by Scott Engler
(Notre Dame Football News) – The short story, as you’l
l see below, is that from a pure “recruited talent”* objective perspective ND has the raw material to be in the thick of the BCS race this year. Everyone has questions at this point, but ND’s are comparatively few and where there are questions, the possible answers aren’t near as frightening as they used to be.
What does this mean for 2010? Probably not as much as Irish fans would like.
With a new staff and a new quarterback 2+2 rarely adds up to 5; in such a situation usually the whole is less than the sum of the parts. As has been noted, none of Saban, Meyer, Carroll, Tressell or Stoops had less than 3-losses in their first years. Also there’s the fact that Notre Dame recruiting has traditionally been over-rated, though it seems that issue may have abated.
This all sounds crazy after the last three years of anywhere from putrid to mediocre, but Notre Dame is in a far stronger position today than it has been in some time.
There are five numbers that stand out to me when looking at the spring depth chart.
3: Number of underclassmen that will likely start in 2010.
2: Number of likely starters ranked less than four stars by Rivals.
1: Number of underclassmen likely to start because there are no decent upperclassmen in that slot.
0: Number starting out of position because of need.
0: Number of low-rated underclassmen starting
The three underclassmen are Zach Martin, Theo Riddick and Manti Te’o. Only Te’o is playing out of need and I think we can live with a 5-star stud everyone wanted playing out of need. There’s a reason Kelly cited depth as the number one strength of this team.
What those numbers tell you is that this program was left in a very good state by Charlie Weis, he stabilized a very, very shaky situation. As much as many are bemoaning the most recent recruiting classes (me as well, btw) each one of those classes is better than both years in 2005 and 2004 (combined.) From a program perspective, ND might as well have been sanctioned at the end of the Willingham regime.
Notre Dame is in an enviable position from a talent perspective.
Of the 22 projected starters for 2010 on rivals, 4 were 5-star recruits on Rivals, 16 were 4-star recruits and 2 were 3-star recruits. Both 3-stars are seniors or 5th year seniors. Of the 4-stars, many were borderline 5-stars (6.0 4-stars.) If you’d like to start dreaming, compare that to Alabama from last year. It’s better. While hardly the whole story, statistically, 4 and 5-star recruits have proven to have a higher probability of being on a championship team and becoming top draft picks.
suave_andrew looked at the four year averages for the top schools and noted a downward trajectory for ND, but he buried the lead. The lead is that Notre Dame has more “recruited talent” this year than 5 of the last ten teams who played in the National Championship game and more “recruited talent” than 2 of the last 5 winners of the national championship. BTW, to see how far both Bama and the Irish have come, look at the lower left of the graph.
But that’s only a part of the puzzle or USC would have rolled the country last year. From a pure talent perspective, kids are still growing and a senior is worth far more than a freshmen all things considered. Boston College and Stanford had very good relative seasons recently when they ended up with senior laden teams. In a perfect world, you want talented kids, but ones who have physically and mentally matured to the greatest extent possible. Since most males don’t hit their athletic peak until 25, older is better.
Omahadomer has been grinding out the math using aggregate recruiting numbers from Phil Steele and then weighting them to account for the seniority.
Here are his top 5 for 2010:
1. USC 287
2. Florida 264
3. ND 256
4. Texas 242
5. Ohio State 239
That’s spittin distance from Florida. Again, I’m not arguing that talent translates into championships without good coaching, but the talent is there. No one should go overboard with this kind of data, as it’s fraught with subjectivity, but in aggregate the story is probably this: Notre Dame will not be outclassed from a recruited talent perspective by any team on the schedule outside of USC. How that translates into performance is anyone’s guess.
As to the coaching, Bill Connelly at Football Outsider ranked ND as the 8th worst (or best) underachiever over the past three years.
Here is the three-year underachiever list.
1. Washington State (-39.3/season)
2. San Diego State (-28.2)
3. Texas A&M (-27.0)
4. Iowa State (-23.8)
5. Kansas State (-23.6)
6. Washington (-22.1)
7. Syracuse (-21.8)
8. Notre Dame (-21.7)
9. Colorado (-20.9)
10. Michigan (-20.3)
He also ranked Cincinnati as the number 2 best overachiever over the same time period.
