Irish 2023 Outlook

Notre Dame’s 2023 football season is about to commence, and there has been surprisingly little buzz about a team that appears to be the most talented and balanced version of the Fighting Irish since 2018. Experience and overall chemistry are other positive factors that make this squad a threat to challenge for a playoff position in the last season of the four-team tournament. Beginning in 2024, the format is expanded to include 12 teams.

OFFENSE

The most significant change from the player personnel side this year is at quarterback. Sam Hartman graduated from Wake Forest and selected Notre Dame as his fifth year destination in order to improve his stock for next year’s NFL draft. To date, he has been everything the Irish were looking for from a talent and leadership perspective. His presence will allow the offense to do something it has been reluctant to do in the past several years – use the entire field in the passing game.

Sam Hartman is a major upgrade at quarterback

The middle of the field and deep routes very rarely explored with Ian Book, Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne at quarterback. Jack Coan was somewhat of an exception in 2021 but his lack of mobility was a drawback. Hartman brings above average skills both inside the pocket and as a runner. The threat he poses should keep defenses honest and make the Irish less predictable. Deeper drops by linebackers should open up the running game for Audric Estime and a stable of talented backs.

The larger question is whether a relatively young group of receivers can emerge as productive game day contributors. Jayden Thomas is the best returning starter but question marks dot the field beyond that. The true X-factor is sophomore Tobias Merriweather, who will also start on the outside. At 6’4″ with outstanding speed, Merriweather is being counted upon for greater consistency. His playmaking ability is off the charts but showing flashes in practice is a long way from delivering the goods on game day.

Senior Chris Tyree has moved into the slot receiver position after spending his entire career at tailback. Tyree has displayed excellent hands and his speed is unquestioned. Reports to date have been very positive regarding his ability to make an impact this year. Avery Davis had a breakout year at this spot in 2021, so perhaps Tyree can duplicate or even surpass Davis’ achievements this fall.

Tobias Merriweather is a potential game-breaker for ND

Next in line are veterans Deion Colzie and Matt Salerno, along with a pair of freshmen in Jaden Greathouse and Rico Flores. Colzie has shown flashes in his first two seasons but hasn’t been consistently reliable. This would appear to be a make or break season for him. Salerno, a former walk-on, is a quality role player but is not considered to be a front line starter at this level.

Greathouse enrolled in January and quickly made a positive impression. He burst onto the scene during the spring game and has continued to play well this summer. Flores has also demonstrated the ability to come down with difficult catches and is already a polished route runner. A third freshman, Braylan James, has a very bright future but is slightly behind Greathouse and Flores on the development curve.

The biggest change from last season other than Hartman is at tight end, where a committee will replace All-American Michael Mayer. Mitchell Evans and Holden Staes are the leading names in that group. Veteran Kevin Bauman’s career path has been derailed by a knee injury once again. He is lost for the season. Sophomore Eli Raridon is on the mend after tearing his right ACL for the second time last season. The good news is that Raridon will play this season, but probably not in September. If healthy, he is the most talented athlete in this group.

The offensive line appears to be stronger than last season. The coaches made it a priority to get bigger and stronger in the middle, and they have been able to achieve that goal. New line coach Joe Rudolph came over from Wisconsin when Harry Hiestand retired last winter, and he is quietly putting his stamp on this unit. Junior tackles Joe Alt and Blake Fisher return as bookend starters for their third season. Alt is a team captain and likely All-American at left tackle, while Fisher has honed his massive body to dominate opponents. Most pundits expect both to join the NFL next season, although I would like to see Fisher return in 2024 for his senior year and play on the left side to increase his draft position.

Guard Rocco Spindler has finally earned a starting job

Center Zeke Correll has worked very hard over the offseason to maximize his size and strength for the trench warfare he will face this year. In past seasons, he has battled gamely but often proved to be too small to win against the more powerful defensive linemen on the schedule. By all reports, Correll is stronger and ready to hold up against anyone.

