Notre Dame (13-1) battles Penn State (13-2) on Thursday, January 9^th at the Orange Bowl in Miami, Florida. The winner will earn a berth in the college football National Championship Game on January 20 in Atlanta. This playoff semifinal game is a matchup of regional powers that have not faced each other since 2007. Each team has won nine times in the overall series between these schools, with one tie. ESPN will televise the game beginning at 7:30 PM Eastern time. Texas and Ohio State are matched in the other semifinal on Friday, January 10 in Dallas.

The Fighting Irish have vanquished Indiana and Georgia to date while the Nittany Lions boast playoff wins over SMU and Boise State. During the regular season, both teams played at Purdue and against USC in Los Angeles. Each squad dispatched the Boilermakers by a lopsided margin. Penn State prevailed over the Trojans by 33-30 in overtime while Notre Dame won by 14 points.

Strong defenses and a solid running game are the main similarities between them. Both defenses rank in the top ten nationally in multiple key categories. Each team runs the ball approximately twice as much as they throw it. Penn State boasts a talented pair of tailbacks in Nicolas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Notre Dame counters with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Quarterback Riley Leonard has been a far more effective rusher for the Irish than his Lion counterpart Drew Allar.

Injuries continue to hamper Notre Dame. Love had to leave the game against Georgia after taking a hit on his sore right knee. He remains questionable at this time but is expected to give it a try. Fortunately, the rest of the team is intact from the group that played last week. Guard Rocco Spindler, linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa and offensive lineman Charles Jagusah competed against Georgia and are available on Thursday. Other injured players who were previously lost for the season are not expected back for this game.

Penn State has fewer injury issues overall but its best defender, Abdul Carter, went down against Boise State. His status remains a closely guarded secret by the Nittany Lion staff. Like Notre Dame, the Lions have overcome attrition along the defensive front this fall. Tackles Hakeem Beamon and Alonzo Ford did not finish the season. Additionally, Kaleb Artis recently went down with an upper body injury. Dvon J-Thomas and Zane Durant have picked up the slack. Offensively, starting right tackle Anthony Donkoh suffered a knee injury against Minnesota and has not played since.

Recently, Coach James Franklin has fielded some criticism regarding his offense. This season, he is attempting to be more aggressive in pursuit of explosive plays. The results have been mixed.

“When it works, everybody thinks it’s a great decision”, he said. “We work at these things. We want to be aggressive. We want it to be just part of our identity. This is what we do, and I think it creates a lot more headaches for the defensive coordinator, the defensive staff that’s trying to prepare for these things. And at the end of the day, it’s about execution. You got to rep it enough that the guys know what to do,” Franklin said.

Meanwhile, reporters pressed Irish Coach Marcus Freeman regarding Notre Dame’s paltry output of 90 passing yards against Georgia. When asked whether the Irish need to improve through the air this week, Freeman responded as follows:

“All I know is that this upcoming opponent does a heck of a job on defense. Their offense creates challenges. Probably built similar to us in terms of the way they’ve had success. Maybe they don’t run the quarterback as much as we have. But I think each week it is what does it take to win? That was the best defense we’ve seen all year. I don’t care about stats. I’m just telling you, when you talk about personnel and scheme, that was a really good defense. We knew we weren’t going to be able to just have 400 yards of offense. We had to be really strong, to take care of football. We knew we wanted to run the ball, no matter what.”

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. PENN STATE’S DEFENSE

Havoc caused by PSU’s front four has fueled the Lion defense all season. Aside from Carter, ends Dani Dennis-Sutton and Amin Vanover continually force quarterbacks into mistakes. They create a formidable pass rush off the edges and contain the outside runs. If Carter is able to play, Irish left tackle Anthonie Knapp will again have his hands full. His outing against Georgia where he battled Jalon Walker and Mykel Williams was no day at the beach. This week’s challenge may prove to be as difficult.

The Lion back seven base alignment consists of three linebackers and four defensive backs. They typically replace the strong side linebacker with a nickel back in passing situations. Middle linebacker Kobe King is the leader of the second level, especially in defending the run. King is the primary beneficiary of the solid linemen up front who occupy enemy blockers. The wings are manned by Tony Rojas and Dominic DeLuca. All are good players but there are no superstars among them.

Senior safety Jaylen Reed anchors the secondary and is Penn State’s leading tackler. He is joined by Zakee Wheatley and cornerbacks Jalen Kimber and AJ Harris. This group is very athletic but not known for its physicality. Missed tackles have been a problem. Harris is the best cover corner. Sophomore Zion Tracy is the nickel back.