Here is the three-year overachiever list, with numbers.
1. TCU (+44.0/season)
2. Cincinnati (+43.5)
3. Boise State (+39.1)
4. Florida (+35.1)
5. Navy (+32.7)
Again, don’t go heading off to Vegas, with new coaching you never know what you’ll get and as Lou wrote, becoming a winner is a process.
Still, over the long haul talent + coaching equals success and now that Weis has restocked the talent, hopefully the Irish have found a coach who can actually get the most out of it.
* Level of talent when recruited.
Rich says:
Weis and staff were hard working recruiters and did a great job of upgrading the talent from the dreadful Willingham years. Brian Kelly will recruit just as hard but the players will be physically tougher and more developed under Kelly than under Weis.
nddragon says:
Great work omahadomer. Can’t wait to see what Coach K can do with the elite talent we got at nd. By the way thought me and the family were the only irish fans in husker country. Glad to see we ain’t alone. Go IRISH!!!
kj says:
GREAT article! agree with everything said.
Murph says:
Nice analysis, but for the future it seems better to use the rivals rating (i.e., 5.5-6.1) than the stars. That gives a granularity of 7 points through the 3 -5 stars. For example, if one team had mostly 5.8 rating four stars, and another team had mostly 6.0 rating four stars (or 5.5 vs 5.7 rating 3 stars), it seems that some precision is lost by only using the stars for comparison.
pmoose says:
If the recruiting rankings weren’t subjective, I’d agree with you that a broader scale would help in the analysis. However, because of the subjectivity of the rankings to begin with, I think using the stars ratings works just fine. It seems that using the rivals ratings would be a lot more work and wouldn’t add much, if anything, to the final results and analysis.
IrishJMike says:
Sounds very good. At the end of the day, it’s hard to argue with Kelly’s record over the years and especially over the past two. He has demonstrated real superiority on game day. But let’s wait and see.
terry says:
Being a COF – Certified Old Fart – I must confess that I really don’t have the foggiest idea what he (our esteemed author) is talking about. In some universes what he says makes sense, but not in mine, and needless to say but I will anyway I prefer mine.
Little known facts (Up until now) – July 4, 1776 was a Tuesday, Frank Sinatra was born on a Sunday, WWI ended on a Monday. Please check me.
Whatever
(Does anyone out there remember “Ara Stop The Snow!”? )
I know we should be realistic about the upcoming season and I have certainly done my best in that regard – for about 3 seconds. It didn’t take.
As close to realistic as I can get is 8-4. A lucky break or two makes it 9-3, “please pass the Kool-Aid dear” says 10-2.
There will come a point at which each of us will realize that the Irish are BACK.
And this year the streak ends – it ends in Los Angeles. It ends with all those ex-usc stars, all those stars, wannabes and whatnot standing on the usc sideline watching them get beat.
I remember when I was in the service in November of 1966 listening to the usc game on a shortwave radio in the mideast. 51-0.
Do the Irish have the talent? Yes they do. Charlie Weis was NOT a good college football coach (oh really?) but he is a good man and he was one heck of a recruiter. The players Kelly will win with this year were about 95% recruited by Charlie Weis.
I bid a fond farewell to all those more serious than I – I know you are legion.
But now the dog wants to go for a walk (sans leash) and I must pee. (I live out in the sticks – lucky me)
One more thing – Grace Kelly will be at all the home games – how can they lose?
jehnd71 says:
I remember “Ara stop the snow”. I think it was a Navy game and the snow did stop.
