Tenth-ranked Notre Dame (7-1) hopes to continue its winning ways as the Fighting Irish host the Naval Academy (2-6) on Saturday. The teams had met each season since 1927 until COVID derailed last year’s game. Notre Dame has recently confirmed its commitment to continue the series. The Irish enjoy a 77-12-1 overall advantage, including Brian Kelly’s 8-2 mark against the Midshipmen.  The game will be broadcast nationally by NBC starting at 3:30 pm Eastern time.

Head Coach Ken Niumatalolo is in his 14^th season at the helm in Annapolis. This year’s team started with three losses but has improved recently to become more competitive. Last week’s upset win at Tulsa followed a narrow loss against second-ranked Cincinnati, so Navy has reason to be optimistic heading into South Bend. Niumatalolo’s teams always play well against the Irish, regardless of the venue. The formula is simple – control the clock with long marches that result in points, thereby limiting the number of possessions for Notre Dame’s offense.

Niumatalolo was positive yet realistic in assessing his team’s chances. “It’s Notre Dame, it’s always a tough challenge,” he said earlier this week. “But we have to believe we can beat them. That’s where everything starts. If you don’t have any belief, you have zero chance.”

Still, Niumatalolo knows that a victory will require a certain alignment of the stars and planets. “You have to hope they make some mistakes,” he added. “And you have to get some luck. That’s just the truth. We have to play as well as we can play, and they have to help us a little bit.”

The Midshipmen are not at full health entering the contest. They lost starting safeties Mitchell West and Kevin Brennan September. Neither has returned to the lineup. Two starting offensive linemen, Nick Bernacchi and Jake Cossavella, have also gone down with injuries.

Notre Dame will once again play without star safety Kyle Hamilton. On the offensive side, wide receiver Braden Lenzy has passed through concussion protocol so he can compete this weekend. Tight end Kevin Bauman is also slated to see his first action since suffering a broken leg in the season opener. The Irish have lost five other players this year to significant knee and ankle injuries and none are ready to return to action. Maybe I’m just old fashioned but I prefer the natural grass field.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. NAVY’S DEFENSE

Navy’s 3-4 defensive set is once again undersized up front as compared to Notre Dame. The best players are senior middle linebacker Diego Fagot, who leads the team in tackles for the third straight year, and Nicholas Straw, an outside backer with good pass rushing skills.

Senior J’arius Warren anchors the front line with sophomores Donald Berniard and Jacob Busic. The trio averages just under 260 pounds. Despite the obvious disadvantage when going against 300-pound offensive linemen, the Midshipmen perform better against the run than the pass. Part of the problem is they don’t put much pressure on the quarterback, which bodes well for Irish starter Jack Coan in this matchup.

Notre Dame’s receivers will compete against a secondary that starts four players under six feet tall. Cornerback Jamal and safety Michael McMorris are the best of the group but the Irish should be able to have success in this area.  

Opponents have scored 30 points per game against the Midshipmen while recording 32 touchdowns to only 16 by the Navy offense. The Irish can be more aggressive in throwing the deep ball to Kevin Austin, Braden Lenzy, Avery Davis or freshman sensation Lorenzo Styles. Or they can watch Navy defenders bounce off Michael Mayer on his way to the end zone.

The running game should also continue to improve this week. Notre Dame has shown signs of competence in recent weeks with a bigger and more stable lineup up front. The second level and downfield blocking has improved as well. This aspect was highlighted last week when Kyren Williams broke a 91-yard scoring run.

NAVY’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

The Midshipmen have improved this year as sophomore quarterback Tai Lavatai has become more comfortable in his role. They are still a far cry from recent Navy teams that ran for well over 300 yards each week against anyone. This offense averages a very pedestrian 3.7 yards per carry and only 18 points per game.

The lone breakaway threat is slot back Carlinos Acie. This year, however, the fullbacks get most of the carries. James Harris and Isaac Ruoss rotate throughout the game at this spot. Lavatai keeps the ball quite a bit as is normal for a triple option offense but he has averaged just over two yards per attempt. One notable difference this season is a very poor touchdown scoring rate in the red zone (42%). The Middies have settled for too many field goal attempts this year as compared to recent campaigns.

Lavatai has thrown just 39 passes this season and completed 21. The best receiver is 6’5” Mychal Cooper, who is joined by Mark Walker. Cooper leads the way with a total of eight receptions in eight games. Lavatai will occasionally target wingback Chance Warren, an elusive runner who can turn a short toss into a long gain.

The Irish should substitute freely on defense to keep the energy level high and protect their starters from the cut blocking technique used by Navy. A part time player like end Jordan Botelho should get more snaps than usual as should freshman linebacker Prince Kollie. The question is whether multiple lineup changes will result in a few costly missed assignments and breakdowns.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame will have an opportunity to return punts and kicks this week. Navy rarely reaches the end zone on kickoffs and opponents average over ten yards per punt return. Chris Tyree and Williams could be difference-makers in their respective roles if the coaching staff turns them loose.

While punter Jay Bramblett has hardly been called upon in recent weeks, kicker Jonathan Doerer looked strong and confident last week. Coach Kelly revealed that Doerer has been battling a nagging injury for quite a while that has only just recently abated.

Kicker Bijan Nichols has converted 11 of 14 field goals for Navy but has suffered two blocks. He is perfect to date from under 40 yards. Freshman punter Riley Riethman averages 38.7 yards per boot. Warren is the team’s punt returner. He is able to make tacklers miss but should not get many chances in this contest.

SUMMARY

The point of emphasis for Notre Dame’s defense this week is their ability to slow down the option attack with a disciplined approach and crisp tackling. This unit does not inspire confidence in those areas. Inside linebackers JD Bertrand and Drew White looked worn down last week against North Carolina, and Hamilton’s absence was noticeable as well. If Navy is able to sustain drives and keep the ball away from Notre Dame, the margin of victory will be tighter than Irish fans expect.

Offensively, the Irish must score early and often to apply pressure on the Midshipmen. This is doable, especially when one considers that Bramblett had to punt just twice against North Carolina and only once versus USC. Coan should have the benefit of a clean pocket and I expect to see quite a bit of Tyler Buchner in this game.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Can the Irish defense bottle up the fullback dive play?

Will Buchner get enough snaps to make a significant contribution?

Can the Irish get off to a fast start and play the game with the lead?

Which team will have more success with its red zone offense?

Can Notre Dame’s special teams contribute valuable yards and field position?

Will the Irish defenders silence the complaints about their tackling ability?

Can Notre Dame force any turnovers without Hamilton in the lineup?

Will Michael Mayer run roughshod over Navy’s Lilliputian secondary?

PREDICTION

I expect Notre Dame to score points on most of their offensive possessions. The question is how many chances they will get. If Navy can sustain drives or hit the Irish for big plays due to defensive lapses or poor tackling, they could hang around on the scoreboard until well into the second half. I suspect the Midshipmen will have a few bright moments, but they don’t have enough offensive firepower or playmakers on defense to alter the inevitable.

NOTRE DAME 38  NAVY 20

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