only time you can basically hit the QB no matter what on every chance you get. This could prove beneficial when he is trying to throw late in the game and he has taken a beating. Kizer needs to make big conversions on 3rd down and Kelly needs to push the envelope with 4th and short and goal line calls. Need alot of points. Irish 40-37

  10. Agree with your analysis of this game. I pray for an Irish miracle but my realistic view is that we are going to get drilled. We can’t win a shoot out and Kizer, through no fault of his own, is not ready for prime time.

  11. Keep in mind Vegas spreads are determined by who is betting on whom, not what actually, intelligent football analyst might think. I can easily see GT winning by 14 before I see the Irish win by 14. I think, however, it will be closer but still a GT victory. I have not seen any evidence the ND defense can hold GT to less than 35 points and I don’t see Kizer and the O doing that.

  12. I’ll be extremely disappointed if GT win by 14. I agree this is a tough game and we have had a lot of injuries, but it had better be closer than that.

  13. I have to agree with the analysis, but just hope Vannie is wrong. I think this is a game which will define the season and maybe VanGorder’s fate. If the defense with loads of returning talent can’t stop GT then I put it on coaching. I seem to remember a year or two ago Western Kentucky or someone like them crushing Navy. Western Kentucky?!?

    If the triple option is so wonderful every team would run it. No excuses. Crush GT!!