jason says:
ahhh, Grace Kelly! oh wait we talking about the same Grace? None the less-Well said! I can’t wait for the sunlight to reflect off of touchdown Jesus onto the eyes of the Irish faithful, then with the sudden blinding light comes V-I-C-T-O-R-Y…
Jason
PS-all those number which i do understand in the article—-they mean nothing! Its heart that wins championships. 24′ 29′ 30′ 43′ 46′ 47′ 49′ 66′ 73′ 77′ 88′ and if you add all that up it equals 562 and if you add 5+6=11×2=22 divided by 2 (because we’re out of the 1990’s into the 20″s) = 11…that means they win it all in 2011 or you can add 2+0+1+1=4….22 taken from it total sum of the difference and its squared root of the diameter of earth and add 79% and 21% (the air we breath) and mix it with Kool aid and a splash of sugar…you again have VICTORY…understand…enough said.
terry says:
Put it this way – last year Kelly took a team of 2 and 3 star players and coached them to a 12-0 record and a final national ranking of 5. At Notre Dame he is coaching a team of AT LEAST 3 star players who are tired of getting whipped and Kelly is pounding some serious attitude into them.
Q: How many games did they lose last year in the 4th quarter, in how many games were they hopelessly whipped by the 4th quarter?
A: I lost count, but ONE is too many.
Joe Montana says:
I dont you can compare anything from last year. We had Tate and Clauson this year we dont. Cinic was a better team last year than ND, with no 4 star players. Clown Kelly can coach and he can win, but its not gonna happen this year. Still fun to watch the game but look for 7 wins this year.
digiboxer says:
This piece is premised on “talent” being measure by high school ratings…we already know these are very unreliable.
And even if accurate, they ignore development in college. ND has developed some positions brilliantly and others horribly.
irishru2 says:
I’m pretty sure the author already qualified the heck out of that. The article is about recruited talent. High school recruiting data is not useless. It is not the complete picture, but there is no better way to isolate pure talent from coaching — coaching is a factor in everything that happens after they sign. Those high school ratings are not perfect, but they’re not useless.
Jimbo says:
You can take all the star numbers you want, botton line to me is there is no way ND has BCS talent especially on defense. Many of those star ratings are complete nonsense. It’s about team chemistry, talent, breaks, coaching and many other intangibles.
The Piper says:
Article is rehashing what all of us have been talking about for last 3yrs:
1) Willingham destroyed the place.
2) Weis proved he could recruit, but he couldn’t develop players.
3) Kelly has a history (GVSU, CMU, Cincy) of developing players and molding winners.
More importatntly, what I’m most pleased about is seeing the development of Steve Filer to 1st string. Perennial underacheiver who never stepped up, and this tells me Kelly is DEVELOPING talent. In addition, the last regime seemed all too comfortable with the play of Brian Smith. I like him but he didn’t improve a bit over 3yrs.
Truth is our success all comes down to:
A) Crist staying healthy
B) The play of Ian Williams (and less so KLM and E Johnson)
C) The development of the other ILN (Carlo Calabrese?).
Everything else looks set.
Last point, while saban, meyer, stoops, brown all lost 3+ their first season, I’d point out that Kelly went 10-3 in yr 1 at Cincy.
If A, B, and C (above) all work out, we’re going to be a helluva team to deal with.
I expect this team to miles better on Nov 27 than they are on Sept 3.
Erik '04 says:
I like Kelly’s quote about Filer being concerned about his new skateboard when Kelly first got there, and that “he’s not worrying about his skateboard anymore.” This tells me the team is focused on football, and that’s how I like it.
Steve says:
Good analysis but with all that said and done, the game is played on the field and I like what I am hearing so far.
BruceB says:
I don’t think talent has been the main issue with ND recently. This is evidenced by the fact that the 2009 team was in a position to win every game late in the 4th quarter. Where they lost out was in endurance, confidence, the will to win and coaching, especially on defense. Since Kelly addressed the first three issues right from the start, he plainly recognizes the problems. The fourth will only manifest itself by results on the field but I think we’re going to see the most dramatic improvement since 1964. Just don’t underestimate Utah.
