Notre Dame hits the road for the first time in a month to face the undefeated Miami Hurricanes at Hard Rock Stadium in a game that will solidify the college football playoff position of the winner and deal a crushing blow to the hopes of the loser. The third ranked Fighting Irish are coming off their worst defensive performance of the season, while the seventh ranked Canes played their best overall game in beating Virginia Tech. A sellout crowd will be on hand for the 8:00 PM EST kickoff while ABC provides national television coverage.

Miami is riding the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 games, which dates back to the 30-27 loss last year in South Bend. Their success is attributable to an aggressive, swarming defense and the playmaking ability of quarterback Malik Rosier. Head Coach Mark Richt is in his second year at his alma mater after a 9-4 campaign in 2016. The Canes have made great strides this season with nine returning starters on defense, yet they have very few seniors on either side of the ball.

At this stage of the season and with so much at stake, both teams understand the significance of the game. Miami players didn’t downplay questions regarding the often bitter history between the programs. “It’s absolutely a rivalry,” offensive lineman Kc McDermott said. “It’s Miami-Notre Dame. They made a 30 for 30 about this. This is a rivalry – no questions about it – and we are going to be ready for it.”

“It’s like Florida State,” safety Jaquan Johnson said of the rivalry. “We have to beat them. We have to find a way to win. That’s our mentality; we have to find a way. It’s a big rivalry and we want to win. We want it for us and we want it for the city.”

The Irish continue to dominate on the ground despite bothersome injuries to their top three running backs. Josh Adams, Dexter Williams and Tony Jones will be available and hopefully at or near full strength. Tight end Alize Mack is expected to return after missing last week’s game with a concussion, and defensive end Khalid Kareem listed as probably despite a sore knee. Quarterback Brandon Wimbush is nursing a bruised left hand, but it should not affect his performance.

The Hurricanes just lost reserve defensive end Demetrius Jackson for the season. Jackson had been a strong contributor in terms of tackles for loss and sacks, categories in which Miami has been among the national leaders. Star tailback Mark Walton went down earlier in the year and has been replaced by sophomore Travis Homer, who has filled in admirably. Some good news for Miami is cornerback Dee Delaney may be ready to return after a four-week injury absence. Otherwise, the Canes have been quite healthy this season.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. MIAMI’S DEFENSE

Turnover creation has been a strength for Miami’s defense this season. The team has developed a gold chain for players to wear on the bench when they come to the sidelines after a takeaway, and it has become a popular rallying cry for the Canes. The team sports an impressive 20-9 turnover ratio for the season. Miami also leads the country in tackles for loss, where seven different players have recorded more than five such plays.

The Irish offensive line will have its hands full with an active and aggressive front seven. Ends Joe Jackson, Chad Thomas and reserve Trent Harris are fast edge rushers with sufficient size, and tackles Kendrick Norton and R.J. McIntosh, brother of Notre Dame tailback Deon McIntosh, are difficult to move inside. Middle linebacker Shaquille Quarterman is a thumper who is flanked by Michael Pinckney and Zach McCloud. All are very athletic and can play the pass effectively as well as the run.

Although the statistics indicate that teams have run reasonably well against this unit, their ability to create negative plays to kill drives and tighten up in the red zone has kept opponents from scoring more than 17 points per game on average. Miami has surrendered touchdowns on only 38% of opponent’s trips inside their 20. The best strategy for Notre Dame will be to run right at them with power to negate their pursuit speed and willingness to take chances. The Irish must also avoid negative plays in scoring territory that turn seven points into three.

Wimbush will be facing a strong secondary when he drops back to pass. Delaney’s return at corner adds an experienced, physical defender to the mix that includes Malek Young and emerging star Michael Jackson. Safeties Sheldrick Redwine and Johnson are the best pair the Irish will face this season. It’s well past time for Notre Dame’s receivers to elevate their performance and keep Wimbush from having to scramble for first downs while absorbing numerous hits.

MIAMI’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

It seems that the passing combination of quarterback Malik Rosier to wideout Braxton Berrios is on the highlight reel every week. The two have developed excellent chemistry, as evidenced by 36 completions and seven touchdowns, often in critical situations. The other top receiver that has been flying under the radar is tight end Christopher Herndon, who is second on the team with 32 catches and five scores. Both Berrios and Herndon are seniors and can cause headaches for the Irish secondary. The rest of the group includes underclassmen Ahmmon Richards, Darrell Langham and Jeff Thomas, who have each enjoyed shining moments this season and have speed to burn.

