Two tradition-rich programs with struggling defenses collide in Los Angeles on Saturday in the regular season finale as Notre Dame takes on the USC Trojans. Both teams are 7-4 and seeking to end losing streaks fueled by poor tackling, pass coverage breakdowns and inconsistent offensive line play. The winner in this long-standing rivalry game will gain a measure of satisfaction in what has been a disappointing November, during which both proud combatants have been unceremonious dismissed from the company of ranked teams and major bowl contenders. The game will be nationally televised on the Fox Network beginning at 3:30 PM Eastern time, or 12:30 PM at the Coliseum.

The Trojans are celebrating the 50th anniversary of their referee-enabled 20-17 win over the top ranked 1964 Notre Dame squad coached by Ara Parseghian. This week also marks 40 years since USC’s 55-24 defeat of the Irish when the Trojans scored 55 points in 17 minutes after trailing by 24-0, and ultimately propelled Parseghian into retirement. Decades later, Notre Dame is still being victimized by ludicrous officials’ calls and surrendering points with unprecedented ease. The Irish are 2-4 in their last six games and opponents have scored an average of 40 during that stretch.

The good news is that Notre Dame has won three of its past four games in this series, and has taken advantage of USC’s scholarship reductions resulting from the program’s most recent array of NCAA violations that occurred during the Pete Carroll era. Steve Sarkisian inherited the current chaos after Carroll’s hasty departure and the failed efforts of Lane Kiffin and Ed Orgeron to sustain success. Sarkisian’s first year has been marked by off-field incidents involving cornerback Josh Shaw and running back Anthony Brown, fourth quarter collapses against Arizona State and Utah, and physical beat downs at the hands of Boston College and UCLA. A win this week would serve to cool the embers that are beginning to smolder beneath his seat.

Irish Coach Brian Kelly’s team could certainly use a win after three consecutive throwaway losses. Although his job is not in jeopardy despite strategic blunders against Northwestern, the alarming regression of quarterback Everett Golson and a failed experiment with musical holders in his kicking game, Kelly knows that a victory on Saturday will transform the storyline of this season from being defined by disappointment to relative success. The ability of Kelly and Sarkisian to triage the numerous maladies impacting their respective teams and raise their deflated spirits for one final conflict will determine the outcome.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. USC’S DEFENSE

The Trojans play an aggressive form of defense that is designed to create turnovers and negative plays. This group must be salivating after watching film of Golson, and star defensive end Leonard Williams can look to increase his sack total. The matchup between Williams and Notre Dame’s Ronnie Stanley should be a classic, and one that may repeat on Sunday’s for years to come. USC’s front four is anchored by Williams and tackle Antwaun Woods, and also features a pair of smallish but very productive linebackers in senior Hayes Pullard and sophomore Su’a Cravens, a converted safety. Both are adept at blitzing and have the speed to be quite effective in pass coverage.

It might be a stretch to believe that Kelly will line up and run the ball at this defense, but it would not be a bad idea. Tarean Folston has proven to be an exceptional tailback and the thin Trojan defense has a track record of wilting in the second half. An approach that does not place too much pressure on Golson to carry the team seems logical, but it may be too late in the season to expect such a significant change in direction.

The Irish will be tempted to throw the ball by a secondary that is in as much turmoil as its own. Poor tackling by the safeties has been a topic of conversation this month, and Leon McQuay may be replaced by freshman John Plattenberg at the strong spot this week. At the corners, talented freshman Adoree Jackson joins Kevon Seymour as the starters with Chris Hawkins playing the nickel. The wild card is the veteran Shaw, who was reinstated to the team last week and should be available for spot duty against Notre Dame. He could lend some stability to a group that will have its hands full with the likes of Corey Robinson, former Trojan Amir Carlisle and Will Fuller.

USC also calls numerous blitzes from the secondary, resulting in more than 25 quarterback hits to date. Sarkisian is fully aware of the risks associated with excessive blitzing, but he has seen enough batted balls and turnovers from Golson to want to send more than four pass rushers. “We need to try to get into his face”, he stated this week. “We can’t let him sit in the pocket and see clearly.”

An effective strategy for Notre Dame would be similar to the first half of the Florida State game, where Kelly established Folston early and had Golson throw crisp, short range passes to keep the Seminole blitzers at bay. This might preclude the Irish signal-caller from holding the ball too long while waiting for a long developing play to come open, or scrambling around and getting himself into a pickle. Once the runs and short passes are established, there will be time for the deeper throws. In short, patience is the key to early success and the cumulative wear and tear on the Trojan defense will pay dividends later in the game.