Notre Dame faces a tough task in trying to block the Lion front. This group is certainly no better than Georgia, however, and the back seven is less formidable than the Dawgs. Penn State’s defensive ends are quick enough to chase down Leonard when he runs. Every yard gained on the ground that enables manageable third down situations is meaningful. It would not surprise me if the Irish endeavor to establish the pass early. This could create breathing room for the rushing attack as the game unfolds.

PENN STATE’S’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Quarterback Drew Allar is a strong-armed passer who is very accurate when he has time to deliver the ball. His favorite target is All-American tight end Tyler Warren, who is a matchup nightmare for any opponent. Warren is 6’6″ and has caught 98 passes this season. He is equally adept in the short and intermediate zones.

At wide receiver, the key performers are Omari Evans and Harrison Wallace. Evans is a speedster and a legitimate deep threat. Wallace has been the most productive of a group that has yet to reach its potential. Liam Clifford and Julian Fleming, a transfer from Ohio State, share time in the slot.

Allen and Singleton have each surpassed 1,000 yards this season. Penn State’s offensive line is strongest on the right side where tackle Nolan Rucci and guard Sam Wormley line up. Pass protection has been problematic at times against quality defenses while run blocking remains a strength.

Notre Dame must first and foremost focus on stopping the run. They have done a good job in this area to date because the secondary has been able to single cover opposing wide receivers. To be successful again this week, the Irish corners must win the majority of snaps.

That leaves the elephant in the room in Warren. Something has to give, it will be difficult if not impossible for Al Golden to neutralize every threat. USC was able to slow down the Lion rushing attack and Warren caught 17 passes to beat them. The best option for Notre Dame is to force third down passes and bring pressure on Allar.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker Mitch Jeter erased all doubt regarding his health and confidence level last week. He has risen from a question mark to a plus performer during these playoffs. Irish punter James Rendell has been a bit more consistent lately and will need to deliver another strong performance.

Return man Jayden Harrison electrified the Irish faithful with a 98-yard kickoff return against Georgia. Notre Dame has been less successful on punt returns, where Freeman places a premium on simply catching the ball. The Irish have also executed multiple well-designed fakes and relentlessly pressured opposing punters. This aggressive approach will almost certainly continue.

Ryan Barker replaced Sander Sahaydak midway through the season and has stabilized the kicking situation for the Lions. His longest field goal is 49 yards. Punter Riley Thompson averages a pedestrian 42 yards per attempt. Penn State has given up one blocked punt and two blocked field goal attempts this year.

Singleton is the primary kickoff return man while Tracy handles the punt return chores. Neither player has reached the end zone in his role although Singleton has a 66-yard effort to his credit.

SUMMARY

Both teams will run the ball to set up play action passes. Neither quarterback has been asked to engineer a victory on the strength of passing alone. Allar and Leonard can become jittery in the pocket but Leonard is more adept at escaping pressure. As always, the team that can establish a consistent ground game will hold a significant advantage. Notre Dame’s interior offensive linemen must be able to move Penn State’s defensive tackles. It will be tough sledding if the Irish are unable to gain yards through the A and B gaps.

Whether or not Carter can play up to his standards is an important consideration in this game. Without him, PSU’s defense remains strong but is not exceptional. If Notre Dame can protect Leonard, the passing game will double the 90-yard total from last week.

Once again, three other factors will weigh heavily on the outcome. Special teams, penalties and turnovers are critical as is the case in any football game. Both teams had an excessive number of penalties last week and need to eliminate those errors. Turnovers have not been an issue for either squad to date, so any takeaway on Thursday will be significant. The Irish have been much more creative and productive this season on special teams. They need to exploit their advantage on Thursday.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Which team will establish its tandem of tailbacks and win the ground war?
• Will the Irish be able to make life miserable for Allar in the pocket?
• Can Leonard maintain poise and accuracy downfield?
• Will the Irish secondary have an answer for Warren?
• Which team will avoid costly, game-altering penalties?
• Will Notre Dame’s corners be able to single cover the Lion wide receivers?
• Can the Irish special teams continue their difference-making playoff performance?
• Which team will commit uncharacteristic turnovers?

PREDICTION

Points will not come easily in this contest, although I expect more scoring than we saw in New Orleans. PSU’s offense will struggle at times but no one can completely shut down Warren and the Lion tailbacks. Notre Dame can be successful if Leonard is on his game. Their biggest problem lately has been untimely penalties. Assuming the Irish don’t beat themselves, they should have enough juice in all three phases to get past the Lions.

NOTRE DAME 27  PENN STATE 20  

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