Notre Dame travels to Boston College on Saturday evening for a game pitting two 5-3 teams badly in need of a victory. The Irish are coming off a devastating overtime loss to Pittsburgh, while the Eagles have dropped consecutive ACC contests to North Carolina and Clemson. The history between these schools and the importance of the outcome for both teams ensures that the intensity and emotional level will be high.

Injuries are usually a factor at this stage of the season, and both coaches have reason for concern. Jimmy Clausen limped through practice this week and right guard Chris Stewart has been placed on the shelf for a few weeks. Left guard Eric Olson is still gimpy following the Washington game and David Grimes’s back is not yet 100%. Also, the production of tight end Kyle Rudolph has fallen off lately, which may be due at least in part to an undisclosed injury.

Boston College has its own health problems, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Star linebacker Brian Toal was lost for the season recently, and a number of others are nursing various ailments. This unit has been the strength of the team this season, but has showed signs of cracking in its last two outings.

The lone common opponent is North Carolina, who hosted each team last month. The Tar Heels beat Notre Dame 29-24 in a game that went down to the wire, and swamped Boston College 45-24 after spotting the Eagles an early 10-0 advantage.

Notre Dame’s Offense vs. Boston College’s Defense

Since Clausen’s mobility may be an issue this week, the Irish must prevent BC’s mammoth defensive tackles, B.J. Raji and Ron Brace, from collapsing the pocket and wreaking general havoc. Raji actually leads the defense in sacks from his interior position and will require double teams on most plays. Notre Dame’s receivers should be able to get open against a very average secondary, but the Eagles have been able to rely on good pressure up front and linebackers that know how to drop and cover their zones.

Toal’s absence hurts BC’s chances, but strong side linebacker Matt Herzlich may be a more dominant player. He leads the team in tackles by a wide margin and is tied for the lead in interceptions with three. The entire front seven is well above average, as evidenced by the fact that fellow the other two linebackers, Mike McLaughlin and Robert Francois (who replaced Toal), led the team with seven tackles and an interception apiece against Clemson.

Senior cornerback Kevin Akins is the team’s best cover man, while strong safety Paul Anderson has three interceptions of his own. Notre Dame would do well to run the ball outside but away from Herzlich’s side, and move the pocket on passing downs to keep Raji from landing his 325 pounds in Clausen’s lap. Boston College has allowed just over 100 rushing yards and only 275 total yards per game thus far, which places them in the top 10 nationally.

The Irish will need to convert their scoring opportunities and come away with touchdowns rather than field goals. This will be a difficult task because the Eagles allow opponents to score a touchdown only 42% of the time once they enter the red zone.

Boston College’s Offense vs. Notre Dame’s Defense

Senior Chris Crane shed his role as Matt Ryan’s backup this season and has taken over the reins of Coach John Jagodzinski’s offense. Crane’s performances have been somewhat inconsistent to date. He has a 56% completion percentage but has thrown 12 interceptions against only eight touchdown passes. The Eagles are most successful when the running game is working and Crane does not have to bear a significant share of the load.

The main weapons at wide receiver are senior Brandon Robinson and junior Rich Gunnell. Both are less than six feet tall. Justin Jarvis, a 6’5” reserve, is often used near the goal line. Another part time player, Clarence Megwa, suffered a broken leg last week and is gone for the season. Robinson is the leading receiver with just 27 receptions and the team’s only real deep threat. Crane does not target his tight end very often, as senior Ryan Purvis averages only two catches per game for short yardage.

Boston College has essentially run a tailback by committee this season. Josh Haden, a 5’8” freshman, has emerged of late and will start. He backup is fellow frosh Montel Harris, who stands 5’10” in his high tops. The pair has combined to average 100 yards per game and has scored 16 touchdowns, 12 by Haden. Both have good but not exceptional speed.

The Eagles offensive line is somewhat rebuilt this season, but they have yielded only ten sacks while leading a productive ground attack for 150 yards per game. Center Matt Tennant and left guard Cliff Ramsey are the veteran anchors while sophomore left tackle Anthony Castonzo may be a future star. Notre Dame may not be successful against this group with a blitz-happy strategy, but they need to force Crane into third and long situations. The Eagles prefer safe, short passes since their personnel is less suited to throwing the ball downfield.

Special Teams

While strong-legged kicker Brandon Walker is starting to come around for the Irish in terms of accuracy, Boston College has had problems lately. Regular kicker Steve Aponavicius has limited range on field goals and does not get his kickoffs very deep. The latter job was once held by Bill Bennett, who has recently been dismissed from the team.

The Irish continue to underachieve on kickoff and punt returns, but there is an opportunity for a big play this week when Aponavicius kicks off. Boston College counters with Gunnell on punt returns and Jeff Smith or Harris on kickoffs. Gunnell has been the very productive, averaging 13 yards per try with one touchdown.

Summary

A review of the comparative statistics and consideration of the intangibles yields no clear favorite. Both offenses are capable of scoring points but have experienced frustrating dry spells. Each defense can get stops and interceptions, but Notre Dame has suffered more costly second half breakdowns and does not pressure the quarterback as well. One advantage for Notre Dame is in the size of its skill position players relative to BC on both sides of the ball.

The successful team will be the one that plays more consistently and at a high level for 60 minutes. Injuries and fatigue enter into the equation, but there are no excuses in a game between two rivals that do not particularly like each other. The offensive line is once again the key to victory for the Irish. Clausen must have time in the pocket and he needs to be able to turn down the heat with a respectable running game.

Here are a few questions that will help determine the outcome:

Can Notre Dame stop the run and put the game into Crane’s hands?
Will the Irish be able to contain Raji and Brace?
Will Clausen be able to throw the ball effectively and with the usual zip?
Which kicker will give his team a lift?
Will the Irish offense bog down in the third quarter?
Will the Irish defense run out of gas in the fourth quarter?
Can Notre Dame force third and long situations and put pressure on the passer?

Prediction

Boston College is quite similar to Stanford or Pittsburgh in terms of overall talent. The game will be close and hard fought, with the winner undetermined until the final minutes. Opponents have managed to make the necessary plays to defeat the Irish this season in similar circumstances, and six consecutive wins by the Eagles in this series leads me to believe that they may want it just a bit more when the outcome hangs in the balance this week.

Boston College 24 Notre Dame 20