Notre Dame (7^th seed) and Indiana (10^th seed) face off Friday night in the opening game of the inaugural 12-team college football playoff. Both squads finished the regular season at 11-1. Although the Fighting Irish were not eligible for a bye, their higher seeding enables them to host this showdown. This will be the first meeting between these schools since 1991. Notre Dame holds a 23-5-1 lead in the overall series. Friday’s game will be nationally televised on ABC and ESPN beginning at 8:00 PM Eastern time.

Coach Curt Cignetti is in his first season in Bloomington after an impressive run at James Madison University. To say his transition to the Big-10 has been successful is an obvious understatement. Multiple media outlets have named him National Coach of the Year, including the Associated Press.

Cignetti took several of his veteran JMU players with him to Indiana, while adding transfers from other schools. This strategy has paid off in 2024. The Hoosiers hardly looked like a team learning a new system as they raced out of the gate. Indiana was able to dominate opponents with near-flawless execution on both sides of the ball. A road loss to Ohio State is the only blemish on their resume.

Notre Dame has also been on a roll with ten consecutive victories. Its core strength is a dominant defense that is one of the best in the country. Recently, the offense has made strides after an uneven start. Quarterback Riley Leonard has become a more polished passer and decision maker. A powerful running game flourishes with a pair of outstanding backs operating behind an ever-improving line. This group won its four games in November by a combined score of 187-45.

Each team updated the status of its key injuries. Notre Dame expects defensive tackle Howard Cross and tailback Jeremiyah Love to play while linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa is out. Kicker Mitch Jeter is finally approaching full health after a midseason injury. He will be ready to go.

Indiana recently lost starting left guard Drew Evans. Previously, right guard Nick Kidwell went down for the season. These losses have impacted the offense, particularly in pass protection. Defensively, the Hoosier starters remained healthy throughout the season. Cornerback Jamier Johnson exited the finale against Purdue with an undisclosed ailment but is available this week.

Cignetti is very confident when discussing his team’s accomplishments to date and chances going forward. This attitude applies not only against Notre Dame but for the entire playoff schedule. When asked about Friday’s challenge, he said, “First of all we’ve got a bunch of guys who have had a chip on their shoulders for a long time. “The odds of us making the College Football Playoff were pretty darn low,” he continued. “The odds of us winning the next four games are probably significantly higher than they were making the playoffs in the first place. So we’ve climbed that mountain.”

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. INDIANA’S DEFENSE

Indiana’s defensive scheme is a 4-2-5 alignment with quality players at all three levels. Their strengths are creating negative plays and putting offenses in uncomfortable third and long situations. They run numerous blitzes and stunts to bring pressure and are often successful. Up front, end Mikail Kamara is an elite pass rusher with ten sacks. Tackle James Carpenter wreaks havoc on the interior. The Hoosiers have a deep rotation of healthy bodies.

Linebacker Aiden Fisher is the team’s leading tackler and an All-Big-10 selection. He is primarily a run defender while outside backer Jailin Walker plays well in space and blitzes without warning. Indiana recorded 34 sacks and 29 quarterback hits during the regular season.

Safety Amare Ferrell is the Hoosiers’ best back-end defender and leader with four interceptions. Sophomore cornerback D’Angelo Ponds is a dynamic performer and an All-Big Ten first teamer. He plays much bigger than his 5’9” 170-pound frame would normally allow. Nickel back Terry Jones is another player to watch.

The Hoosiers have played well defensively in every game, including their lone loss to Ohio State. They are very aggressive and try to dictate what the offense can do. Their ability to stop the run has been critical to achieve the results they have delivered.

Notre Dame must be committed to running the football, although not only as a matter of strategy. Forecasted weather conditions will reward the team that consistently moves the ball on the ground. Riley Leonard must also be on target with quick passes to negate pressure. If the running game is working, play-action throws can gain large chunks of yardage. If not, yards and points in this game will be hard to come by. The Irish offensive line will face another stiff test but they have proven themselves capable in similar situations.

INDIANA’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Quarterback Kurtis Rourke is a sixth-year player and the undisputed leader of the Hoosiers this season. At  6’5” and 225 pounds, he stands in the pocket and does not flinch. Conversely, Rourke is not much of a scrambler and his critics say he takes too many sacks. That is arguable, and the bottom line is he is a highly efficient passer. Rourke has completed 70% of his throws and recorded 27 touchdowns against only four interceptions. That is impressive at any level.