The guard positions have been problematic in recent seasons and were a focus area in camp for Rudolph and Head Coach Marcus Freeman. Rudolph emphasized size and power without sacrificing execution. Three candidates have emerged in juniors Rocco Spindler and Pat Coogan, along with sophomore Billy Schrauth. Veteran Andrew Kristofec, who has started previously but lacks ideal size, is the fourth option right now. Rudolph’s best achievement may be getting the physically imposing Spindler ready to play. He had been kept off the field in the past by problems with quickness and execution. Both Spindler and Rudolph have worked hard to mitigate these weaknesses.

Center Ashton Craig, tackle Aamil Wagner, and guard/tackle Charles Jagusah are talented youngsters waiting in the wings .

Audric Estime leads a talented group of running backs

Tailback appears to be well stocked with several players that are ready to contribute. Estime is the clear leader of the pack. His combination of power, agility and pass receiving ability make him a valuable weapon, especially in an offense that can throw the ball successfully. Graduate transfer Devyn Ford left Penn State to find playing time at Notre Dame, and he is on track to earn it. Sophomore Jadarian Price was last spring’s sensation until rupturing his Achilles tendon. Reports are that he is fully recovered and is again flashing the speed and moves that will result in significant opportunities this fall.

There is little dropoff in ability to sophomore Gi’Bran Payne and freshman Jeremiah Love. Payne has been running neck and neck with Ford and Price, while Love is an electrifying athlete who could surpass them all once he develops within the program. Each of these players brings a varied skill set to the offense that Coach Deland McCullough will be able to utilize. It’s certainly one of the strongest position groups on the team.

Gerad Parker was the surprise choice for Offensive Coordinator

This wealth of talent should produce more big plays and points than recent Irish offenses, especially if Hartman proves to be as good as advertised. The one great concern holding back die-hard Notre Dame fans is that the keys to this potential juggernaut have been given to a wholly unproven driver. Gerad Parker was promoted to the Offensive Coordinator position in January after Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick botched the hiring of Utah’s talented and seasoned Coordinator, Andy Ludwig.

Freeman, who really needed a consigliere and not a project at this vital position, was left little time or choice but to elevate Parker. The PR machined tried to put a positive spin on the move, but significant doubts surround Parker and his unimpressive resume as the season is about to unfold. We may not get a true reading on Parker’s fitness for the job until September 23. The matchup with Ohio State will pit Parker against veteran Buckeye DC Jim Knowles, who shut down Tom Rees and Freeman last year in Columbus.

DEFENSE

On the defensive side, the line is well stocked with quality players who will form a very deep rotation. The unit lacks star power, however, and lack of elite size is also a potential weakness. At strong side defensive end, NaNa Osafa-Mensah will play on most running downs while Javontae Jean-Baptiste will be on the field in passing situations. On the weak side (Vyper), Jordan Botelho is the team’s most productive pass rusher. He will be backed up by Junior Tuihalamaka and Josh Burnham. Promising sophomore Aiden Gobaira was recently lost for the season with a knee injury.

The Irish need a breakout campaign from DL Rylie Mills

The first four linemen who have emerged on the interior are Rylie Mills, Howard Cross, Jason Onye, and Gabe Rubio. Mills has been singled out in camp as one who appears ready for an outstanding campaign. Tyson Ford, Donovan Hinish and freshman Boubacar Traore have also impressed and may see spot duty.

It’s not yet determinable whether this is good news or bad news, but the starting linebackers are the same as last season. Last year’s leading tackler JD Betrand returns in the middle as a team captain along with Hartman, Alt and cornerback Cam Hart. Bertrand is regarded a smart player but he is a liability when playing in space and most of his tackles occur five yards or more past the line of scrimmage. Marist Liufau and Jack Kiser will once again flank Bertrand. Liufau has all the physical tools but rarely makes an impact. He has been susceptible to fakes or misdirection and frequently takes himself out of the play. Kiser is a solid player but has not developed into a difference maker.

