Notre Dame (5-1) opens a three game homestand on Saturday night by hosting its longtime archrival, the University of Southern California (USC) Trojans (3-3). Both teams are coming off bye weeks with different perspectives on the remainder of the season. USC has had a tumultuous first half including a coaching change and three embarrassing home defeats. The Fighting Irish suffered their first home loss in four years, have experienced a wave of serious injuries, and have conducted a virtual revolving door at quarterback and along the offensive line. The game will be nationally televised on NBC beginning at 7:30 PM Eastern time.

Notre Dame and Brian Kelly have enjoyed more recent success versus Southern California after Pete Carroll’s Trojan teams dominated the first decade of this century. The Irish lead the overall series by 47-36-5. This record accounts for vacated wins by both teams. Notre Dame won the last meeting in 2019 by a 30-27 score. Since the PAC-12 truncated its schedule last season due to COVID, the teams didn’t meet for the first time since World War II.

Interim Coach Donte Williams was promoted after the Trojans fired Clay Helton last month in the wake of an upset loss to Stanford. Williams had been coaching the defensive backs since joining the program in early 2020. He was also named Associate Head Coach prior to this season but has never previously held a head coaching position. Williams is 2-2 to date with a pair of road wins and two home losses. USC is reportedly searching for a big name hire to take over the program in the December or early January timeframe.

Williams described the bye week as “a major reset” and said it allowed the team to get to know him better. “They have an idea now who I am, and I have an idea who they are, as a head coach,” he said. “It was a chance to unwind a bit and see what we did wrong or right.”

Notre Dame continues to battle injuries despite the extra week of rest. Tight end Michael Mayer is expected to play, although he may not be at 100% for the rest of the regular season. Offensive linemen Michael Carmody and Tosh Baker are currently listed as questionable. Freshman Joe Alt and junior Andrew Kristofic will start on the left side.

The Trojans also have a long injury list. Starting tight end Michael Trigg is out with a leg ailment. Backup quarterback Jaxson Dart continues to be sidelined with a knee issue. Wide receiver Kyle Ford (knee) is questionable. The defensive first unit is relatively intact, however star pass rusher Drake Jackson left USC’s last game against Utah in a walking boot. He is listed as questionable for Saturday, but his true status has been a closely held secret in Troy this week.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. USC’S DEFENSE

USC’s defensive scheme is a 3-3-5 alignment where Jackson can become a fourth down lineman or drop into coverage. His size and skillset are comparable to Notre Dame’s Isaiah Foskey. Fans can argue who is the better player. In any event, the Trojan front has recorded only ten sacks and four quarterback hits to date. By comparison, the Irish have 16 sacks and a whopping 37 quarterback hits in the same number of games. (This disparity surprised me so much that I had to check these stats on three separate sources to ensure they were accurate.)

Besides Jackson, tackle Tuli Tuipulotu is the most productive Trojan lineman. Middle linebacker Kana’I Mauga and Rover Ralen Goforth are among the leading tacklers along with safeties Isaiah Pola-Mao and Chase Williams. The 6’4” Pola-Mao is the best of this group and a legitimate impact player.

Chris Steele leads the trio at cornerback that includes Isaac Taylor-Stuart and nickel back Greg Johnson. All are experienced but collectively have surrendered more yards per catch and per attempt than their Notre Dame counterparts by a statistically significant margin. Perhaps the relatively poor pass rush is to blame for their showing this season.

These issues and the potential that Jackson is hobbled with a lower leg injury bodes well for the Irish offense. Jack Coan has proven to be an effective passer when he has time in the pocket, and this may be the week he gets it. The Trojans have also yielded 158 rushing yards per game, which is good news for the likes of Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree. If Notre Dame has fixed its offensive line with Alt and Kristofic, it could be a long night for the Trojans.

USC’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Quarterback Kedon Slovis and wideout Drake London have combined for 64 completions thus far. London is 6’5” and his calling card is the ability to come down with contested balls. Coach Brian Kelly is aware of this special chemistry and knows his team must prepare accordingly.

“We’re just going to do what Stanford did,” Kelly said. “I don’t know – he had four catches against Stanford. This is a really good football player. You have to have a plan for him, just as we had one for (former receiver Michael) Pittman and the other players they had. If you just line up and say, ‘Okay, we’ll live with what the consequences are, it’ll be like George Karlaftis at Purdue. We couldn’t line up and just say, ‘George, just rush the passer.’ We had to have a plan for him. We’ll have a plan for London as well.”