Indiana runs a lot of RPOs and executes them well. They lead the nation in red zone scoring efficiency and are among the best in third down conversions. Wide receiver Elijah Sarratt is the favored target with 49 receptions. Sarratt recently awarded himself the nickname “Waffle House” because he claims he is always open. Also in the mix are Myles Price, Omar Cooper, Ke’Shawn Williams and Miles Cross. Sarratt is 6’2” but the others are under six feet. Tight end Zach Horton is a short yardage option. He had 20 catches this year.

Notre Dame will play man coverage against this group. These matchups will be critical. Rourke prefers to get rid of the ball quickly and has difficulty improvising or buying time if the primary option is not open. Irish Coach Marcus Freeman responded to a question concerning his pass defense following the shredding it withstood in Los Angeles. He was asked about cornerback Christian Gray in particular since he was frequently targeted by the Trojans.

“You’ve got to learn from some of the things that happened”, Freeman said, “but also understand and build off the confidence that he (Gray) has after that last interception he took to the house. So they’ll be ready to go. They’ll be ready. All of our DBs will be ready for the challenge that presents itself on Friday.”

Defensive Coordinator Al Golden took it a step further when asked if his players remain confident after facing the Trojans. “Trust me, nobody thinks they’re invincible or that we’re invincible”, he said. The biggest thing is for the guys to hit a reset. It’s just hard to play a different defense (against Army) leading up to USC. We played an entirely different defense, and I didn’t do a good job in the transition of putting the guys in the right position when I needed to.”

Indiana has an impressive running back tandem of its own in Ty Son Lawton and Justice Ellison. They have combined for over 1,400 yards and each has scored at least ten touchdowns. They run behind a line led by tackles Carter Smith and Trey Wedig. Veteran Mike Katic is the center. When Notre Dame attacks, they will focus on guards Tyler Stephens and Bray Lynch. Both were elevated to starting roles due to injury and have struggled in pass protection.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Jeter is set to kick for the Irish. He has practiced all week in cold, wintry conditions, so he should know what to expect. Field position will be important in a battle that may be dominated by the defenses. Australian punter James Rendell has been inconsistent to date but must be locked in on Friday. Notre Dame has been only average in the return game this season. In a game where any mistake will be costly, a fair catch may be the best option.

Indiana punter James Evans also hails from down under – he is from New Zealand. Evans has a 44-yard average but is best known for a disastrous dropped snap against Ohio State. Kicker Nicolas Radicic is highly accurate, although his longest field goal in 2024 is 41 yards.  Price is the primary punt return man and has a 65-yarder to his credit. He and alternate Ke’Shawn Williams are quick and dangerous.

Another item to watch in this phase of the game is that each team has blocked three punts this season. Finally, each coach is quite willing to run a fake punt from anywhere on the field.

SUMMARY

Indiana has twice as many rushing attempts this season as passes. They gain 4.5 yards per carry and allow opponents an average of only 70 yards rushing per game. That formula will translate into victories in the vast majority of contests. It also underscores why Rourke is able to maintain such a high completion rate.

While the quarterback matchup is important, a strong running game is the best friend of any field general. The team that can sustain success in this area will have a significant advantage. Neither team is going to win by slinging the ball 40 times. The war in the trenches is critical, as are the chess matches between the coordinators. Both teams are rested and prepared, so the players that control their emotions and execute their assignments will prevail.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Will Notre Dame be able to run the ball?
• Can the Irish secondary cover the Hoosier receivers and shut down the Waffle House?
• Which team will be able to put pressure on the quarterback?
• Will these strong, fast defenses continue to get stops on third down?
• Which coaching staff will make effective adjustments on the fly?
• Will the Irish special teams have a positive or negative impact?
• Which team will commit the fewest number of turnovers and penalties?
• Will the home crowd provide a benefit to the Irish?

PREDICTION

Football fans know that turnovers and untimely penalties always play a significant role in determining the winner. Playoff games usually turn on five or six plays, and the best athletes often rise to the occasion. The boisterous crowd will fuel the Irish to play with confidence and passion. Indiana is very solid but lacks the superstar factor that Love and Xavier Watts bring to the table. Also, Notre Dame holds an edge at the quarterback position, the offensive line, and in overall depth. I also like the matchup between Howard Cross and Riley Mills against the Hoosier guards. Expect a tight first half before the Irish take control in this battle.

NOTRE DAME 27  INDIANA 17 

Tell John what you think in the Comments section below.