Notre Dame concludes its regular season on Saturday night against archrival USC in the Coliseum. The 6-5 Irish are seeking their third straight victory, but more importantly will try to halt the Trojans’ eight-game winning streak in this series. Both teams are led by first year head coaches and are unranked. USC is not eligible for a post season game due to NCAA probation, while Notre Dame needs a win to qualify for a more desirable bowl venue. Despite the ups and downs that have defined the 2010 season for both teams, each school is highly motivated to win this week.

Injuries will cause several key players on both sides to miss the game. Quarterback Matt Barkley is highly doubtful for the Trojans, and Senior Mitch Mustain is next in line. Tailback Marc Tyler is also hurt, but USC has capable alternates in C.J. Gable and Allen Bradford. Starting right tackle Tyron Smith is doubtful, and senior Butch Lewis will move over from a guard spot to take his place. The Irish have lost quarterback Dayne Crist, tailback Armando Allen and tight end Kyle Rudolph, but Tommy Rees, Cierre Wood and Tyler Eifert have played quite well since being forced into action.

Defensively, Notre Dame’s lineup is intact except for nose tackle Ian Williams (knee), while middle linebacker Chris Galippo may be unavailable for USC due to a concussion. It should be noted that the Irish have had a few weeks to adjust to the absence of their injured stars, while the Trojans suffered the aforementioned losses just last week at Oregon State. The most significant impact for the hosts will be the switch from Barkley to Mustain, who did not look sharp in relief against the Beavers.

Both teams have suffered difficult losses that have caused their proud fans to grumble. Lane Kiffin’s Trojans lost twice on last second field goals and could easily be 9-2 this year. Brian Kelly’s Fighting Irish inexplicably dropped consecutive games to Navy and Tulsa, and would also be 9-2 had they won those contests as expected and split with the Michigan schools. These frustrations on both sides add rather than detract from the importance of this week’s matchup to the respective programs, even though there is marginal national interest and no discernable impact on the polls.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. USC’S DEFENSE

The Irish hope to have Theo Riddick back at the slot receiver and a healthy T.J. Jones and Michael Floyd on the outside. All have battled injuries this season but should be close to full speed by kickoff. Floyd has drawn the attention of opposing defenses of late, but Rees has countered by finding Eifert, who has become a solid weapon in the vertical passing game. The full complement of starting receivers should enable Kelly to open the playbook. At this point in the season and after eight consecutive losses to the Trojans, there is no reason to hold back.

USC’s defense has been uncharacteristically porous this season even when one considers its relative youth and inexperience. Opponents have scored an average of 28 points and generated 413 yards per game, which places the Trojans in the lower tier of the national rankings. One key area to watch is Notre Dame’s ability to run the ball. If the Irish can gain 140 yards rushing in this game, which is the average allowed by USC this season, it will be a very positive indicator for the visitors.

Notre Dame’s offensive line will not enjoy a size advantage over the Trojan 4-3 front as they did against Army and Utah. Tackle Jurrel Casey is a disruptive force in the middle with a team high ten tackles for loss and a 4.5 sacks. He is joined by fellow 300 pound juniors DaJohn Harris and Armond Armstead. The pass rushing ends are sophomores Wes Horton and Nick Perry, who have combined for seven sacks.

If Galippo is sidelined, Devon Kennard will regain his starting spot at middle linebacker. The converted defensive end started several games this year before giving way to Galippo a few weeks ago, and is USC’s second leading tackler. Kennard is flanked by seniors Michael Morgan and Malcolm Smith. The secondary is young with the exception of senior cornerback Shareece Wright, who will likely be asked to shadow Floyd. Safety T.J. McDonald is an emerging star, and 5’8” freshman Nickell Robey won the starting cornerback job opposite Wright by beating out several upperclassmen.

USC’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

The Trojans have a balanced attack that has produced an average of 192 rush yards, 250 pass yards and 33 points per game against the nation’s seventh toughest schedule. Things fell apart for USC last week in Corvallis, and it remains to be seen what Mustain can do to resurrect the attack after a full week of practice. A relatively young offensive line is anchored by senior center Kris O’Dowd. While Lewis moves to right tackle for the injured Smith, junior Michael Reardon will backfill at the left guard spot.

Despite the probable loss of Tyler, USC is well stocked at the skill positions. Bradford has rushed for 600 yards this season in a backup role, and talented freshman Dillon Baxter has been getting more touches in recent weeks despite various injury and disciplinary problems. The strongest position on the team is at wide receiver, where senior Ronald Johnson and freshman sensation Robert Woods may be the fastest tandem in the country. Each has caught 53 passes and the pair has combined for 14 touchdowns. Veteran David Ausberry is a productive third receiver, while tight end Rhett Ellison has been lightly used this season.

Fullback Stanley Havili is the unsung hero in this offense. The senior’s rushing stats are not impressive, but he is a superb blocker and short yardage runner. Most importantly, Havili is the team’s third leading receiver and is often the target when the Trojans need to convert on third down. The Irish must account for Havili since Mustain may be less inclined than the gunslinger Barkley to attempt high risk throws downfield.

USC will rely on the running game to create space and opportunities through the air. The battle will be fierce up front, where Notre Dame must limit Trojan first down runs to three yards or fewer. Another critical matchup is Irish cornerbacks Darrin Walls, Gary Gray and Robert Blanton against Woods, Johnson and Ausberry. The Irish secondary has played extremely well of late but has not seen USC’s level of talent this season.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Trojans are very dangerous in the return game and generally do a good job in coverage. Kiffin has assigned his best athletes, Woods and Johnson, the duty to return kickoffs and punts, respectively. Each has scored a touchdown this season. Jacob Harfman is a capable punter, while place kicker Joe Houston has hit only seven of 13 field goal attempts and none beyond 34 yards.

David Ruffer continues to demonstrate accuracy and a strong leg for Notre Dame, and he could be the difference in the game if most other elements are equal. The Irish cover teams will have to stay in their lanes and respect the speed of the USC returners, as field position will be important to these depleted offenses.

SUMMARY

Both teams need to run the ball in order to relieve the pressure on the respective backup quarterbacks. An offensive explosion by either team is unlikely, so turnovers, penalties, and the ability to convert scoring opportunities into points will be critical. Notre Dame has momentum and should also have a motivational edge, but USC is the most talented team the Irish have faced since Stanford.

Let’s consider a few key questions that will have a bearing on the outcome:

Will the improved Irish running game reach the 140-yard mark against the Trojans?

Can Notre Dame’s cornerbacks cover Woods, Johnson and Ausberry?

Will Floyd be a difference-maker for the Irish in his first game against the Trojans?

Can Notre Dame adjust to USC’s size and speed after playing Army and Utah?

Which quarterback will be efficient with his passes and avoid turnovers?

Will special teams tilt the balance to one side in what should be a close game?

Which coach will do the best job of preparing his team and managing the game?

PREDICTION

Both teams have talent and sufficient motivation in this rivalry contest. The outcome will hinge on the quarterbacks and along the line of scrimmage. Notre Dame will hope it can battle the Trojans to a standstill in the trenches and that Rees will make sound decisions in the pocket, leaving the door open for Ruffer to provide the winning points. Unfortunately, USC’s lines are battle tested against better competition than the Irish have played recently, and the fifth year senior Mustain is less likely to make mistakes than the freshman Rees. This game will be hard fought and close until the end, but the Trojans should win unless they fall under the weight of self-inflicted wounds.

USC 24  NOTRE DAME 20