Notre Dame and Stanford square off in a battle of unbeaten, top ten teams this Saturday evening in South Bend. The Cardinal represent a familiar foe to the Irish, as the teams now play each other every year and a more intense rivalry has developed over the past two decades. Stanford has dominated lately, holding a 6-2 edge during the Brian Kelly era at Notre Dame, including the last three in a row. This contest will be nationally televised by NBC starting at 7:30 pm Eastern time.

Stanford has defeated conference rivals USC and Oregon already this month. Coach David Shaw is in his eighth season in Palo Alto, posting a 77-22 record with two Rose Bowl victories to his credit. This year’s Cardinal team is led by junior quarterback Kevin Costello, a returning starter, and senior running back Bryce Love, who rushed for 2118 yards last year and was the Heisman Trophy runner-up to Baker Mayfield. Defensively, Stanford boasts seven starters who are seniors or fifth year players.

The Irish opened with an impressive win over Michigan, although offensive struggles emerged in the second half of that game and continued through the next two outings. Coach Brian Kelly elevated quarterback Ian Book to the starting position last week at Wake Forest, and Book led them to eight touchdowns with no turnovers. This resurgence has given the Irish faithful a renewed sense of optimism regarding this squad, as the defense and special teams have already proven to be reliable. This week’s showdown will reveal whether Book and his offensive line can continue their high level of play against a much stronger opponent.

Notre Dame reported no new injuries in the aftermath of the trip to Wake Forest. Tight end Cole Kmet remains doubtful with a high ankle sprain, although Alize Mack performed well last week with six receptions. The Cardinal will play without two starters, guard Foster Sarell and linebacker Casey Toohill. The good news for the visitors is that offensive linemen A.T. Hall and Devery Hamilton will start after missing some time.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. STANFORD’S DEFENSE

Book’s strong performance was reflected in several important categories. Red zone efficiency was a perfect seven for seven, and six scoring drives covered more than 70 yards. There were no Irish turnovers, and Book’s 74% completion rate was nearly a 20% improvement on the first three games.

While those statistics are impressive, Stanford’s defense will pose a much tougher test. This group shut down USC, holding them to a mere field goal while recording three turnovers and four sacks. The Cardinal are capably coached and play extremely well together despite the lack of superstar talent. Their 3-4 scheme is led up front by senior end Dylan Jackson, with senior inside linebackers Bobby Okreke and Sean Barton, the team’s leading tacklers, at the next level. Stanford had some difficulty with the tempo and speed of Oregon last week, but adjusted at halftime and all but shut down the Ducks while the offense caught up and won in overtime.

On Saturday, Notre Dame will not have the element of surprise with Book taking over at the helm. The Cardinal will be ready to defend the short passing game, as its linebackers are likely to shift back into coverage zones just prior to the snap to take away some easy throws. The ultimate objective is to force the Irish to throw deeper, higher-risk passes that Book has yet to demonstrate he can complete.

Stanford’s secondary is strong and matches up well with Notre Dame’s receivers, who lack elite speed. Cornerback Alijah Holder and safety Frank Buncom are the veteran stalwarts, but sophomore cornerback Paulson Adebo has held up quite well as teams such as USC have tried to test him. Adebo leads the nation in pass break-ups with eleven. If the Irish are to stretch the field, young wideouts such as Michael Young and Kevin Austin will have to contribute. Expect the Cardinal to play tight coverage throughout the evening unless and until they get burned over the top.

The Notre Dame ground game will get a boost with the expected return of Dexter Williams at running back. Although he will not start, any touches Williams gets will add a measure of speed to the attack and make Stanford defend the perimeter.

STANFORD’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

While Costello has completed 64% of his passes to eleven different receivers, Stanford’s running game has not lived up to expectations thus far this season. Love and others have combined for only 104 yards rushing per game, which is down by nearly 100 yards from last season. The root of the problem is in the offensive line, which has been impacted by injuries. The team has yet to start the same five players in consecutive weeks, although the presence of Hamilton and Hall should provide stability.