David says:
While I totally understand folks saying that these are just HS recruiting rankings and they don’t mean much as the game is played on the field you have to understand that it’s simply a way to measure overall talent. Yes, guys over/under perform all the time. The recruiting services make mistakes on how they measure guys every year but if you look at the top teams in the nation every year they have more of those highly rated guys than the lower ones. What does that mean for ND? Not much other than knowing that we are on par with the other top programs in the country. That simply wasn’t the case a few years back. BK is in a good position as far as having quality players to work with, now he just has to turn those guys into winners. He’s proven he can do that with his past positions but ND is a different animal. But from all indications so far he looks the part. I’m cautiously optimistic about next year but feel really good about the future of the program with Kelly leading. I just don’t see him being unsuccessful for very long. He’s just too good of a coach.
BillN says:
It was “Ara Stop this shit” and it was the Purdue game my freshman year at ND, ’74. We were losing to heavy underdog Purdue and, not being a student before, did not realize this chant was highly unusual or customary, Ara was perturbed about it and actually signalled for the students to stop.
terry says:
With all due respect, young man – you have no idea what you are talking about.
(when was the last time anyone called you “young man”?)
It was in November of either 1968 or 1969. Jehnd71 says it was – to the best of his recollection – The Navy game. If that is the case, given that Navy plays @ ND in odd-numbered years, it would be 1969.
It was just FUNNY. Funny is good – I like funny.
Realistic – 8-4
Optimistic – 9-3
Pass the Kool-Aid – 10-2
MOST important – they will once again be the FIGHTING Irish. When they charge out on the field they will EXPECT to win . Not hope to win – they will EXPECT to win.
November 27, 2010 – the streak will end, and the Irish will be OFFICIALLY back.
BillN says:
Actually, Terry, not recently have I been called young man, lol
Indeed, in 1966 (or was it 1066, seems like ancient history to me, lol), back when kids were not vulgar, they may have yelled, “Ara, stop the snow,” but by the time I had gotten to ND, apparently things had changed, because I distinctly remember the chant, “Ara, stop this shit,” when Purdue went something like 2-3 touchdowns ahead. I also remember that, since we were so much favored, nobody was really concerned about it, thinking it was just a matter of time before we’d display our horsepower, but it wasn’t to be. And poor Ara, a very serious, take it to heart kind of guy, just sat there with head down, worried, and paced the sidelines, during this debacle.
terry says:
I was not in the student section that day but I was right next to it. it was either 1968 or 1969 – check the schedule for a November game in either one of those years, but I distinctly remember that. it was funny – “Ara stop the snow!” It DID happen,LONG before you got there, and I was, thankfully, gone before things got vulgar.
It was indeed my pleasure to call you a young man!
BillN says:
Thank you sir, and it has been my pleasure to make your acquaintance. I’m sure your version of Ara and his power over nature went down exactly as you said it did.
The main thing, and I think you will agree, is that there is much to be optimitic about, we are finally headed in the right direction, imo. Finally coming in from the wilderness. It may take a few years, but I have little doubt Kelly will be successful.
BTW, Weis was in my dorm, in my class, and in my face much of the time, lol.
Teo says:
It’s a nice theory. Notre Dame has a lot of players who were highly recruited coming out of high school. They’re loaded with kids who were very appealing when they were 15 and 16 years old.
The trouble is, reality sets in. The three-star kid that Cinci landed proved to be a much better player than the five-star that Notre Dame landed.
The whole thing reminds me of economics. If we do x, then y is likely to happen. But it’s not guaranteed because of a lot of reasons. It’s nice to know that the team is filled with four and five star athletes. We should be able to win games. But if there are other coaches out there who make the three-star players four- and five-star college players and our four- and five-star players play as three-star college players, we’ve going to have a hard time winning games.
ed green says:
I agree with much of what has been said. I believe that BK has proven his ability to develop players. This is vital. I don’t believe that CW had this ability. He is not a college football coach. He is an offensive X and O man, who can design offensive game plans and successful schemes. He will never be a coach who can manage both sides of the ball. His success at New England was predetermined by the head coach and all pro quaterback.
It will be nice to have a coach on the sidelines who doesn’t have his nose running down into his mouth and onto his lips!
