Notre Dame and Georgia face off on New Years Night at the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans. This playoff quarterfinal game is the last of four to be played at the traditional major bowl sites. The winner earns a berth in the national semifinals on January 9th in Miami. ESPN will televise the game beginning at 8:45 PM Eastern time. It will follow ESPN’s coverage of the Rose Bowl starting at 5:00 PM.

These schools played in 2017 and 2019 with the Dawgs winning in tight, low-scoring contests. Much the same is expected on Wednesday as both defenses have dominated most of their opponents. Both units are fast and physical, although Georgia boasts greater size and depth up front.

Injuries have hampered the Fighting Irish all season, especially in terms of offensive and defensive linemen. The latest to fall is tackle Riley Mills. He went down against Indiana with a knee injury and is done for the year. Other injured players include guard Rocco Spindler, who should be ready to start this game. Linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa has been limited at practice and is not expected to see action. Offensive lineman Charles Jagusah missed the regular season due to a torn pectoral muscle. He has resumed practicing with the team but is not likely to play unless an emergency arises.

Georgia’s most significant loss is at quarterback. Starter Carson Beck suffered an elbow injury in the SEC title game and underwent surgery. Backup Gunnar Stockton, a redshirt sophomore, will get his first collegiate start. Defensively, the Dawgs are returning to health after several players missed time. The exception is end Christen Miller, who remains out of the lineup.

Coach Kirby Smart has won consecutive national championships at Georgia. These followed the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Expectations have risen such that this year’s 11-2 record is considered to be a down season. Smart was complimentary of Notre Dame’s style of play this season after watching plenty of film. Reporters asked if the Irish resembled an SEC team.

“Notre Dame is built that way. They’re built that way on paper. But then what you see on the tape speaks louder than the paper does. You see how they play. You see the toughness they play with. The linebackers are downhill, thumping. The backs are elite. They’re built like an SEC team. And I say that as a huge compliment, because I think those rosters are some of the most talented in the country. And Notre Dame is built that way, probably more on the side of physicality.”

Meanwhile, Irish Coach Marcus Freeman wants his squad to play fast and aggressive football. He spoke on Monday to the media and was asked about his teams preparation.

“I told them yesterday, if you wait until you know to make a decision, it’s going to be too late, and you’re not playing with much velocity then. And so we’ve got to continue to prepare in these last 48 hours to gain as much clarity as we can. And listen, when the ball snaps, let’s go play with velocity, man. Go play with speed, go play to make plays, and win this play. I know that’s coaching talk, but win this play. Win this play with velocity on Wednesday.”

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. GEORGIA’S DEFENSE

Georgia typically runs a 3-4 alignment on running downs and 4-2-5 in passing situations. The front seven is powerful and athletic. Interior linemen Nazir Stackhouse and Warren Brinson are future NFL regulars. End Mykal Williams was a one-man wrecking crew against Texas three weeks ago. The Irish line will have a difficult time moving them and keeping Leonard safe.

The Dawg linebackers are fast and furious. They are plus athletes who can blitz, cover in space, and stuff the run. Outside backers Jalon Walker and pass rush specialist Chaz Chambliss lead the team in sacks. Walker won the Butkus Award this season and may be their best overall player. Middle linebacker CJ Allen and Smael Mondon tackle anything that moves in the running game. This defense has an amazing 231 quarterback pressures and 71 tackles for loss.

Nickel back Malachi Starks is the most dynamic player in the secondary. He leads Georgia in tackles and is better against the run than in coverage. Daylen Everette is a quality cornerback while freshman free safety KJ Bolden had an outstanding season. The Irish will likely attack sophomore corner Daniel Harris and strong safety Dan Jackson through the air.

It will be difficult for Notre Dame to run inside. Jeremiyah love and Jadarian Price typically earn a lot of yards after contact. They will need to do more of this on Wednesday. The Dawgs are also fast enough to swarm against passes to the outside flat. That leaves quick hitters off tackle or designed draws and runs by Leonard. Other teams have achieved some success with this or a similar approach. In any event, the Irish must gain positive yards on first and second down. Georgia feasts on teams in third and long situations.

GEORGIA’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Georgia’s offensive line is strongest up the middle. Center Jared Wilson and guards Tate Ratledge and Dylan Fairchild open running lanes and protect the passer well. The Dawgs are more vulnerable on the edges, where sophomore Monroe Freeling replaced underachieving veteran left tackle Earnest Greene. Massive right tackle Xavier Truss has also been an inconsistent performer.

