Notre Dame (9-3) will showcase a few new faces along with several familiar ones on Friday as the Fighting Irish take on Oregon State (8-4) at the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas. The starting lineups for both teams will be markedly different from the regular season. Numerous transfers and NFL-bound veterans are unavailable for this game, clearing the way for young players to get a head start on the 2024 season. The matchup will be nationally televised by CBS starting at 2:00 pm Eastern time.

Most of the changes for Notre Dame are on offense, where quarterback Sam Hartman, tailback Audric Estime, and starting tackles Joe Alt and Blake Fisher declared for the NFL. No fewer than four wide receivers elected to transfer earlier this month. This group includes Chris Tyree, Rico Flores, Braylan James and Tobias Merriweather. Steve Angeli will start at quarterback, while senior Tosh Baker and freshman Charles Jagusah get the nod at tackle. The return of Jayden Thomas, Matt Salerno and Deion Colzie from injury will provide some veteran relief for the undermanned receiving corps.

The Irish defense will be without three players with professional aspirations. Cornerbacks Cam Hart and Thomas Harper join linebacker Marist Liufau on the sidelines. Talented youngsters such as Christian Gray and Jaden Mickey will help fill in at corner along with veteran Clarence Lewis. At linebacker, sophomore Jaylen Sneed and freshman Jaiden Ausberry will pick up the slack. Regarding special teams, kicker Spencer Shrader and punter Bryce McFerson are slated to play.

Oregon State’s situation is more dire in the wake of the PAC-12 breakup that left the Beavers without a clear conference home in 2024. Eleven of the 22 position starters and both specialists will not participate. To make matters worse, Coach Jonathan Smith left last month to take over at Michigan State. The school then promoted Defensive Coordinator Trent Bray to the top job. However, Bray will not coach the Beavers in the Sun Bowl. Instead, he is focusing on building his staff and preparing for the 2024 season. The job of Interim Head Coach for the Sun Bowl falls to Wide Receivers Coach Kefense Hynson.

Hynson has the daunting task of cobbling together a starting lineup out of the program’s ashes. He will not have starting quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei or backup Aiden Chiles, who are in the transfer portal. Ben Gulbranson, who threw just one pass this season, will get the nod. The offense will also be without leading rusher Damien Martinez, second leading receiver Anthony Gould, the top two tight ends, and both starting tackles. The defense fared only marginally better, although both inside linebackers including leading tackler Easton Mascarenas-Arnold and top cover corner Jermod McCoy will be missing. Finally, OSU’s starting kicker and punter have opted out.

Head Coach Marcus Freeman tapped Quarterbacks Coach Gino Guidugli to run the offense in the wake of Gerad Parker’s departure. Newly hired Mike Denbrock is busy relocating his family to South Bend but will visit with the team in El Paso. Guidugli answered a few questions this week regarding the look of the Irish attack absent so many season-long starters.

“It’s a whole new offense”, he said. “At the end of the day we got three starters returning and two of those starters have only played three or four games. Billy [Schrauth] and Ashton [Craig], getting their first opportunity to have a start in a game of this magnitude. Gotta go back to the basics. The foundation, the installs, all the day-one stuff in training camp. The fortunate thing is you get a lot of time to prepare for a game like this, so you get stuff in. We’ve got really smart kids at Notre Dame. Those guys will go out there and be able to execute. How much can you put in? We’ll be able to do enough, but we’re going to lean on the things that we’re best at.”

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. OREGON STATE’S DEFENSE

The Beavers deploy a 3-3-5 alignment with senior outside linebacker John McCartan moving up to the line to create a four man front on passing downs. End Andrew Chatfield, a disruptive force who leads the team with nine sacks, lines up opposite McCartan. This dynamic pair will provide a stiff challenge for the untested Irish tackles. These battles will have a significant impact as to how effective Notre Dame’s offense will be on Friday.

Angeli has been productive in mop-up duty this season but the Beavers are not going to favor him with basic vanilla coverage reads. Oregon State has had several weeks to prepare for this game and the defensive coaches understand that a low scoring game is their best and possibly only chance to win. They will take measured risks to create turnovers and maintain favorable field position given the fact that the Beaver offense has been gutted by attrition.

The Irish have the necessary size and skill players to run the ball against this group, even without Estime. The tandem of Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price should be more than adequate. Oregon State knows the Irish want to run and will deploy additional resources near the line of scrimmage. Angeli should expect plenty of late movement by the Beavers as they attempt to disguise run blitzes and coverage assignments. The lesser of two evils for them is to dare Notre Dame to beat them through the air. The OSU player to watch in the secondary is safety Kitan Oladapo.