DomerMike says:
What does this mean to me? It means we be thankful for ND’s blessings as an institution, and we need to win. Now.
Look, in the world of non-ND college football, if you lose, your recruiting loses too. No one wants to play for a losing team. But because of what ND is, was and represents, we somehow continue to bring in the recruits. It really is an amazing feat of these coaches to bring in top-notch talent to South Bend, Indiana (and from going to ND for 4 years, I know firsthand that the Bend is not the ideal place to live).
These facts are an embarrassment in my opinion. I DO think high school ratings are reliable. The more these kids go to camps together, get compared side by side, etc, etc, the more accurate these ratings get every year. These websites are big business and they know what they’re talking about.
In the end, we don’t develop talent and we don’t get the most of our kids on Saturdays. It’s beyond frustrating to see guys starting in the NFL that consistently underachieved at ND (Ryan Grant? Ndukwe? I could go on…).
Be thankful for our tradition, our TV contract, our independence, our Catholic values… because the more “historic” our history gets, the tougher it’s going to be to sell ND to kids who weren’t even born the last time we won a championship.
Phil from Morrissey says:
Manti Teo playing out of necessity . You lose all credibility right there . Teo is a talent and wouyld start anywhere in the country . Yes , Charlie did a great job recruiting and the character of the kid he recruited ( Kelly calls them RKG’s) will show this year . They fought hard as pups and they showed some bite . If a dog is goin’ to bite it bites young . This defense will be pretty good . Filer is an indication that speed and talent win out in this scheme. Turn ’em lose and let ’em run reckless the way the old Johnny Ray defenses played .
Now , I was at the game where Ara stopped the snow . It is God’s truth and I swear the sun actually came out also . I think it was 1966 ( maybe ’67 ) but I thought it was North Carolina . If I remember right Eddy ran a kickoff back and Conjar had a field day . Ray’s defense blanked yet another opponent .That’s back when Notre Dame was Notre Dame and still a Catholic school . Before the left became entrenched on the faculty and the administration .
admin says:
You’re missing the point, Phil. We have no one else at the position who’s a capable junior/senior. Manti might start anyway, but the point is right now we need him to start. Right now you have a converted fullback behind him.
Phil from Morrissey says:
I’m not missing the point . Teo is a once in a decade player . Fullback schmullback . How would you like to see Darrius in the middle ? Let’s see a guard chase him around all afternoon .
Charle was a smart man . He recruited good kids . I think they would have won big this year and into the future — but that’s why people gamble — no one knows for sure . I just think hew did it the right way and I’d rather go with Charlie than the two who proceeded him . We’ll see if Kelly gives Charlie his due if he does what I think he will do this year .
Go Irish !
terry says:
I thought it was either ’68 or ’69 – in 1966 I was overseas. Of course it could have happened twice, but I DO remember it and it WAS funny.
Remember “Go Schoen Go!”?
Phil from Morrissey says:
Yes — Tom Schoen was one of the greatest athletes I ever had the pleasure of watching . Did you ever see him play hoops ? — he was awesome . The SOS secondary was a thing of beauty — smart tough and absolutely unyielding .
Maybe it happened again but I don’t remember Deuschne ever running wild — solid but no Conjar — and I’m pretty sure Eddy ran one back and he was gone in ’68 . I Graduated in ’69 so I missed that season but I’m sure it could have happened .
Those were the glory days before political correctness took over .
Here come the Irish !!!
terry says:
Pass the kool aid folks.
Ara Parseghian arrived @ND in 1964. The previous year under Hugh Devore the Irish had gone 1-9.
In 1964 freshmen couldn’t play varsity sports so Ara took a team composed entirely of players recruited prior to his arrival ……
(Prior to coming to ND he had coached at Northwestern and had beaten ND EVERY time they played)
It’s preseason. Hopes are high – why NOT be unrealistic?
Matt Ryan says:
Wow, this post is filling me with optimism. 19 days to go. I swore that I wouldn’t get caught up with optimism based on coaching change this time, but this feels way more like the Holtz hire (successful college coach taking over after a good recruiter who underachieved on the field) than the last three debacles.
