Notre Dame opens its 2022 season on Saturday night on the road against the Ohio State Buckeyes. The pundits have picked the uber-talented hosts to win the national championship this season. That is understandable given their prolific aerial attack and three legitimate Heisman Trophy candidates. The Fighting Irish feature a veteran defense and a youthful offense. Quarterback Tyler Buchner will make his first career start. His supporting cast features fellow sophomores at key positions including both tackle spots and a pair of wide receivers. This game will be nationally televised by ABC starting at 7:30 pm Eastern time.

Coach Ryan Day boasts a 34-4 record since taking over the helm at OSU in 2019. His teams have dominated the Big-10 but have faltered in out of conference matchups against other elite programs. Last September’s home upset loss to Oregon was a surprise, while a late season defeat at the hands of archrival Michigan was nothing short of catastrophic. Day has reloaded in 2022 but claims this year’s group is more focused despite the lofty expectations.

“I think coming off of last year, there are no big heads,” Day said. “This team is hungry. This team has been hungry. It’s been gritty. We have to go win this first game, and they know that. There are no big heads on this team. We’ve got a lot to prove.”

The new face on the Ohio State coaching staff is Defensive Coordinator Jim Knowles, who left Oklahoma State to work for Day. Irish fans will remember that Notre Dame and Offensive Coordinator Tom Rees faced Knowles’ defensive scheme earlier this year in the Fiesta Bowl.

Head Coach Marcus Freeman has implemented more significant changes in South Bend since taking the reins this past winter. He revamped the rest of the staff on both sides of the ball after Brian Kelly’s departure, although Rees remains in the same slot. Freeman replaced himself as Defensive Coordinator with Al Golden, a talented and experienced hand at both the college and professional levels.

On the player front, Buchner won the quarterback job this summer over Drew Pyne. Wide receiver is a major concern since the production of 2021 stalwarts Kevin Austin (graduated) and Avery Davis (injury) is no longer available. Fifth-year man Braden Lenzy returns at one spot. His 350 receiving yards over the 2021 season are just three more than the 347 delivered by Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba in last year’s Rose Bowl win over Utah.

The good news is Buchner will have All-American tight end Michael Mayer to target. Mayer will get his share of catches despite attracting significant attention from opposing defenses. His job will be easier if the group of young wideouts that includes sophomores Lorenzo Styles, Jaden Thomas, and Deion Colzie, along with freshman Tobias Merriweather can quickly come of age. Senior Joe Wilkins will also be in the mix assuming he is ready after suffering a broken foot in the spring. Former walk-on Matt Salerno is another possibility. The ranks are so thin that safety Xavier Watts has been asked to take snaps at receiver where he started his college career. Watts is a capable athlete and could see action on either side of the ball.

These two teams have numerous similarities apart from the respective passing games, where a wide talent and experience gulf exists. Both offensive lines have outstanding tackles and serviceable players inside. The defensive lines are deep and capable. Each set of linebackers has talent and a moderate level of experience, but there are questions marks on both sides. Each secondary boasts an excellent center fielder to lead a group of inconsistent or untested cornerbacks and safeties.

On the injury front, Notre Dame suffered only a few but each has been costly. Davis is out for the season and his college career may be over. Freshman running back Jadarian Price was the talk of spring practice until he tore his Achilles. The most significant impact on Saturday is the loss of senior guard Jarrett Patterson, an All-American who went down with a foot injury two weeks ago. Freeman has shared little information except to list Patterson as questionable for this game. He had been wearing a cumbersome walking boot before returning yesterday to light duty in practice.

A healthy Patterson would solidify Notre Dame’s offensive front, but there are three more likely scenarios for him on Saturday. None are encouraging. First, he will miss the game entirely. Second, he will play at far less than 100%. Third, he will attempt to play but will not be able to stay in the game.

Ohio State reports one recent injury. Backup tailback Evan Pryor is out for the season after going down with a knee injury last week. Also, defensive end Mitchell Melton and running back Marcus Crowley suffered major injuries during the spring and will not play this fall.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE’S DEFENSE

Freeman has demanded improvements in the running game since taking over. It is not a stretch to believe he had this week’s matchup in mind when he made that decree since Notre Dame must run well to win. Freeman’s selection of Harry Hiestand for a second tour of duty as the Irish Offensive Line Coach was a key step in that process. The 2021 line struggled to open holes last season despite the gritty heroics of tailback Kyren Williams. The Fiesta Bowl failures underscored that weakness. Williams is now in the NFL but most of the starting linemen from last season are back.

While tackles Blake Fisher and Joe Alt are exceptional, the middle of the line is suspect without Patterson. Part time 2021 starter Andrew Kristofec will fill in at left guard for Patterson while Zeke Correll lines up at center. Both are undersized, regardless of the heights and weights listed for them in the program. Right guard Josh Lugg, a sixth-year veteran, has moved inside from tackle to complete the group. He is limited athletically and has been a liability in pass protection. Lugg also struggles to move defenders off the ball in the running game. He is said to be healthy this year after having played with back issues for most of his career.Hiestand’s instruction will help this group reach its potential but it will not be enough to dominate the Buckeyes.

