Notre Dame (5-2) completes a grueling stretch of eight consecutive games to start the season when the Fighting Irish host undefeated archrival USC (6-0) on Saturday evening. The Trojans have barely survived their two most recent battles against unheralded PAC-12 foes and have lost ground in the polls. Coach Marcus Freeman’s squad has lost two of its last three games as injuries and fatigue have taken a toll. The game will be nationally televised on NBC beginning at 7:30 PM Eastern time.

Coach Lincoln Riley is in his second season at USC with an overall record of 17-3. This is the final year that the Trojans will play in the PAC-12 Conference as they are moving to the Big-10 in 2024. Riley has built an explosive offense behind Heisman Trophy incumbent Caleb Williams, a talented quarterback who is a gifted runner and a strong, accurate passer.

Defense has been USC’s weakness this season. The Trojans have surrendered 82 points in their last two games. The schedule will also be tougher in the second half of the season. Beginning with this road trip to South Bend, USC will play five ranked teams over a six week stretch.

The Irish will attempt to prove that last week’s meltdown at Louisville was an aberration. Most of the issues were on the offensive side of the ball, where both players and coaches alike performed well below expectations. While injuries may have contributed to the loss, the problems run much deeper. Reporters asked Coach Freeman for his assessment earlier this week.

“Most importantly, what we can’t do is make excuses for why the outcome was what it was”, he said. “We can’t let others make excuses for us. And it’s my job to make sure this team is ready to perform on the stage that being a part of the Notre Dame football program presents. Every week it’s going to present this stage and this opportunity, and I have to make sure his team is ready to go”.

Notre Dame has several players on its injury list but most are expected to play. These include wideouts Jayden Thomas and Jaden Greathouse, who are still nursing tender hamstrings. Deion Colzie and Matt Salerno remain out for an extended period. On defense, safety Thomas Harper (concussion) will return to active duty. Tackle Gabe Rubio (knee) will also be available after sitting out last week. He will likely not be at 100% strength.

The Trojans played without starting corner Domani Jackson last week and receiver Zachariah Branch. Both remain listed as questionable for this contest. Defensive end Korey Foreman continues to battle shoulder problems and is doubtful. Foreman was the nation’s top recruit three years ago but has not been a factor in the team’s success since showing flashes of ability in his freshman season.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. USC’S DEFENSE

USC’s defensive scheme is a 4-2-5 alignment including a deep front four rotation, two linebacker spots and five defensive backs. The core strength up front starts with interior linemen Stanley Ta’ufo’ou and Bear Alexander, a transfer from Georgia. The pass rushers include Solomon Byrd, Jamil Muhammad, and former Irish recruit Anthony Lucas.

Both of the 2022 starting linebackers are back. Shane Lee and Eric Gentry transferred in when Riley was hired as head coach, however they must now battle for playing time with two newcomers. Mason Cobb came in this year as a transfer from Oklahoma State and is now starting in the middle over Lee. Freshman Tackett Curtis beat out Gentry for the nod on the weak side. All four see plenty of action.

The secondary is the weakest area of the defense. Jackson’s absence weakens the cornerback position, where Ceyair Wright and either Jacobe Covington or Christian Roland-Wallace will start. Nickel back Jaylin Smith is a talented player who leads the team in tackles by a wide margin. Strong safety Calen Bullock is a veteran starter while the free safety spot continues to be a rotation between Max Williams and Bryson Shaw. With the exception of Smith, poor tackling has been an issue for this group.

Despite the lapses that have hurt them in recent weeks, this defense has an abundance of depth and playmaking ability. USC has an astounding 57 tackles for loss and 22 sacks in six games to date. By comparison, Notre Dame has only 30 and 11, respectively, in seven games. Each defense has eight takeaways.

The Irish offensive line must be improved this week or the Trojan defensive line will create havoc plays that kill drives. The hosts must run the ball effectively and avoid third and long situations. If USC copies Duke and Louisville by loading up against the run, Freeman and Gerad Parker need an effective response. Jeremiah Love would be an ideal weapon to get to the edge of the defense.

USC’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Caleb Williams has a number of quality targets in the passing game such that it is unwise for an opponent to focus on any particular threat. Tahj Washington, Mario Williams, Dorian Singer and Brenden Rice are just a few of the names in the wide receiver rotation. Rice and Washington lead the team in receptions and touchdowns. Tight end Lake McRee and the running backs are also an integral part of the aerial attack.

Containment with the pass rush is critical for Notre Dame. Williams is usually on the move when his primary receiver is covered, and bad things happen when he leaves the pocket. Williams is adept at finding open receivers on the run because they run a well-choreographed scramble drill when the original play breaks down. The other edge to the sword is that Williams is an elusive runner who almost always causes the first defender on the scene to miss. He scored three rushing touchdowns last week and his team needed every one of them.