The Irish receivers will have to be able to gain separation downfield. New position coach Mike Brown has made this a point of emphasis in his daily instruction and drills. A healthy Thomas could be a difference maker in the intermediate passing zones. Angeli will also try to get the ball to Jordan Faison and Jaden Greathouse in space. Absent Tyree and Merriweather, however, Notre Dame appears to lack a true deep threat. True freshman KK Smith might get a look if he proves to be ready for spot duty after sitting out the regular season with a shoulder injury.

The larger question for the Irish is the offensive line. Only one of the team’s five opening day starters will play, and guard Pat Coogan is arguably the weakest link in that group. If I were to focus on one matchup during the broadcast, it would be Notre Dame’s Jagusah (#56) at left tackle against Oregon State’s Chatfield.

OREGON STATE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

There was much good news to celebrate this month regarding the Irish defense. Several key players will participate even though they will be headed to the NFL draft in 2024. This group includes linebacker JD Bertrand, safety DJ Brown, and end Javontae Jean-Baptiste. They are joined by other starters who have announced their intention to return to Notre Dame next season. Tackles Howard Cross and Rylie Mills join linebacker Jack Kiser in this category.

An added bonus is that star safety Xavier Watts will play on Friday. Watts has yet to announce his intentions for 2024. He has another year of college eligibility if he chooses to use it. Irish fans are understandably hopeful that he’ll be back.

This unit promises to make the afternoon very difficult for Gulbranson and the Beaver offense. Although depleted, they are not without a few capable weapons. Tailback Deshaun Fenwick is a bruiser who gained 500 yards this season. Slot receiver Silas Bolden caught 51 passes and is lightning quick at 5’8” 160 pounds. The passing game will miss a reliable receiver in tight end Jack Velling, though. He led the team with eight touchdowns.

The strongest unit on Oregon State’s 2023 roster was the offensive line. They were among the best in the nation as all five starters graded out exceptionally well in terms of run blocking. The absence of both tackles is more likely to put the quarterback at risk but the Beavers will continue to run the ball because they have been so successful at it. One young Irish defender to watch is #23 Jaiden Ausberry.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame enjoys a distinct advantage in this category as both specialists will be in the lineup. Kicker Spenser Shrader and punter Bryce McFerson had solid seasons and the Irish roster depth will ensure the return and coverage units are stocked with capable players. Faison will field punts while Devyn Ford continues as the primary kickoff return man.

Kicker Atticus Sappington and punter Josh Green won’t play in this game but the Beavers have had several weeks to groom replacements. Green was also the holder for place kicks, so that job will have to be delegated as well. Bolden is a dangerous return man and Notre Dame’s cover teams will have to be alert and disciplined.

Given the changes for the Beavers, the Irish should aggressively pressure all OSU punts and kicking attempts.

SUMMARY

Both teams will attempt to protect their quarterback with a strong running game. The team that is able to gain traction on the ground is likely to prevail. Neither quarterback is capable of winning the game but each can make enough mistakes to lose it. The defense that can apply the most pressure can tilt the outcome in its favor. I would be shocked if there are not multiple turnovers in this contest.

Defensively, the Irish will be in a comfort zone with Al Golden at the helm and a lineup that is almost intact from the regular season. Although the Beavers have a more challenging task given the coaching changes and personnel disruption, one can expect that the players who suit up will give their all. They have been through considerable turmoil and have remained loyal to their program.

A notable advantage for Oregon State is that Gulbranson started eight games in 2022 while Angeli will be making his first collegiate start. Conversely, Notre Dame’s main advantage is at linebacker, where Bertrand and Kiser provide leadership and sure tackling. The Beavers have similar personnel at the inside positions in Mascarenas-Arnold and Calvin Hart, but neither will play.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Which team will establish and maintain a productive rushing attack?
• Will Watts once again be a difference maker in the Notre Dame secondary?
• Which new pair of offensive tackles will best protect their quarterback?
• Will previously injured Irish receivers return to make plays for Angeli?
• Can the Notre Dame special teams exploit their apparent advantage?
• Which young Irish players will make the most of their opportunity?
• Will Guidugli’s offensive game plan contain any inspired new wrinkles?
• Is it a mortal sin to root for Alabama?

PREDICTION

The game is unlikely to be a walkover despite the obvious disadvantages for the Beavers from a player and coaching standpoint. Still, a loss would be a major embarrassment for Freeman and Notre Dame. Neither team is in a position to generate offensive fireworks. Even hard-core fans may struggle to stay awake, both at home and in the stands. That aside, I expect the Irish defense to do its part and hold down Oregon State long enough for Angeli and the running backs to find the end zone.  

NOTRE DAME 23  OREGON STATE 10