USC’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Quarterback Cody Kessler has racked up some impressive statistics this season, with a 70% completion rate, 30 touchdown passes, and only four interceptions. He has two outstanding receivers in Nelson Agholor and JuJu Smith, along with a capable, proven tight end in Randall Telfair. Wideouts Darreus Rogers and George Farmer are utilized in three and four receiver sets. Kessler is strictly a pocket passer who is deadly accurate when allowed sufficient time to locate his target.

The running game has been solid for USC most of the season, but less productive during the past two games in which the Trojans were defeated. The one-two punch of Javorius Allen and Justin Davis has accounted for 1800 yards on the season, but recent production has been down due to breakdowns along the offensive line. The group fundamentally collapsed against UCLA last week, when they gave up six sacks and failed to establish a running threat. This week’s starters feature three true freshmen, including plus-sized guard Damien Mama, who is replacing Khaliel Rodgers. Mama’s classmates, left tackle Toa Lobendahn and right guard Viane Talamaivao, have struggled as well but remain in the lineup.

USC has made a practice of jumping on teams early in games and holding on for dear life. The Trojans have scored 100 more points than opponents in the first quarter, but only 101 overall. Sarkisian is a capable offensive tactician who will attempt once again to take an early lead on the Irish and induce Kelly to abandon the run. Notre Dame simply cannot allow USC to build a sizeable advantage, and turnovers by Golson would add gasoline to that fire. The Irish must be focused on stopping the run and playing tight coverage on the Trojan receivers. After his protection was knocked into oblivion by the Bruins, Kessler can be expected to deliver the ball quickly to the outside or dump it off to Allen.

Soft play by the Notre Dame cornerbacks would reward that strategy, and Brian VanGorder’s blitzes would be ineffective. The availability of Cody Riggs could be an important factor for the Irish, who have struggled to find a capable replacement opposite Cole Luke once Riggs’ foot injury limited his participation. Of course, the risk of tight coverage is that the safeties can maintain discipline and not allow the speedy Trojan receivers to run past them. This has been a point of failure for both teams this season, but Irish starters Max Redfield and Elijah Shumate are still occupying Kelly’s doghouse.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Despite his team’s lack of depth, Sarkisian has been able to put quality special teams on the field. Jackson is among the nation’s best kick returners and has a 100 yard touchdown to his credit, while Agholor has returned two punts for scores. The coverage teams are solid and kicker Andre Heidari has exhibited range and reliability beyond fifty yards. Notre Dame must be very vigilant in this area, or a long return can send them home with a fourth consecutive loss.

On the other side of the ledger, Notre Dame’s kicking game hit another low last week when holder Malik Zaire and kicker Kyle Brindza had words on the sideline following a critical miss in a three point loss to Louisville. It’s not clear whether the previously demoted Hunter Smith will reassume this role on Saturday, but Brindza’s confidence level is clearly an issue.

SUMMARY

Neither team should be a mystery to the other at this point in the season. The Irish know that stopping the run is the key to beating USC and the Trojans realize that Golson does not perform well when he is subjected to pressure in the pocket. The parallels in how their seasons have unfolded are also noteworthy. Both squads are depleted defensively and playing several freshmen. Tackling has become an issue, exacerbated by the reluctance of the coaches to run full contact practices. Each team has experienced the agony of defeat in the final seconds on more than one occasion, and it would not be a surprise to see this battle go down to the wire.

The winner will be the team that is more focused despite all that has transpired this season. Turnovers, penalties and mental errors have plagued both teams at inopportune times, and the abundance of youth on both sides makes it more difficult to overcome and maintain resolve. While the players are responsible for what happens on the field, this game will truly be a test of both coaches.

Here are a few questions that will have a bearing on the outcome:

Which offensive staff will have a better plan to combat the blitz?

Will the Irish keep from falling behind in the first quarter?

Can Golson find a cure for his turnover epidemic?

Will Notre Dame’s special teams malfunction at a critical juncture?

Which team’s running game will gain traction?

Can either defense record a stop in the fourth quarter?

Which secondary will be able to avoid getting torched for long gains?

Will Irish fans remember to apply their SPF 50 sunscreen?

PREDICTION

Notre Dame’s performances over the past three weeks make it all too easy to pick the Trojans to win. The hosts don’t have much left in the tank, either, and don’t have the fortitude or the horses to come back from a deficit as they did in historic fashion 40 years ago. I don’t get the sense that the Irish have given up on the season, and this rivalry should bring out the best they can muster. The quality of play may be ugly at times and the winner may be the team that has the ball last, but it promises to be good theater. One catastrophic special teams collapse or brain cramp by Golson can spoil the day for Notre Dame, but this is the type of game that their scrappy Irish coach finds a way to win.

NOTRE DAME 38 USC 34