Marist Liufau needs to find the ball with greater consistency

The backups are young and talented. Sophomore Jaylen Sneed is fast and should see plenty of action. Freshmen Drayk Bowen (middle) and Jaiden Ausberry (rover) have also earned a spot in the rotation. Nolan Ziegler was expected to contribute this season but he has taken time away to deal with a non football issue.

It’s a rare occasion when I get to type this: Cornerback is the strongest position on the Irish defense. Ben Morrison returns after a sensational freshman campaign that included six interceptions. Hart joins him as a starter, while grad transfer Thomas Harper appears to have locked up the nickel position. The backups include talented young players in sophomore Jaden Mickey and freshman Christian Gray. Mickey has been more consistent this fall after struggling at times last year. Gray enrolled early and has already been identified as a future star.

Can Ben Morrison improve upon a stellar 2022 season?

As in recent seasons, safety remains problematic. Xavier Watts will cover the strong side. He now possesses the experience to complement his physical ability, and should be a solid starter. Familiar names are vying for the nod at free safety. DJ Brown and Ramon Henderson are rightfully known as poor tacklers and defenders who always seem to be a step late to arrive at the ball in pass coverage. The team needs a playmaker here and I’m not sure there is one who is ready. Freshmen Adon Shuler and Ben Minich have shown promise thus far but will need more time in the development pipeline. Shuler has also battled lingering shoulder issues.

Cornerback Clarence Lewis, who is cross training now at safety, is another candidate as is grad transfer Antonio Carter. Neither has yet proven to be an improvement over Brown and Henderson, which is a concern. If Freeman must choose between the latter pair to start the season, Irish fans will have to hope for a miraculous leap in physicality and instincts by either or both.

Xavier Watts will wear #0 this year at strong safety

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame’s special teams were the talk of college football last year under Coach Brian Mason. Seven blocked punts and overall inspired play helped Mason land a position with the Indianapolis Colts this year while Freeman hired Marty Biagi as his replacement. The Irish have the athletes to continue to excel in this area, although the return game has improved only slightly since the disappointing results of the Brian Kelly era. Tyree is now the choice to return punts and will probably remain the main guy on kickoff returns. Love is a player to watch if he earns an opportunity on kickoffs.

Strong-legged sophomore Zac Yoakam and grad transfer Spencer Schrader are competing for the place kicker position. Yoakam was the kickoff specialist last year and recorded a touchback 63% of the time. Schrader had an excellent career at South Florida and is the favorite to win the job. Both are reportedly kicking well in camp, which we know is a far cry from the pressures of game conditions. In other words, the job remains open remains until more evidence is forthcoming. Schrader is likely to get the first opportunity given his more extensive track record.

Punter has been a competiton between home grown sophomore Bryce McFerson and grad transfer Ben Krimm. McFerson has edged ahead in this battle and will likely get the nod against Navy in the season opener. He has a strong leg but struggled with consistency during the spring.

In summary, this year’s edition of the Irish is composed of reliable veterans and players who are being counted upon to raise their level of performance. The latter group includes Merriweather, Colzie, Evans, Correll and the guards on offense. For the defense, it’s primarily Mills, Botelho, Liufau, Watts, Brown and Henderson. Both place kickers and McFerson must be added to this list as well.

From a coaching standpoint, Freeman must apply the lessons he learned as a first year head coach last season. Marshall is not on the schedule this year but there are a number of inferior teams that could pull off an upset if Notre Dame falters. Parker is next in line for microscopic scrutiny, and for good reason as noted above. Other assistants who must deliver are Chansi Stuckey (wide receivers) and Al Golden (defensive coordinator).

That aside, this season will be judged by the results in three critical contests. Ohio State and USC are at home while Clemson is on the road. Winning one of those games will be regarded (by me) as mediocre. Two wins will be most welcome and possibly a ticket to the playoffs. A sweep either way would be cause for extreme elation or severe depression.

