Third-ranked Notre Dame (7-0) embarks on the first leg of the marathon second half of the season on Saturday as the Fighting Irish battle Navy in San Diego, California. In pursuit of a berth in the college football playoff, Brian Kelly’s team has only one remaining game on campus with upcoming trips to Chicago, New York and Los Angeles. The Midshipmen have struggled this season as compared to recent history under Coach Ken Niumatalolo, standing at 2-5 after a second half collapse against Houston last week. The game will be broadcast nationally by CBS, starting at 8:00 pm Eastern time.

Navy’s uncharacteristic record is the product of poor defensive performances, particularly in the second half of games, and an offense beset by injuries. Most of the walking wounded are getting healthy now and the team that will face Notre Dame promises to bring the fight in its traditional, ultra-competitive way. The triple option is the staple of the Midshipmen attack, and there is plenty of experience on hand to make it work. Navy is once again averaging more than 300 yards on the ground, and Coach Kelly is very much aware of their ability to control the clock and shorten the game.

“They’re extremely efficient,” he said. “They’ve given us all that we can handle year in and year out. There has to be an incredible sense of urgency on the offensive side of the ball by maximizing possessions, quite frankly every snap, because you just don’t know how many possessions that you will, in fact, get. Scoring points is absolutely crucial.”

One noteworthy item is that Navy senior left tackle Adam Amosa-Tagovailoa and Notre Dame sophomore defensive lineman Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa are brothers despite the fact their last names are flipped. The names reflect a family decision to honor both the parents and grandparents. In addition, their cousin Tua Tagovailoa is the starting quarterback at Alabama and a leading Heisman Trophy candidate.

Despite the rest gained during the bye week, the Irish are still impacted by injuries. Depth chart changes along the offensive line have been made at guard, where Aaron Banks will start on the left side in place of Alex Bars, and the solution on the right will be a tag team effort between Tommy Kraemer and Jeff Ruhland. Kraemer, the incumbent starter, has been nursing a leg injury and is unlikely to play a full game. The healthiest remaining starters are center Sam Mustipher and left tackle Liam Eichenberg, while right tackle Robert Hainsey has been battling a leg injury since fall camp in August.

At running back, Jafar Armstrong is ready to return to limited duty after missing a month with a knee injury. Sidekick Tony Jones, Jr. is also available and close to full strength. Defensively, ends Daelin Hayes and Khalid Kareem are healthy enough to play, and cornerback Troy Pride, Jr. will start after sitting out the Pitt game.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. NAVY’S DEFENSE

Quarterback Ian Book’s strong second half was the difference in the comeback victory over Pitt. The junior was forced to carry the load when injuries continued to hamper the offensive line and essentially halted the ground game. Kelly hopes the reinforcements up front and at running back will result in a more balanced attack this week. The Irish must avoid the nightmare scenario seen in previous Navy games where the offense quickly goes three and out while the Midshipmen respond with an eight-minute scoring drive.

Navy employs a 3-4 alignment anchored by junior nose tackle Jackson Pittman. He is flanked by senior ends Josh Webb and Jarvis Polu, and this trio has the size and athletic ability that a service academy defense historically has lacked. Senior inside linebackers Hudson Sullivan and Taylor Heflin lead the team in tackles, while Nizaire Cromartie is their most dangerous pass rusher from the outside. This front has held opponents to a respectable 166 rushing yards per game.

The weakness in this defense has been its failure to stop the pass. Opponents have completed 66% of their throws and converted nearly half of their third or fourth down plays. The best players in the secondary are senior cornerback Jarid Ryan and safety Sean Williams The other corner and safety spots have been a revolving door. Niumatalolo has tried three players at corner opposite Ryan, and is currently going with 5’9” 165-pound freshman Michael McMorris. At safety, Jacob Springer is also the third player to start alongside Williams.

The Irish need to get off to a good start in this game by establishing the run and mixing in high percentage throws by Book. Productive possessions that take time off the clock will thwart Navy’s plan to control the flow of the game. If Notre Dame can establish an early lead, the Midshipmen will ultimately be forced to alter their plan. Statistics also show their defense has been even more vulnerable in the second half.

