Notre Dame resumes it march through the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) on Friday afternoon as the Fighting Irish take on high-scoring North Carolina. While the explosive Tar Heels have been lighting up scoreboards against the lesser teams in the league, Notre Dame sits in the pole position in the ACC standings as the only undefeated squad. This matchup looms as the toughest for the Irish among its remaining three regular season games. The ABC network will provide national television coverage beginning at 3:30 PM Eastern time.

Both teams were idle last Saturday after playing several consecutive games under the shadow of COVID-19. Normally, a bye week would suggest a well-rested and healthy roster, but Notre Dame has encountered a couple of devastating setbacks since it last took the field at Boston College. Starting offensive guard Tommy Kraemer had an appendectomy earlier this week, and we learned that center Jarrett Patterson suffered a season-ending broken foot against the Eagles. Also, two of the top three Irish running backs are battling ankle injuries but should play.

Head Coach Mack Brown, who came out of retirement in 2019 for a second stint in Chapel Hill, leads the hosts. Brown’s balanced offense has put up some incredible statistics while compiling a 6-2 record. Sophomore quarterback Sam Howell has completed 68% of his passes, including 23 touchdowns and 329 yards per game. The ground game is equally impressive with two backs averaging more than 100 yards per outing. Carolina’s attack has accounted for an amazing 563 yards per game.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame signal-caller Ian Book has turned in a pair of excellent performances this month. The Irish offense has been firing on all cylinders with an improved downfield passing game and hard running by Kyren Williams, Chris Tyree and C’Bo Flemister. The loss of two starting linemen may be tough to overcome, however, if Notre Dame finds itself in a shootout with the Tar Heels and tries to play keep-away.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. NORTH CAROLINA’S DEFENSE

Oddly, both teams have rushed for exactly 1868 net yards in eight games for a 233.5 yard average. The Tar Heels hold a 100-yard per game advantage in the passing game. The Irish receivers are not as explosive as Carolina, whose pass catchers have generated many more long plays. If Notre Dame is going to win, it must outrush the Heels by a wide margin and control the clock.

Book must also have another strong outing. His designed runs and scrambles have made a measurable difference by creating positive plays where there would otherwise be no ground to gain. Wideouts Javon McKinley and Ben Skowronek have been reliable as has tight end Michael Mayer, but the emergence of Avery Davis in the slot position has given the passing attack another dimension.

The team is also anticipating the return of speedster Braden Lenzy, but Coach Brian Kelly doesn’t yet know if he’ll be ready. “He’s going to move from what we considered modified work … to 11-on-11 work this week, which is 1-on-1 against our defense,” Kelly said. “That is really the next step toward 100% being cleared to go. “We’ll see how he works through that.”

The Tar Heel defense has given up 120 more yards per game than the Irish. They line up in a 3-4 base set, and outside linebacker Tomon Fox steps up in passing situations as the fourth rusher. He flanks his younger brother Tomari, the strong side end. Middle linebacker Chazz Surratt is the leading tackler and is the cornerstone of a group that has above average size and range. Still, they have given up more than 150 rushing yards per game against weak competition.

North Carolina’s secondary has been even more problematic. Brown starts four sophomores with a junior at nickel back. Safeties Cam’Ron Kelly and Don Chapman are better against the run than the pass. Book can attack this group with success, but will have an easier time of it if the ground game is working in parallel.

NORTH CAROLINA’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Howell has an enviable collection of targets through the air. Led by Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome, eight receivers have caught passes for 30 yards or more. The group is fast and deadly, while Howell’s accuracy is superb. Tight end Garrett Walston and running backs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter are also very productive in the passing game. There is simply no way the Irish secondary can focus on just one or two of these options.

The only way Notre Dame can slow down Howell and the 100-yard per game running of Williams and Carter is to win the majority of individual matchups in the trenches. The Irish must be able to pressure Howell with four pass rushers. Tackling must also improve from the level we witnessed in the past two games. Wholesale blitzing is likely to backfire if it too often leaves the cornerbacks in single coverage against this receiving corps. In short, Notre Dame’s defense needs to play at or near its best to win.