Most college football fans are tired of reading about the changes in the sport that have made it mostly about money. The games themselves are the only refuge from all that distraction. Even that experience has become more challenging. Ticket prices have risen through the roof, even for opponents in whom most Irish fans have little interest. Televised games on any network have become four hour commercial fests interspersed with occasional football plays. There is nonstop talk yet precious little insight from any network announcing team (one year with Tony Dungy was simply not enough). Notre Dame can help its fanbase get past all that with a strong season. The 2023 team has enough talent to make it so.

Tell John what you think in the Comments section below

26 thoughts on “Irish 2023 Outlook

  1. Hi. You reported that Zac Yoakam appears in line to take on the kicking chores this season. What I read may already be outdated info, but I believe Biagi was quoted that Spencer Shrader would be the kicker (kick-offs and place-kicker / field goal specialist). https://www.si.com/college/notredame/football/notre-dame-football-special-teams-are-taking-shape-stires and https://247sports.com/college/notre-dame/article/notre-dame-special-teams-begin-to-take-shape-214106236/

    • MS Word filters did not flag this usage – I believe it’s generally acceptable even if not technically perfect. You’re worse than Andy.

  2. Vannie, thanks for the great info. I don’t see an Irish team that will be much different from what we have seen in the past 15 years. There are too many weaknesses in quality and depth. I expect another dogfight with Navy. In fact an upset wouldn’t surprise me.

    • I have the very same concerns, and believe there are good reasons for those, both coaching and playing. Eternally optimistic, but all-too-often disappointed post-Holtz.

  3. Jake in Cali says:

    JVAN,

    Great article, as always! I look forward to your column the next 12 weeks.

    And yes, the NAVY OLINE is their strength and if Golden doesn’t have them ready, it’s going to be a long day for the D…

    I think we’re looking at an 8-4 season.. HOPE I’m wrong!

    I can’t wait for the NAVY week to be over…LOL

  4. Hello Mr Vannie,

    Hope you had a nice summer! I am looking so forward to ND Football on Aug 26 vs Navy!! I feel with the time ND had preparing for the Triple Option will result in a comfortable win for the Irish. Just like in 2012 when they played Navy in the first game of the season.

    John, do you think it’s possible that Navy could be ND’s first game in the years to come? By the way great write-up on this year’s team!

    Go Irish beat Midshipman!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  5. What’s with all the doom and gloom?! The season is about to start and I’m all pumped up for it! Everything I’m hearing from camp has been positive and that we have more depth than ever. That’s something that should serve us well as the season progresses.

    With Hartman at QB, solid OL, terrific RB’s and some young but talented WR’s I think we will score points. A lot of them. I’m not worried about Parker. I had major issues with Tommy Reese and some of his game plans. He as hot and cold and I think that came from a lack of overall experience. I actually think Parker has been around and I expect him to get the ball to his play makers. I’m not worried about Parker.

    I think Al Golden has a better feel for personnel and has shut down corners he can count on. The floor is 8-4 and that would be a disaster. I see this team taking care of business this year against the teams they are supposed to and maybe beat one or two of the Big 3 on the schedule. 11-1? 10-2?

    All this time to get ready Navy? I think we handle the early jitters and blow them out in the second half: ND 45- Navy 17.

    Go Irish!!!!

    • One HIstorian says:

      Jimmy P;

      To quote you – “The season is about to start and I’m all pumped up for it!”

      I couldn’t agree more!! Starting this Saturday – Every week up here in the boonies there will be goodies at hand for munchies during the game. In addition – the brewskies will be COLD, so the way is clear to the little boys room when nature calls, which she does frequently on Saturday afternoons and nights, AND – I have another advantage for these times – I can just step outside and take care of business because I live out in the wilds and can step outside for a moment or two unseen by anyone – except the dog.

      If this missive passes inspection and makes the grade I will be pleasantly surprised.