Shaw believes that is just part of the solution, and was more direct this week in addressing the issue. “We still have some inconsistencies up front,” he said. “We’ve addressed individual accountability.” “One issue is missing blocks,” Shaw said. “Bryce has a couple of big runs and we need to give him more opportunities to make plays.” Center Jesse Burkett remarked that sloppy execution and correctable mistakes have held them back more than a lack of ability, and that must change if they are to win at Notre Dame. “We’ve really got to be locked into the details,” he said.

Despite the slow start for the running game, the line does an excellent job in protection for Costello, who is essentially a pocket passer and not a runner. His primary target is wideout J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, who averages 24 yards per catch and already has seven touchdowns. The other area of the aerial attack that is very productive is at the tight end position, where Kaden Smith and Colby Parkinson have combined for 33 receptions. Costello relied heavily on this pair during the comeback at Oregon, as their size and ability to make contested catches made them virtually unstoppable on seam passes down the middle of the field. The Irish secondary will have its hands full, especially in the red zone.

A strong pass rush is the best antidote for a winning performance by Costello. The Irish need to summon the intensity they displayed against Michigan to contain the Cardinal. End Khalid Kareem has been banged up a bit after a strong start, and Daelin Hayes has all but disappeared on the opposite side. Reserve Julian Okwara has brought the most pressure on the quarterback of late, and he will get more snaps this week.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame has improved in all areas of special teams since the opening weekend, which is a most welcome development. Coverage teams have tightened up and the return men are getting a few more blocks. Justin Yoon and Tyler Newsome have settled into a groove in their respective roles, and Jonathan Doerer has become more consistent in launching his kickoffs into the end zone.

Jet Toner continues his strong performance as the Stanford place kicker. He has made five of six field goals to date and has excellent range. Punter Jake Bailey has a 43-yard average, and opponents do not get much space to mount a return. On kickoffs, the Cardinal have allowed only one to be returned this season. Backup running back Cameron Scarlett has average stats as the kickoff return man, while punt returner Trent Irwin has shown some wiggle in his efforts to date.

SUMMARY

Stanford is a veteran team that exhibits poise, focus and the ability to execute under pressure. In a close contest as this week’s battle is sure to be, those traits will come in handy and may be decisive. Notre Dame has been less consistent this season and throughout the Kelly regime, so there is some doubt it can summon the intensity that will be required in the fourth quarter. Two data points give rise to optimism. The Irish last defeated the Cardinal in 2014 on a clutch, last second touchdown pass to cap a drive that showed considerable grit. This year’s team also responded with a great last-minute defensive play against Michigan with the game on the line.

Notre Dame is a more talented group defensively, while it’s hard to find much space between the respective offenses. The victorious team will be the one that wins in the trenches. That means running the ball effectively and pressuring the quarterback. While Stanford will attempt to break the short passing rhythm of Ian Book, the Irish must disrupt Costello sufficiently to impair his ability to get the ball downfield to his favorite targets.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Will Book continue to lead the Irish on long scoring marches?

Can Notre Dame cause Costello’s completion rate to drop well below his average?

Will Stanford be able to create room for Love to have a breakout performance?

Can the Irish complete passes downfield in the intermediate and deep zones?

Which team will respond best under pressure late in the game?

Can the Irish secondary defend against Stanford’s tandem of tight ends?

Will either special teams be able to tilt the outcome in their favor?

PREDICTION

Notre Dame might very well start the game with the type of energy and emotion that Oregon used last week to build a 17-point halftime lead. The question is whether they can continue to play for 60 minutes, since the Cardinal are disciplined and have proven they can win on the road if they avoid panic and trust their coaching staff. A good start is a must for the Irish, as they have not been tested with a serious deficit all season. After three straight losses and an alarming negative trend in this series, it’s time for the Irish to say “enough is enough” and reclaim the high ground.

NOTRE DAME 27 STANFORD 24