Running backs Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier provide a solid one-two punch. Etienne is finally healthy and had a strong outing in the SEC Championship. He is a difference-maker who always finds extra yards.

Despite the capable supporting cast, Stockton is the key to success for Georgia. He has been in the program for three seasons so he understands the offense. Notre Dame’s job will be to give Stockton baffling defensive looks and make him uncomfortable. While the Irish are unlikely to record numerous sacks, they can bring pressure and bait him into mistakes.

Dominic Lovett, Arian Smith, and Dillon Bell are the primary wide receivers. Smith is the most dangerous deep threat but has struggled with dropped passes. These three are above average players but not on the same level as USC’s group. Georgia will try to defeat the Irish man coverage by running their wideouts across the middle on rub routes. This will allow Stockton to hit short tosses without stress or the need to make a complicated read.

Stockton’s coaches will build his confidence by initially keeping things short and sweet in the passing game. As the game goes on, they may turn him loose as the situation dictates. To facilitate a successful start, Stockton has a trio of talented tight ends at his disposal. Ben Yurosek (formerly at Stanford), Oscar Delp, and Lawson Luckie are capable. Georgia uses at least two of them at a time quite often. Etienne is also a frequent target out of the backfield for the Dawgs. Look for Stockton to find him as a safety valve or on screens.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker Mitch Jeter calmed Irish fans against Indiana with a 49-yard effort. He later misfired on another field goal attempt when he hit a low line drive that was blocked. Points will be precious in this game so Jeter will need to make everything under 50 yards. Georgia Kicker Peyton Woodring has been automatic (20 for 20) in that range all season. His longest is 55 yards.

Irish punter James Rendell will get his second opportunity to kick in a domed stadium. His first occurred against Georgia Tech in Atlanta, where he hit a 51-yard bomb and a 24-yard shank. Brett Thorson, arguably the nation’s best punter, is injured and will not play for the Dawgs. As you might expect, Georgia has last year’s top high school recruit, Drew Miller, ready to go.

Kickoff and punt returns for both schools have not produced much excitement in 2024. Reserve wideout Anthony Evans handles both chores for Georgia. Max Hurleman returns punts for the Irish while Jayden Harrison is the primary kick returner. Notre Dame blocked three punts against none for the Dawgs. The Irish have also executed multiple well-designed fakes.

SUMMARY

Georgia’s defense is mostly healthy now and has no obvious weaknesses. Notre Dame must not give up on the running game, even if it is tough sledding early. Leonard needs to get the ball out quickly and accurately when he passes. He must also avoid the tendency to be jittery in the pocket where his throwing mechanics break down. The Dawgs rely on pressure and they can deliver large doses of it.

Notre Dame is also very adept at bringing pressure but they rarely do that well with four rushers. There are risks involved in sending extra blitzers. Both teams do it frequently though, and the quarterback who reacts best will give his team an edge. The defense that creates scoring opportunities for its offense will have an easier path to victory. Those negative plays and turnovers are more likely to occur on third and long situations. Whichever squad is most successful on the ground is more likely to win.

Here’s a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Can Notre Dame establish Love and Price in the running game?
• Will the injury-plagued and undersized Irish defensive front get steamrolled by the Dawgs?
• Which quarterback will make the most of his running ability?
• Will the Irish secondary be able to contain the Dawg tight end trio?
• Can the Irish receivers gain separation against the Georgia secondary?
• Will Notre Dame’s multiple blitzes and coverages cause Stockton to make mistakes?
• Can Mitch Jeter match the consistency and range of Peyton Woodring?
• Will Georgia’s blue chip talent play up to their potential?

PREDICTION

Two opposing factors are in play. First, Georgia appears to be superior in the trenches. This is normally sufficient to secure a victory. Conversely, the Irish start a seasoned veteran at quarterback while the Dawgs are putting an unproven commodity behind center. The stakes are win or youris season is over – certainly a high-pressure environment.  Which of these factors will be decisive?

We expect the battle to be close throughout and low scoring overall. Momentum altering plays by the defenses or special teams could tip the scales one way or the other. On balance, though, these offenses will not have an easy time of it. Field position is critical. Notre Dame’s chances lie with Leonard’s running prowess and its defensive back seven led by Xavier Watts. Will that be enough against a powerhouse program with a knack for playing their best in these moments?

At this point I have reduced this prediction to two even more basic considerations. Should I listen to my head or my heart? I am going with my heart.

NOTRE DAME 20  GEORGIA 17