      • And according to some reports the freshman QB Lonergan is nipping at Buchner’s heels so I see Buchner transferring out after this season if he doesn’t solidify his place on the depth chart.

        • Buchner provided a great win in the bowl game for ND. But he is what he is and that’s a backup quarterback at the power 5 level. Did anyone really think he would start at Alabama?

    • The epitome of a Kelly-recruited starter, where the better quarterback(s) stay on the bench. Now that he IS on the bench, maybe his function is to help the other Tide qb’s understand Reese.

  6. Notre Dame must go 1-2 vs. tOSU, USC and Clemson at a minimum with one of those two losses within one touchdown. But preferably they should go 2-1. If they go 0-3 then the program is going the wrong direction no matter what the ND spin doctors claim or excuses they serve up. The floor must be 9-3 and the ceiling is probably 11-1.

    I also have concerns about Gerad Parker and his ability to play chess with the better defensive coordinators and get creative. He has virtually no body of work as an offensive coordinator and what little there is isn’t very impressive but perhaps he will pleasantly surprise as Barry Alvarez did in 1988. I don’t know whether Swarbucks botched the deal with Ludwig or not. It seemed to me that Ludwig got cold feet anyway and that Whittingham talked him out of it when he arrived back in Utah.

    If ND finishes 8-4 then I see problems with the Freeman regime. Super fans and ND spin doctors will say that Freeman just needs “his guys” to matriculate through the program and that Kelly left a talent deficit but they tried saying that with Davie, Willingham and Weis and things only got worse.

    If Hartman gets injured early in the year then we’re looking at a 6-6 season.

      • Only those proposing a Vatican-level conspiracy while wearing deeply golden-tinted granny glasses, can possibly doubt that Swarby was at the root of the Ludwig hiring failure.

  7. One Historian says:

    We HAVE to beat Ohio State to be taken seriously. The last time that happened the winning TD was scored by William “Bill” Shakespeare – enough is enough.

    The way you get to be taken seriously is simple – you beat someone you’re really NOT supposed to beat and you beat ’em good – not an ‘upset’ but simply – the better team won.

    The jury is still out on Freeman and he knows it – I’m not criticizing but that’s the way it is. I think he’ll do fine.

    ND – 24 – 14.

    Prediction – 11-1, 10-2 at worst.

  8. John, I always appreciate your writeups. But when you say this defensive line lacks elite size, what the heck are you talking about? We have never had this deep or big of a defensive line. Rylie Mills, Jason Onye and Gabriel Rubio are all over 300#. So is Aiden K. And they are not just big. They are all very athletic. When is the last time we could put that type of size on the field at defensive line? What am I missing here?

    • None of the top three guys you named is 300 pounds, regardless of what the press guide says. None of them are exceptional for their size. In other words, no Aaron Donalds in this group. The rest of the two deep is pretty small. Aiden K is not on the two deep and probably won’t play except possibly in goal line or mop up duty. The elite teams have multiple players from 325-340 and better pure talent. Good teams will run on ND this year, just as they did last year. Fortunately they don’t play too many of them.

  9. One Historian says:

    This is a good way to start the season – Navy is the only team that utilizes the triple option, so – get it out of the way, to be blunt, and that’s it until next season.

    Irish 35-10. Hartman throws for 298 yards, 3 TD passes, Greathouse lights up the place.

  10. ED CHRISTOPHER ND '67 says:

    First quarter, Estime takes it to the House from 50 yards.
    Fourth quarter Love takes it to the House from 70 yards.
    Morrison only one INT.
    ND 45 NAVY 10

  11. IRISH COFFEE says:

    IMO, the lack of WR production in 2022 was more a function of QB execution than of receiver shortcomings. I also think they blocked pretty well, which doesn’t make the stat sheets.

    • That’s a fair point but the receivers were also less than stellar. Colzie ran poor routes and Styles dropped more passes than he caught. Lenzy did not have a good season until performing very well in the bowl game.