The Tar Heels start two sophomores on the left side of the offensive line and two massive juniors on the right. Junior center Brian Anderson is the anchor. This unit has paved the way for a strong ground game while allowing 22 sacks. Howell does not compare to Book as a runner or scrambler, but he does a better job of finding and hitting open receivers downfield. He also executes the run/pass option to near perfection. This is the fundamental component of the Tar Heel offense and will require outstanding discipline by the Irish to stop.

Coach Brown knows his team will have to run the ball well against the tough Irish front. When asked about the challenge, he replied, “It’s a huge challenge for our guys again and the two games that we’ve lost, we didn’t run the ball very well. It’s the only two games this year that we have not beaten the other team in rushing yards”. Finishing the thought, Brown added, “So, they’re obviously going to look at those two games and try to make us throw it, and then you’ve got to run it well enough to protect.”

SPECIAL TEAMS

North Carolina has put up impressive statistics in the kicking game. They have kicked off over 60 times this season, yet only four have been returned for an average of 20 yards. Punter Ben Kiernan averages 42 yards per attempt and has not launched a single boot into the end zone for a touchback. Kicker Grayson Atkins is just seven for 12 in the field goal department. His accuracy becomes shaky outside of 40 yards. Despite the wealth of speed on the roster, the Tar Heels haven’t done anything noteworthy while returning punts (Newsome) or kickoffs (Carter).

Punter Jay Bramblett and kicker Jonathan Doerer have been consistent throughout the season for the Irish. Doerer was just short with a 57-yard field goal attempt but is otherwise 12 of 15. Bramblett averages over 41 yards and is also adept at keeping the ball out of the end zone. Opponents have returned more than half of Notre Dame’s 55 kickoffs, but the coverage team has been exemplary. The Irish will do well to win the battle of field position in this contest. They should also anticipate a gadget play by Carolina given the importance of this game to their program and the extra week of preparation.

SUMMARY

Notre Dame’s defense carried the team in the first half of the season, but the offense was largely responsible for recent wins over Clemson and BC. Against North Carolina, the Irish defense will have to reestablish itself as a dominant unit. This is a tall order against the potent Tar Heels. The Irish must hope the week off will provide the energy to generate a consistent pass rush against Howell, who can put a defense on roller skates if allowed to get into a rhythm.

The team that runs the ball best gains a decided advantage. Notre Dame will have to overcome injuries to achieve this objective, but quality reserve linemen such as Josh Lugg and Zeke Correll should hold up well enough. The formula for an Irish victory is to take the lead early and limit the Tar Heels to around 60 plays and 25 minutes of possession. Virginia used this roadmap and just managed to escape by 44-41. Florida State scored all 31 of its points in the first half and barely held off a furious comeback by Howell.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Will injuries hamper the Irish running game and keep them from controlling the clock?

• Which team will make crucial mistakes or turnovers?

• Will Notre Dame’s front four be able to disrupt Howell?

• Which offense will be able to remain balanced throughout the contest?

• Can the Irish secondary tighten up and prevent long completions?

• Will Notre Dame win the first and fourth quarters?

• Which special teams will make a difference-making contribution?

• Can Michigan and Penn State play to a draw and then commit seppuku?

PREDICTION

One year ago, playoff hopeful Notre Dame took a short trip to Ann Arbor after a bye week and were summarily run out of town by a mediocre Michigan team. Obviously, Kelly must do a better job this week to prepare his squad for a dangerous opponent. A win would give Brown a significant boost in his quest to build North Carolina into a national power in just his second season. Neither team can afford a slow start, but the Tar Heels are well-equipped to stage a comeback if Notre Dame cannot sustain the pressure on Howell. Although I have nightmare visions of Carolina receivers running past Irish cornerbacks as Clemson’s Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell did three weeks ago, I still believe Notre Dame’s power will prevail over Carolina’s finesse.

NOTRE DAME 41  NORTH CAROLINA 31

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