Veteran Austin Jones and Marshawn Lloyd, a transfer from South Carolina, are a formidable one-two punch at tailback. Jones outrushed the entire Irish team in last year’s win by 154-90. Lloyd, who played youth and high school football against Caleb Williams near Washington, DC, has earned the bulk of the carries this season. He entered the transfer portal last December rather than play for the Gamecocks in the Gator Bowl against Notre Dame. Williams immediately recruited him to join him at Troy. Each has averaged over six yards per carry in 2023.

Up front, Troy’s offensive line is mostly rebuilt from 2022. Holdovers Jonah Monheim and Justin Dedich are playing new positions this year. Monheim played right tackle until this year when he moved over to the left, while Dedich was a guard and is now the center. The other three starters were imported from other schools for this season. The group does a credible job in the ground game but has struggled to protect Williams. Notre Dame could not stop the Trojan running game last year (204 net yards) and will find themselves in deep trouble if that happens again.

Assuming the hosts play more soundly against the run, the outcome may come down to whether they can keep Williams from beating them with heroic scrambles. The Irish have covered opposing receivers quite well this season but there is a limit to how long any defender can stay with someone when the quarterback is moving freely to buy more precious seconds. The rush must collapse the pocket around Williams without allowing him to escape while the secondary keeps USC’s receivers in front of them.  Even then, missed tackles remain a concern.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame’s coverage and return units are among the worst in relative field position. No playmakers have emerged and the Irish lose ground on nearly every exchange of punts. Kicker Spencer Shrader rebounded last week with two long field goals after a spate of misses in previous games.

USC’s special teams are sparked by return man Zachariah Branch, who has scored on both a punt and kickoff this season. Branch remains questionable for Saturday’s game and a recent update by Coach Riley seems to indicate he won’t be ready. Kicker Denis Lynch is a bit unpredictable. He missed a chip shot kick last week to beat Arizona in regulation but this time it was a bad snap that ruined the play. Lynch has only attempted one long field goal this season, and he nailed it from 53 yards. Punter Eddie Czaplicki is another import from Arizona State this year and has proved to be quite effective. He has a 45-yard average and the Trojans have not allowed a single punt return yard in 2023.

SUMMARY

The notion that Notre Dame can control the ball and the clock with a strong ground attack to beat USC has become more remote during the past two weeks. The Trojans have more talent at the first two levels of defense than either Duke or Louisville, so it will take a monumental turnaround for the Irish to dominate in this fashion. Sam Hartman will not win an aerial shootout with Williams, especially with a depleted wide receiver corps. I’m anxious to see what Freeman and his staff come up with in terms of an attack strategy but they must help the defense by moving the ball and putting up points. USC’s defense is not afraid to gamble and will feed off negative plays as they have done all season.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Will Notre Dame be able to keep containment on Williams?
• Can the Irish offense avoid negative plays by the aggressive Trojan defense?
• Which team will have the fewest penalties and turnovers?
• Will poor field position and lackluster special teams again plague Notre Dame?
• Which team will be able to run the ball most effectively?
• Will the Irish offensive line be able to protect Hartman?
• Which team will tackle best, particularly in the secondary?
• How many transfers can a team acquire before it becomes absurd?

PREDICTION

It’s fine that Freeman took responsibility for his team’s lack of preparation and poor performance at Louisville but it does not answer the most basic question: What will Notre Dame do about it? Specifically, will they fix the pass protection breakdowns? Will they build in an opportunity to check out of futile runs up the middle against overloaded fronts? Will the wide receivers be able to get open? The “book” on Notre Dame’s offense is out now and the staff must make strategic adjustments. It’s unconscionable that this didn’t happen at Louisville, and the team cannot wait until the bye week to address these issues. The stakes are high because a loss to USC would render the season a failure.

Meanwhile, the Trojans’ leaky defense is the reason they are not getting much respect in the polls despite being undefeated. The unit has talent, however, and USC’s coaches will use the recent criticism as motivation for a more inspired effort. Offensively, the Trojans will not light up the scoreboard on the Irish absent multiple turnovers in their favor. The question is whether Notre Dame can score enough points to beat them.

My answer is I have more faith in Williams’ ability to lift his team to victory than I do in the Irish staff’s chances of concocting an offensive turnaround by Saturday night. Even collectively, these coaches do not have the requisite experience to draw upon on that side of the ball. Besides, the problems run deeper than any adjustments to play selection and scheme might cure. For example, the offensive linemen have been losing too many individual battles, which is both a surprise and a disappointment. At some point we must come to terms with the fact that they are not as good as we thought they were.

USC 27  NOTRE DAME 20 

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