Rosier’s form in the pocket is not classic by any means, as evidenced by his 56% completion rate and the team’s comparatively low 31% conversion rate on third down. What Rosier does is make winning plays when they are needed most, such as a fourth and ten conversion against Georgia Tech to set up the decisive field goal, a third and 20 strike to Richards and a last second scoring pass to Langham to beat Florida State, or a 48-yard bomb to Thomas to ice the win against Syracuse.

A strong offensive line helped Rosier shoulder the offensive load when Walton went down after averaging over 100 yards in the first four games. The left side is manned by another pair of seniors, tackle McDermott and guard Trevor Darling. The rest of the group is young but talented. Freshman Navaughn Donaldson, a 6’6” 350-pound right guard, is hard to miss.

Walton was averaging over 100 yards rushing per game prior to his injury, but Homer has contributed 76 yards per game and is an excellent receiver. Rosier is not a running threat at the level of Wimbush, but he is elusive and adept at extending plays with his legs. The strength of this Miami team is in its speed and ability to strike quickly rather than score on ten play marches of 70+ yards. Notre Dame’s defensive back seven will be under stress all night, and will need plenty of help from the front four to prevent the big play.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Irish kicker Justin Yoon finally had a few opportunities to attempt field goals last week, and he converted two of three with a 50-yarder on line but falling a few yards short. His Miami counterpart, Michael Badgley, has hit every one of his attempts inside 40 yards this season but is one of three from 50 yards or more. Freshman punter Zach Feagles doesn’t boot the ball as far as Notre Dame’s Tyler Newsome, but his punts are rarely returned.

The Hurricanes have a dangerous weapon with Berrios returning punts at a 16-yard clip. Jeff Thomas is the man on kickoffs, but that unit has been rather ordinary. The Irish could use a boost on kick returns from C.J. Sanders, who has shown signs of life during the past couple of weeks.

SUMMARY

The Irish rushing attack and Miami’s potential vulnerability to the run appears to give the visitors an advantage heading into the contest, however the comparative play of the quarterbacks may be a larger factor in determining the outcome. Both Wimbush and Rosier are dynamic athletes, but the degree of pressure each faces could lead to mistakes. Wimbush will have to adjust to the speed of the Hurricane defense while Rosier might be forced to throw numerous passes while on the move. The offensive line that handles its opponent’s pressure and keeps its quarterback stress-free will have the best chance of winning.

While Notre Dame has proven to be very resilient this year, a sudden, early 14-point deficit in this venue could turn into a feeding frenzy for the Canes and is something the Irish must have the poise and preparation to avoid. Where Notre Dame successfully employed tight coverage against NC State and Wake Forest because they did not have receivers capable of running past the secondary, the Canes do not have any such limitations.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Will Notre Dame stick to running the ball in the face of adversity?

Which team will be wearing the turnover chain at the end of the game?

Can the Irish settle down and play well in an extremely hostile environment?

Which team will best complete drives and reach the end zone?

Will a special teams play result in a game-changing moment?

Can the Irish turn the Canes into a one-dimensional offense?

Which team will be able to connect on long passes?

Will there be controversial plays that fans will gripe about for the next 30 years?

PREDICTION

What concerns me is that this game may not follow conventional analysis. It will definitely not be for the faint of heart, and any Notre Dame fans (there are many) who suggest the Irish will roll over the Hurricanes are kidding themselves. The combination of talent, speed and emotion on the field will generate exciting plays as well as uncharacteristic mistakes. While the Irish have been great front-runners this season and have established a solid formula for success, Miami’s ability to improvise and produce improbable heroics should concern any Notre Dame fan. The city has generated various nightmares as recently as January 2013 or as far back as the Reagan administration. The home crowd will help the Canes, and on this night it may be better to be lucky than good. Still, I can’t help but believe that the impact of unforeseen events will even out over sixty minutes, and the better team will escape with a win.

NOTRE DAME 30 MIAMI 27