Most Big East teams have played nine conference games, including Notre Dame.  All have played at least eight games.  It’s halftime in the conference season.  It’s time to cue The Amazing Christopher and take a look at the stats.

It’s hard to imagine that there has ever been a more interesting, competitive and entertaining Big East season than 2010-11 has been so far.  A mere game and a half separates the second place team, Louisville, from the tenth place team, Marquette.  11 teams have overall winning percentages of .600 or better.  11^th place St. John’s beat Duke which was ranked #3 nationally.  12^th place Seton Hall went to Syracuse and won.  14^th place Providence knocked off Villanova.  No game is a gimme, possibly except those against DePaul; and even the Blue Demons have freshman Cleveland Melvin among the league’s scoring leaders.

Five Big East teams are in the RPI* top 10.  Two more are in the top 15, including #11 Notre Dame; and another three are in the top 40.  Top 40 RPI teams almost always make the NCAA Tournament.  Will the Big East get 10 bids if it can maintain such lofty rankings?  Stay tuned.

The Irish

Most ND fans are pleased with its first half, rightfully so.  To be sitting on a 6-3 record and be alone in third place would be an accomplishment against anyone’s conference schedule, but nobody in the conference had a tougher first half schedule.  Seven of its nine games were against those top 40 RPI teams noted above.  The other two were against Marquette, the #61 RPI.

The second half schedule isn’t easy, but the Irish will get several games against the bottom of the conference starting with DePaul (0-8) on Thursday.  Rutgers (3-6), USF (2-7), Seton Hall (4-6), and Providence (2-7) are also on the February docket.  Home games against Villanova (5-3) and Louisville (6-2) and road games against WVU (5-3) and UConn (5-3) complete the schedule.

Don’t count the chickens yet, but 6-3 is a very doable second half, and 7-2 is not a reach.

Road Woes

All three of Notre Dame’s conference losses came on the road.  The Marquette and St. John’s losses were particularly troubling because the Irish shot so poorly, just 6-31 from three point range in the two games.  Among the top ten teams in the conference, only Villanova’s road shooting differential (-11.6 percentage points) is worse than ND’s (-10.9).  Don’t put undue stock in that stat because there are some teams that don’t shoot well at home or on the road, but it does indicate that ND has an issue to correct if it wants to succeed in the postseason.

The victory at Pitt last Monday was a good start at correcting the road shooting woes.  The Irish made 9-18 shots from three point range while running their slowdown offense.  Watch to see if that performance was anomaly or the beginning of a good trend.

Playing for Seeding

At this time of the year, we’re usually wondering what it will take for Notre Dame to make the NCAA Tournament.  This year, it will take a monumental collapse to keep it out.  Instead, the mission is to get a high seed in both the Big East and NCAA tourneys, and the Irish are on track to do just that.

Nobody wants to play four games in four days a week before the NCAA Tournament, but that’s what it takes to win the Big East Tournament for a team that doesn’t finish in the top four.  The top four get a double bye into the quarterfinals and can play no more than three games in the tournament.

It has taken a 13-5 record to make the top four for the last three seasons, but four teams winning 13 games doesn’t seem likely this year.  All but two have three losses already, and the contenders have tough schedules remaining.  Here is a look at the challenges the 5-3 teams face:

• UConn has to play Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Cincinnati, WVU, ND, and SJU.
• Villanova has Marquette, WVU, Pitt, Syracuse, SJU, ND, and Pitt again.
• West Virginia has to play Cincinnati, Villanova, Pitt, Syracuse, ND, Pitt again, UConn, and Louisville.

All of those teams will be hard pressed to finish with just two more losses and a 13-5 record. They’ll be fortunate to get to 12-6.

Also, Louisville is a half game ahead of ND in second place at 6-2. UL has to play Georgetown, Syracuse, Cincinnati, UConn, Pitt, and WVU as well as the game against ND in the JACC.  UL will take some losses.

Then comes the NCAA Tournament where seeding is the key to first weekend success.  A #1 seed plays #16 followed by the winner of the game between #8 and #9, a virtual cakewalk to the round of 16.  A #2 seed gets #15 followed by the winner of #7 vs. #10, also a strong path to the round of 16.  Even #3 has a manageable path to the second week of the tournament without having to play over its head.

The Irish are in great shape for a top three seed in its region if it can match or improve on its first half record.  They have plenty of quality wins both inside the conference and during the non-conference season with 7 wins against the RPI top 50 and more likely as the conference season progresses.

Isn’t it nice to worry about seeding instead of making the tournament?

For the Stat Hounds

Ben Hansbrough is leading the Irish in scoring at 18.1 points per conference game.  Tim Abromaitis (11.8) and Carleton Scott (10.1) join him in double figures with Scott Martin and Ty Nash both at 9.2 ppg.  Eric Atkins is the leading scorer off the bench with a 7.3 average.

Hansbrough is currently 6^th among the Big East’s scoring leaders.  Marshon Brooks (PC), Kemba Walker (UConn), Cleveland Melvin (DePaul), Darius Johnson-Odom (MU), and Austin Freeman (GU) are ahead of him.

Five ND players average between five and six rebounds per game – Scott (5.6), Martin (5.3), Nash (5.3), and Abromaitis (5.1).

Overall, the Irish have a negative rebounding margin (-1.5).  That stat is likely to improve because they have games remaining against the bottom five rebounding teams in the conference – DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, Seton Hall, and Louisville.

The Irish have assisted 60% or more of their baskets for the last six seasons.  No other Big East team has a streak longer than two years.  This year is no different for ND with assists on 65% of its baskets.  It continues to be one of the best passing teams in the conference.

Notre Dame’s assist/turnover ratio is unusually low – 1.1.  That’s just 9^th in the conference.  Atkins is ND’s leader with an excellent 2.1 in almost 30 minutes per game.  Hansbrough is second at 1.9.

The Rest of the Season

The best thing the Irish can do is treat the easier second half like it did the difficult first half.  There is too much to prove to treat it any other way.

Can this team shoot well on the road?  Can it win consistently on the road?  It looks like a good rebounding team, but it has a negative margin.  Can it own the boards against the lesser teams on the schedule?  Can the Irish do a better job limiting turnovers, especially the guys who have more turnovers than assists?

None of these issues are egregiously bad, but any of them can bite ND at tournament time.  The coaches and the players know what the issues are, and they think they can improve.  How well they do so will tell you how hopeful to be in mid-March.

– Kevin O’Neill

* Source: collegerpi.com