I agreed at the end of last year the Weis needed to go, but we shouldn’t forget that he was always loyal to ND, always tried his best, always showed class off the field and always recruited as hard as anyone. His weaknesses were his failure to teach, his inability to be CEO of such a large venture, and his chronic foot in mouth disease. And after reading the preseason coverage this year, I’ll add failure to properly condition the players properly. Though I was convinced in 2005 that Weis was a conditioning upgrade over Willingham, too.
Vandal Dome Camera says:
Nice work! great website
terry says:
I think they are going to win I think they’re going to win big. If they don’t win all their games it will NOT be because they were outfought, or because they folded in the 4th quarter.
I’ve made the point on a few occasions that last year Cincy was 12-0 regular season, and others have pointed out – correctly – that that was with players Kelly had been coaching for 3 years. You judge a coach by what he does with the talent he’s got. Kelly coached Cincy to a national #5 ranking last year – imagine what he can do with the talent he has to work with now both THIS season and the seasons after that. When ND hired him he hit the ground running – he’s said all the right things, made all the right moves. And the players have bought into it. And old farts like me have bought into it.
To sum up in as friendly a fashion as I can – It’s MY kool-aid, I paid for it and I’ll drink as much of it as I damn well please.
afn&tt
NDPat 67 says:
Correction: in 1963 (Hugh Devore as interim coach went 2and 7. One game was cancelled because of the assassination of President Kennedy on 11/22/63. Ara came in and made the most of a recruiting class brought in by Devore which included Nick Eddy, Jim Lynch, Alan Page, George Goeddeke, Dick Swatland, Larry Conjar, Kevin Hardy, John Horney, Tom Seiler, Tim Gorman, et al ; that group went 9 wins in a row in 1964 losing only to USC by a score of 20-17 after leading 17-0 at halftime. Two years later, in 1966, it was Notre Dame 51 and USC 0. That was one week after the legendary 10-10 tie with Michigan State. Go Ara, Go Irish. NDPat67
NDPat 67 says:
Addition: I forget to mention 4 other players who were recruited by Devore as part of the same class as those mentioned above, and all 4 were from Fenwick High School in Illinois: Jim DiLullo, Tim Wingierski, Dan Gibbs, and Joe Marsico!!!!!!
JoeH says:
GOOOOOOO IRISHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!
I can’t be more excited about the optimism I have for this season. I’m grateful to Charlie for proving that ND can recruit top talent at the skilled positions without watering down our academic standards. And for his unyielding and high regard for the University and what it stands for.
But I am truely optimistic that Coach Kelly is the right man at the right time for the job of leading us to double digit wins per season, and leading us back to Relevance, while improving on the recuriting successes we saw with Coach Weiss.
I’m looking forward to Noter Dame’s return to Yankee Stadium and New York City the weekend before Thanksgiving for the game against Army, hopefully going into that game with but a single loss, and setting up a grand stage for USC on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. While I sit there, enjoying the steady return of Notre Dame football to prominence, I will surely think of one other game in New York many a decade ago>
Grantland Rice, a sportswriter for the former New York Herald Tribune, helped the early Rockne backfield to achieve football immortality. After Notre Dame’s 13–7 upset victory over a strong Army team, on October 18, 1924, Rice penned a famous passage of sports journalism:
“Outlined against a blue-gray October sky, the Four Horsemen rode again. In dramatic lore their names are Death, Destruction, Pestilence, and Famine. But those are aliases. Their real names are: Stuhldreher, Crowley, Miller and Layden. They formed the crest of the South Bend cyclone before which another fighting Army team was swept over the precipice at the Polo Grounds this afternoon as 55,000 spectators peered down upon the bewildering panorama spread out upon the green plain below.”
ND went on to an undefeated year, 10-0, and National Championship that season, culminated with a Rose Bowl victory over Stanford.
GOOOOOOO IRISHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
terry says:
Let’s get to the point, folks.
Does Notre Dame Football have championship talent?
Yes
physician assistant says:
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