Ohio State’s defensive line has a pair of quality ends in J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. They are backed up by Zach Harrison and Javontae Jean-Baptiste. All will play on Saturday. Sawyer has been productive in the past but the Buckeyes are counting on Tuimoloau to have a breakout season. Sawyer and Jean-Baptiste are similar to Notre Dame’s Vyper ends in that they also drop into coverage. This hybrid spot is a legacy position for the Buckeyes and it is not certain how Knowles plans to deploy his front four. He did not use a Vyper at Oklahoma State.

Notre Dame will face a five-man rotation at defensive tackle. Taron Vincent and Jerron Cage are the starters with Tyliek Williams, Ty Hamilton, and Mike Hall in reserve. The battle between this group and the Irish offensive front sans Patterson will have a significant impact on the outcome.

It is likely that Knowles will continue to align in his preferred 4-2-5 configuration with an extra safety. Tommy Eichenberg is the starter in the middle linebacker with Steele Chambers at the weak side. Neither is an All-American at this stage but both are solid players.

The Irish must run consistently against this group to control the game and have a chance to win. If they can create holes for Chris Tyree (lightning) and Audric Estime (thunder), the game may be closer than most folks expect. If Buchner can chip in with a few designed runs or productive RPO keepers, so much the better.

To combat this strategy, Knowles will attempt to keep his safeties close to the line of scrimmage and dare Buchner to beat them through the air. Ohio State will gamble that the Irish youthful passing attack will be a work in progress rather than a threat to light up the scoreboard. They will naturally pay close attention to Mayer and try to deny the quick, easy throw. Knowles will also employ pre-snap coverage changes to confuse Buchner and create misreads or late throws.

The final element in this category is the matchup between Notre Dame’s receivers and the Buckeye secondary. Knowles brought Tanner McAlister with him from Oklahoma State to play the hybrid safety position. McAlister is better against the run while vulnerable in coverage. The Buckeye corners are Denzel Burke and Cameron Brown. Both are returning starters who played well overall in 2021 but struggled with consistency. Jordan Hancock is the next man in. Joining McAlister on the back end are free safety Ronnie Hickman and strong safety Josh Proctor. Hickman is the team’s leading tackler and best pass defender.

The Irish receivers will have to be able to gain separation and haul in some passes downfield, or it will be a long night for the visitors. Lenzy has shown improvement under Coach Chansi Stuckey but he tends to disappear for long stretches and rarely delivers a big play despite his exceptional speed. Styles is the steadiest of the group. Buchner needs to find him early and often to take pressure off Mayer. The wild card is Thomas, who has excelled in camp after a quiet freshman season in 2021. Obviously, the Irish have more questions than answers as they head to Columbus.

OHIO STATE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Quarterback C.J. Stroud leads the attack that led the nation in total yards and points last season. He completed 72% of his throws for 4,435 yards and 44 touchdowns with only six interceptions. After losing Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson to the NFL, Smith-Njigba is the most experienced returning receiver. Coach Mike Hartline’s recruiting pipeline continues to produce as young studs such as Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Emeka Egbuka are poised to contribute. Julian Fleming is another top-rated prospect just itching for an opportunity after two injury-plagued years in the program.

Stroud will operate behind an experienced line comprised of elite recruits out of high school. Center Luke Wypler is a returning starter. The guards are veteran Matt Jones and highly touted sophomore Donovan Jackson. Left tackle Paris Johnson played guard last season but is built to play on the edge. When Dawand Jones, a massive human at 6’9” and at least 360 pounds, lines up at right tackle he puts that whole side of the field in shade.

This group clears lanes for a stable of dynamic running backs led by TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams. Henderson joins Stroud and Smith-Njigba as legitimate Heisman candidates. Their presence in the lineup gives the pass-heavy OSU attack a degree of balance. It should be noted, however, that the running game faltered last year in big games. This could have been due to fewer repetitions in practice in favor of the passing attack. Day will say only that establishing the run is a major point of emphasis heading into this season.

Notre Dame’s plan will be based on rotating fresh linemen into the game to stop the run and exert maximum pressure on Stroud. Disrupting his time in the pocket is the only way to slow down Ohio State’s electric passing game, but Michigan proved last November it can be done. Isaiah Foskey, Rylie Mills, Howard Cross and the Ademilola brothers (Jayson and Justin) are among those who will go to war for the Irish in the trenches.

The Irish are improved at linebacker with a healthy Marist Liufau and the emergence of Prince Kollie. They are experienced in the middle J.D. Bertrand will share duties with Bo Bauer. Bertrand played much of last season at less than 100% and still led the team in tackles. Jack Kiser has been a solid contributor who returns at the rover position. Coach Freeman has recruited four outstanding freshmen who will be battling for playing time before the season is over. They are Nolan Ziegler, Junior Tuihalamaka, Josh Burnham and Jaylen Sneed.

Despite the presence of three returning starters at cornerback, this is the area of weakness on an otherwise solid defense. Cam Hart is the best of the group. He is joined by Clarence Lewis and Tariq Bracy, who will match up with Smith-Njigba when he lines up in his typical position in the slot. Lewis was victimized in the Fiesta Bowl and was heavily criticized by the fan base.