Freshman Gary Bryant, Jr. and Memphis transfer Tahj Washington are the other starters at wide receiver. Washington had 43 receptions and was named to the freshman All-American team last season for the Tigers. He has 22 catches thus far in Troy. Malcolm Epps will replace Trigg at tight end with very little dropoff in ability.

Slovis is a 64% passer who is at his best when he has protection and can get into a rhythm. The line has done a good job so far, yielding only six sacks. The center and guards are seniors, but the Trojans start a pair of redshirt freshmen at the tackle spots. Inconsistency has been a problem. Tailback Keaontay Ingram leads a productive running game with a 5.7 yard average. Surprisingly, USC throws the ball more than 58% of the time. Perhaps that will change now that Coach Williams had a bye week to analyze his situation.

The Trojans boast a 45% conversion rate on third down and have scored 30 points per game, so the question is why they have lost three of six. Part of the answer is the offense tends to stall in the red zone. More telling is the defense has been torched for more than 40 points in each defeat.

While having a plan for London is wise, Notre Dame cannot afford to weaken itself against the run or ignore the other Trojan receivers. If Kyle Hamilton is asked to support the Irish corners in bracketing London, it removes the team’s best tackler from run support. This means Notre Dame’s defensive linemen must win the individual battles in the trenches to clog the running lanes while the linebackers plug the gaps. Bringing pressure on Slovis in the pocket is also paramount, as he is not much of a scrambler.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Both USC specialists have been consistent this season. Kicker Parker Lewis has made ten of eleven field goals and recorded touchbacks on most of his kickoffs. Punter Ben Griffiths has an impressive 46-yard average. Bryant, Jr. and K.D. Nixon are the return men. Neither has been able to break loose for a long gain. The Trojans cover kicks and punts well with no significant escapes.

Jonathan Doerer has two game-winning field goals for Notre Dame this season. Punter Jay Bramblett has been outstanding recently after a slow start. The return game has greater potential with Tyree and Williams handling kickoffs and punts, respectively. Tyree’s touchdown against Wisconsin was arguably the team’s best highlight of the season to date.

Both teams appear to be evenly matched in this category, although the Irish are a bit more explosive.

SUMMARY

USC has had a rough season to date, but they still score plenty of points. They have too much talent to simply roll over in a nationally televised game against a historical rival. The Trojans must be able to run the ball to keep their defense off the field while Slovis and London play pitch and catch on third down. If they can execute this plan, the outcome may not be decided until the fourth quarter. Assuming Williams can have the visitors focused and motivated, the next question is whether Notre Dame has adequately addressed its weaknesses on both sides of the ball.

Defensively, except for Cam Hart, pass coverage along the back seven needs to tighten up. Tackling has been wildly inconsistent, and Hart is among those who deserve heat for their shortcomings in this area. The three-man front alignment with Foskey in coverage instead of rushing the passer has also been a failure. On the offensive side, effective pass protection and downhill running have been absent as the coaches shuffle blockers in and out of the lineup. If the mid-semester break results in a more stable and competent line, this team can finally move forward and realize its potential.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Will Notre Dame’s plan to contain London yield the expected results?

Which team will be able to achieve run/pass balance on offense?

Can the Irish pass rushers take advantage of the young Trojan offensive tackles?

Will another offensive hero emerge for USC if London is blanketed by the Irish secondary?

Can Michael Mayer have an impact on the game despite his injury?

Which team will have the fewest penalties and turnovers?

Can the Trojans find a way to pressure the Irish quarterbacks?

Will the Irish be sluggish in the early going after a bye week?

PREDICTION

The greatest disparity between the two teams is the strength of the respective defensive lines, where Notre Dame holds a large advantage. The Irish also have more offensive weapons to threaten a defense, which is historically rare in any matchup between these schools. Add in the home field advantage and the fact that the Trojans have been a hot mess this season may indicate this game won’t be close.

The catch is that very strange things have happened to Notre Dame throughout this series. Mediocre USC teams have risen to the occasion and knocked off highly ranked Irish squads too many times to list here. I would not be shocked if a couple of early Irish mistakes created a 14-point hole and changed the complexion of the game. Also, the last time Notre Dame played a rivalry game at night following a bye week, they were obliterated by an unremarkable Michigan team.

Now that I’ve provided more disclaimers than a TV commercial for a new pharmaceutical drug, rest assured that I am still picking the Irish to come away with a victory. The margin could be double digits if Notre Dame’s line can fire off the ball and create space for Williams and Tyree in the running game, but I’ll have to see it before I believe it.

NOTRE DAME 34  USC 27