Notre Dame returns to the road on Saturday evening to play the Boston College Eagles in a regionally televised contest. The 2-1 hosts rolled over two lower-tier opponents before being shut out at home by Virginia Tech last week. This defeat triggered a change at quarterback, where true freshman Chase Rettig will make his first collegiate start in place of veteran Davis Shinskie. Notre Dame’s lineup remains largely intact, and the Irish hope to break their three game losing streak in the first of five very winnable October games.

Both teams have struggled on offense against the stronger teams on their respective schedules. The Eagles have committed eight turnovers in three games, and their usually productive running game could muster only 70 yards against the Hokies. The swap of Rettig for Shinskie, who threw for 279 yards against Notre Dame last season in a 20-16 loss, is a surprise at this early stage of the season. The message is that Coach Frank Spaziani must believe his team can run against the Irish, and he hopes that Rettig will protect the ball so as not to put his defense in a difficult position.

The Notre Dame offense is still in search of balance. Recent opponents have defended the passing lanes while paying a decreasing level of attention to the Irish running game. While Dayne Crist appears to be productive from a statistical standpoint, any quarterback with only a few games under his belt won’t win many games by throwing 50 passes against defenses that know what is coming. 

One area of concern for the Irish is the health of tailbacks Armando Allen and Jonas Gray. Allen may be limited this week and Gray is not expected to be available. This would not only detract from the running game, but Allen is the only back who has demonstrated the ability to pick up the blitz in pass protection.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. BOSTON COLLEGE’S DEFENSE

The key matchup here is in the trenches. The Eagles will try to control the line of scrimmage with its front four and drop the rest into an umbrella style pass coverage. Alex Albright is the primary pass rushing threat while tackles Kaleb Ramsey and Damik Scafe will try to clog the middle. BC’s linebackers are the strength of the defense. Mark Herzlich returns after a one-year battle with cancer, and he is just rounding into form after suffering a stress fracture in his foot just prior to the season. Sophomore middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, who was all over the field against Notre Dame last season, leads the team in tackles with 12 per game.

The Irish will have to force the Eagle safeties and talented linebacking corps to respect the run, or Crist will be throwing into the teeth of coverage all night. This strategy worked perfectly for Boston College in the 2008 meeting between these teams, and it will be effective again unless Notre Dame wins its share of the individual battles up front .

The Eagle secondary is comparable to the teams the Irish have faced this season. Senior cornerback DeLeon Gause has returned an interception for a touchdown this season, and free safety Wes Davis represents an excellent last line of defense. Notre Dame will seek to spread the ball around and make Boston College pay if they overplay Michael Floyd or Kyle Rudolph. That means Theo Riddick must continue his progress as the slot receiver and Crist must also be able to find T.J. Jones in single coverage situations. The Irish must also be willing to stretch the field with a few deep passes to keep the defense honest.

An area that has been discussed extensively since the Michigan game is the willingness of Coach Brian Kelly to allow Crist to run the ball out of the read option. Crist’s head injury and the uneven performances by the backup quarterbacks a few weeks ago have curtailed that element of Notre Dame’s offense, but it has allowed defenses to effectively disregard this threat. At 1-3 on the season, perhaps it is time for Notre Dame to take a few calculated risks.

BOSTON COLLEGE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

The BC coaching staff apparently decided that the future is now, so the highly recruited and strong-armed Rettig is going to start. He enrolled in January as has been through spring and fall practices with the team, but the plan of attack will probably be relatively simple. The running game must work for the Eagles this week if they are to have a chance to win. Notre Dame would love to force 40+ passes from a true freshman, but that won’t be Spaziani’s approach. The Irish should accept Rettig’s promotion as a physical challenge to stop the run.

Meanwhile, the Boston College offensive line is led by huge senior tackles Anthony Costanzo and Rich Lapham. The guards and center have not found their stride as yet, and the running game has not yet been as productive as in past years. The line has also allowed eight sacks, which is somewhat alarming given the overall level of competition.

The Eagles will feature 5’10” Montel Harris, who will run behind fullback James McCluskey, a 6’2” 250 pound bruiser. When Rettig drops back to pass, he will look for Clyde Lee and 6’6” Ifeanyi Momah, who are primarily short range receivers, and 6’4” deep threat Jonathan Coleman.  Harris is also used extensively as a receiver out of the backfield, and Rettig may check down to him frequently on Saturday. The Eagles may throw short, safe passes on first down to create manageable second and third down situations for Rettig, and the Irish cornerbacks should not be afraid to react aggressively by jumping certain routes if he stares down his primary receiver.

 This offense has experienced problems this season with third down conversions (only 31%) and time of possession, where they have an uncharacteristic deficit. Red zone efficiency is also down, as evidenced by a subpar touchdown rate of 25% (compare this with Stanford’s 16 of 19 prior to the Notre Dame game).

Nose tackle Ian Williams will be an important player for the Irish. If he performs well in the middle, Manti Te’o should approach last week’s tackling statistics and become very well acquainted with Harris. While the Irish outside pass rushers may have trouble getting to the quarterback against BC’s tackles, it would be a worthwhile gamble to bring additional pressure up the middle against the freshman. If Notre Dame allows Rettig to get comfortable in the pocket and gain confidence, he has the arm and the talent to hurt them.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Irish have struggled in the area in recent weeks as coach Mike Elston has missed time due to illness. Elston is back now to provide renewed emphasis in this area. It is likely that new players will be inserted on the various return teams to inject some life into these underperforming units. Kicker David Ruffer continues to perform well, and punter Ben Turk is slowly becoming more consistent.

Boston College has competent specialists in punter Ryan Quigley and kicker Nate Freese. Gause is the return man for both punts and kickoffs, but his averages (4.4 and 18.3 yards, respectively) are not very impressive. The coverage units appear to be performing well.

SUMMARY

The Eagles will attempt to smother Notre Dame’s passing game and dare the Irish to run. If they are successful, we can expect a low-scoring affair that will reduce the pressure on Rettig to perform beyond his age and experience level. This outcome is not out of the question, however, as Rettig reportedly was interested in the Irish and recruiting interest was not reciprocated by the previous staff. The young man will be extremely motivated to excel in this contest, and he may surprise Notre Dame if he can maintain poise in the pocket.

This is an important game for the Irish, not only because BC is a beatable opponent but also because this team must demonstrate that it can find a way to win a close, hard-fought battle. Too many narrow defeats can become a disease, while a breakout performance on Saturday could be the springboard for a series of wins in October and possibly beyond.

Here are a few questions that may determine the outcome:

Will the Eagle defensive line win the battle up front and force the Irish away from the running game?

Can the Irish force Rettig to make mistakes and play like a freshman?

Will Notre Dame show improvement on special teams, particularly in the return game?

Can the Irish cornerbacks effectively cover BC’s tall receivers?

Which team will be more efficient on third down and in the red zone?

Will Crist be allowed to run the ball?

Can the Irish get past the “almost” stage and put together a complete, winning performance?

PREDICTION

Notre Dame has more weapons on offense, but Kelly must utilize them in order to keep a good Boston College defense honest. The Eagles do not have one of their better offensive teams this year. They are rebuilding the line and apparently will use the rest of this season to prepare Rettig for 2011. Still, they will play this game with passion and can win if the Irish attack remains predictable. Allen’s health may be an important factor in this equation. If he cannot start and play to his usual standard, it will definitely affect the outcome. In the final analysis, Notre Dame needs a win badly and should be able to get past the Eagles in another close contest, where the score looks very familiar with last year’s result.

NOTRE DAME 20 BOSTON COLLEGE 16