Media reports highlight Improvements by this group in the spring and fall with the help of intensive coaching. Still, they were practicing against a very average set of receivers and quarterbacks who are far less accurate than Stroud. Unbridled optimism regarding their ability to cover Smith-Njigba and Harrison should be taken with a grain of salt.

Freeman and Golden understand this and will plan accordingly. The Irish will play a lot of zone coverage and work hard to disguise their pre-snap looks. Free safety Brandon Joseph will be a key element in this plan. He has played against Ohio State while at Northwestern and has a working knowledge of Stroud and his tendencies. One of his main responsibilities will be to anticipate where the ball is going and arrive there in time to make a play on it. He will also try to keep everything in front of him. Notre Dame has no chance to win if the Buckeyes are scoring touchdowns from long range.

Freeman will name Joseph’s running mate at safety just prior to kickoff. Veterans Houston Griffith, D.J. Brown and Ramon Henderson are in the mix. All will see action.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame will debut a new kicker and punter this season. Jon Sot, a graduate transfer from Harvard, impressed sufficiently this summer to secure the punting job. Another graduate transfer, Blake Grupe, was named as the starting place kicker after winning his competition. Grupe had a poor spring but recovered this fall to demonstrate the best combination of distance and consistency. Bryce McFerson will handle kickoffs.

Joseph was named as the primary punt return man while Tyree will continue returning kicks. Increased emphasis by new Special Teams Coach Brian Mason could mean that these units will be worth watching for potential impact plays.

Ohio State returns its specialists from a year ago. Kicker Noah Ruggles made all but one of his field goal attempts in 2021 and converted all 74 extra points. Punter Jesse Mirco averaged 42 yards per attempt. The ever-versatile Smith-Njigba will return punts while Egbuka will bring back kickoffs for the second straight season.

These units for both teams are populated by excellent athletes. I concede a slight advantage to the Buckeyes in the overall category because their specialists are incumbents and they will be kicking in familiar surrounds.

SUMMARY

There are several things Notre Dame must do to win this game. It starts with controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. For the offense, the running game must be able to grind out first downs. Buchner must be given time to find receivers and make good decisions. This assumes Mayer is not always double covered and the wideouts can gain separation when he is taken away by the defense. You will know the plan is not working if Buchner is scrambling for his life before desperately throwing the ball over the middle.

Defensively, the Irish front seven must stuff the run and create obvious passing situations. Then they will be asked to cause sufficient havoc to disrupt Stroud and the timing between him and his receivers. The more they are able to get off the field on third down, the better their chances. The key for the secondary is to make sure tackles so as to prevent 20+ yard plays from Henderson or 40+ yard plays through the air. Notre Dame has the talent to have a measure of success in all of these areas but there are bound to be breakdowns.

Individually, Notre Dame’s best players must have strong performances. Mayer must work through multiple coverage schemes and pick up first downs for Buchner. Foskey must use his speed and hands to bring pressure regardless of who is trying to block him. Alt and Fisher must stuff the Buckeye edge rushers. Finally, Buchner must play a solid game and not lose his composure. Irish fans still have nightmares about Brandon Wimbush in Miami a few years ago.

I believe Freeman and Golden will acquit themselves well in terms of defensive strategy and adjustments. Even with their best efforts, however, it is difficult to imagine holding OSU to fewer than 30 points. I am more concerned with the offense, where Oklahoma State outmaneuvered Rees and Freeman in Tempe. Knowles will strive to stop the run and force Buchner into heroic attempts that can only lead to mistakes.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Can the Irish establish and maintain a productive rushing attack?
• Will Joseph be a difference maker in the Notre Dame secondary?
• Can Isaiah Foskey and the Irish generate a pass rush sufficient to disrupt Stroud’s accuracy?
• Will Notre Dame’s receivers prove they belong on the field with their OSU counterparts?
• Can the new look Irish special teams make a meaningful contribution?
• Will Rees get the better of Knowles this time around?
• Can Freeman do better in a night game on the road than his predecessor?
• Will Jesus forgive me for refusing to refer to this opponent as THE Ohio State University?

PREDICTION

By now you are tired of reading how great the Buckeye offense is. It is difficult to withhold the superlatives when you realize that Smith-Njigba led the Buckeyes in receiving last season by a wide margin despite the presence of two NFL first round draft choices. When you consider data points like that with a new Irish coaching staff, a quarterback making his first career start, and the same old cornerbacks on defense, it puts a damper on this Domer’s pregame bravado.

Still, I am not sold on Day as a great head coach and Ohio State is not invincible when they play a physical opponent with above average talent. Notre Dame needs a strong first quarter to settle in and build its confidence. A victory may be a bridge too far but national respect is a worthwhile reward with the opportunities that remain this season. I do expect this to be a better matchup than most people predict, though. One thing for certain is Irish fans should not give up on Freeman and this team no matter what happens. This is a talented group with strong leadership and a lot of good young players. They will get better each week, and who knows where they will be at the end of November.

OHIO STATE 34 NOTRE DAME 20