NAVY’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

There is no secret to Navy’s option offense other than the precision in its execution. Garrett Lewis has taken over as the starter at quarterback in the past two weeks as Zach Abey moved to wide receiver. Lewis is a better passer and a slightly quicker athlete. Nelson Smith is relatively small for the fullback position, but he starts ahead of Anthony Gargiulo, who is five inches taller and 27 pounds heavier.

Navy always has speedy slotbacks that can gash a defense if allowed to turn the corner on the pitch play. Malcolm Perry is the primary threat this season. He is the team’s leading rusher, while Tre Walker and CJ Williams are other productive options now that both are returning to health. Williams is the best receiver out of the backfield, as evidenced by his 25 yards per catch average.
Lewis can throw the ball reasonably well when called upon. He has completed 48% of his passes and has two very tall targets at wide receiver in 6’3” senior Taylor Jackson and 6’5” freshman Mychal Cooper, with Abey now part of the rotation. Jackson leads the team with 11 catches and sports an 18-yard average.

The battle in the trenches will determine whether the Midshipmen are able to stay with Notre Dame on the scoreboard. Navy’s line features four seniors flanking junior center Ford Higgins. Amosa-Tagovailoa ascended to the starting left tackle position last week when incumbent Jake Hawk and backup Kendel Wright went down with injuries.

Jerry Tillery has a significant size advantage in the middle for the Irish, but the rest of the troops must maintain discipline and control the edges of the defense in order to get the Navy attack off the field. First down yardage is always the key in this game. Gains of five plus yards usually give rise to long drives where the Midshipmen seem to be running downhill. Niumatalolo is also predisposed to gamble on fourth down and short yardage, and he is successful most of the time. Once they enter the red zone, Navy is a perfect 23 for 23 this season, with 19 touchdowns.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Two concerns arose during the Pittsburgh game regarding Notre Dame’s special teams. Kicker Justin Yoon suffered a mild groin strain, but reportedly has recovered after the extra week off. He will focus on field goals and extra points while Jonathan Doerer will handle kickoffs. The Irish coverage team caused considerable alarm by surrendering a long kickoff return for touchdown, although Kelly inexplicably shifted blame to Doerer for not booming the ball through the end zone.

Jacob Springer is the primary kick and punt return man for Navy. He has enjoyed more success with punts, while the kickoff return team has not been very productive. The Midshipmen also tend to allow excess yardage on kickoff and punt returns, so the Irish will have a chance to capitalize in this area.

Bennett Moehring is Navy’s capable place kicker, having converted all field goal attempts under 50 yards and all extra points. Punter Owen White sports a 41-yard average, but more than half of his punts are returned for plus yardage.

SUMMARY

Notre Dame is hoping to survive this contest while attempting to rest injured starters to the maximum extent possible. The bye week should give Notre Dame the energy to start fast and assert dominance over the Midshipmen. A sluggish start will be a bad sign and could portend another close contest that comes down to the last series. The Irish can ill afford this type of outcome if they hope to survive the brutal travel schedule and the highly motivated upcoming opponents.

Players to watch for the Irish are safety Alohi Gilman, a transfer from Navy, defensive ends Hayes and Kareem, and the entire offensive line. Their health and performance level will determine whether the Irish win comfortably or find themselves in another dogfight.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Can the Irish defense hold containment on the edges to stop the pitch play?

Will Notre Dame’s patchwork offensive line get the running game back on track?

Can the Irish get off to a fast start and play the game with the lead?

Will Navy have any trick plays in its arsenal to surprise the Irish?

Can Notre Dame’s special teams finally dominate in this phase of the game?

Will the Irish defenders stay healthy while battling Navy’s aggressive blocking schemes?

Will Notre Dame decide to move its campus to San Diego after a weekend in paradise?

PREDICTION

This is not a particularly imposing Navy team, but their style and grit usually lead to a closer game than a paper comparison of the rosters would indicate. Kelly has spent more practice time in recent years on defending the triple option, but a live game always requires a degree of adjustment for the players. Although the Midshipmen will undoubtedly have a few shining moments to please the San Diego crowd, the Irish simply have too much power and athleticism for Navy to harbor any hopes of an upset.

NOTRE DAME 38 NAVY 20