Notre Dame hopes to bounce back from a wet, sloppy and ultimately soul-crushing road trip when the Fighting Irish host the Naval Academy on Saturday. The Midshipmen are 4-0 for the first time since 2004, and have won eight straight games dating back to last year’s 49-39 loss to Notre Dame. Navy has played a weak 2015 schedule to date, but the Irish can’t afford to be overconfident based on the recent competitiveness between these teams and the cascade of turnovers and mental lapses they committed against Clemson. Saturday’s game will commence at 3:30 PM Eastern time and NBC will provide national television coverage.

Navy Coach Ken Niumatalolo has posted a career-record of 61-35 in his seven plus seasons at the helm. The 61 wins are the most in school history, and he is 2-5 against Notre Dame with back to back victories in 2009-10. The Irish lead the all-time series by 75-12-1. Both teams celebrate the long standing rivalry and have agreed to play games in Jacksonville, FL in 2016 and in San Diego, CA in 2018.

Irish fans can take heart in the fact that the team performed exceptionally well last month against Georgia Tech, who also runs a version of the triple option offense. On balance, the Mids cannot match Georgia Tech’s athletic ability, but they run multiple formations and are very adept at keeping an opponent off balance. Senior quarterback Keenan Reynolds leads a traditionally strong rushing attack that has chewed up 340 yards per game, and the defense has played well despite starting only four seniors.

Last week, Coach Brian Kelly saw Clemson load up to stop his powerful running game and force Notre Dame’s relatively inexperienced quarterback, DeShone Kizer, to beat them through the air. The Irish finally adjusted, but it proved to be too late as a furious fourth quarter rally fell a yard short. This week, Navy may not be strong enough to make Notre Dame’s offense one-dimensional, but they will do their best to confuse Kizer with pre-snap shifts, blitzes and stunts. The Mids do have enough firepower to pull off another monumental upset in this series if the Irish continue to commit turnovers and are not emotionally ready for a 60-minute battle.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. NAVY’S DEFENSE

The Irish need to establish Will Fuller as a deep threat and get the running game untracked after both were largely neutralized last week. C.J. Prosise carried a heavy workload against Clemson and may be banged up a bit, so Kelly must find opportunities to work Josh Adams and Dexter Williams into the rotation. Along the offensive line, Quenton Nelson should be available at left guard despite an ankle injury, and the right side of the line simply needs to improve after a lackluster performance in Death Valley.

Navy’s 3-4 defense is among its best and most athletic in recent seasons. Linebackers Micah Thomas and Daniel Gonzales are accomplished players at 240+ pounds, while senior defensive end Will Anthony is a disruptive player. Nose tackle Bernard Sarra is a legitimate 300 pounder who will be a handful in the middle despite playing with a cast on his forearm. This group has surrendered fewer than 150 rushing yards per game and just one rushing touchdown, which is impressive at any level and certainly noteworthy for a service academy that must typically overcome an opponent’s size advantage.

Navy was hit with a devastating loss at the rover position last week, when Kwazel Bertrand broke his ankle. Relatively inexperienced backup Daiquan Thomasson will get the start for the Mids. Free safety Lorentez Barbour now becomes the leader of the secondary, which has also performed well from a statistical standpoint (186 passing yards allowed per game). Cornerback Quincy Adams is the team’s best cover man.

Earlier this week, Niumatalolo praised his defense while being careful to build up his opponent. “This is our best defense that we’ve had, and we’ll go in there and take a shot at them,” he said. “Like I said, they’re really good, always have been. Coach [Brian] Kelly, I’ve always admired the way he calls plays. If he sees something, he’s going to exploit it. He’s got a great feel for the game, so we’ve got to be able to adjust. We’ve got some ideas on what to do, but he’s going to adjust really quickly to us.”

NAVY’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Once again, the Midshipmen will rely on the wizardry of Reynolds to keep the Irish off balance. The senior already has nine rushing touchdowns this season and needs only five more to break the all-time FBS career record of 76. The skill position players surrounding Reynolds this year were backups in 2014, but the new starters have compensated quite well for those graduation losses.

First down plays will be critical in that gains of five or more yards will enable Navy to run its offense without undue risks. Reynolds has thrown only 28 passes in four games but has earned 19 yards per reception. Navy has not had to throw the ball under duress this season, and the task for Notre Dame will be to force them into that very position.

Fullback Chris Swain and backup Quentin Ezell are extremely productive, averaging five yards per carry. Slotback DeBrandon Sanders is only 5’7”, but he has gained over ten yards each time he takes a pitch from Reynolds. The reason behind their success is a veteran offensive line, with four seniors and sophomore right tackle Robert Lindsey.

The Irish secondary must account for 6’4” wide receiver Jamir Tillman, who will be the primary target of Reynolds when he drops back to pass. The Mids have also been successful throwing to slotbacks Sanders and Dishan Romine on the wheel route, where they have racked up sizeable gains.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Navy’s specialists are also quite competent. Kicker Austin Grebe is perfect on field goals this season while punter Alex Barta averages close to 44 yards while allowing only one return. Sanders and Romine handle most of the kickoff and punt return chores and are both elusive and dangerous.

Tyler Newsome and Justin Yoon continue to man the punting and kicking chores for Notre Dame, and both will pray for a dry field on Saturday with unremarkable winds. Yoon and his holder (usually Kizer) appear to have conquered the mechanical issues that resulted in a couple of missed kicks earlier this season, and Newsome has been solid. C.J. Sanders gave the team a boost with a punt return for a touchdown two weeks ago, although he fumbled the second half kickoff against Clemson that led to a Tiger score in a two point loss.

SUMMARY
Navy is a quality opponent and any notion that the Irish will dominate them as they did UMass should immediately be dispelled. The Midshipmen have forced nine turnovers and committed only one, and commit very few penalties. In short, Notre Dame must work hard to beat them as they do not have any glaring weaknesses. The Irish certainly will provide a much tougher test than Navy has faced this season, but the Mids will not be intimidated given their recent history of competitiveness in this series.

Notre Dame’s offense must be ready to dictate tempo and strategy rather than take three quarters to wake up and make adjustments. Kelly must assume that teams have scouted the Irish by this point in the season and strive to break tendencies in play calling and personnel alignment. Defensively, they must defend the fullback dive and quarterback keeper, which account for 80% of Navy’s running plays. Forcing the Midshipmen wide will work to Notre Dame’s advantage if they can corral Sanders on the perimeter, but a lack of gap discipline and crisp tackling will put the outcome in jeopardy.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Will Notre Dame be able to protect the football after a bad case of fumble-itis last week?

Can Prosise break off runs of 10-20 yards?

Will the Irish defense maintain discipline against the option as they did against Georgia Tech?

Can Notre Dame’s secondary avoid getting burned by trickery or the long play-action pass?

Will the Irish special teams contribute to the cause in a meaningful way?

Can the Notre Dame defense win the battle on first down?

PREDICTION

The Irish should be upset about last week’s defeat and can channel that anger into a strong and more focused effort from the opening kickoff on Saturday. On the other hand, the first loss of the 2014 season sent the team into a horrific tailspin, so it is very difficult to predict Notre Dame’s state of readiness for this week’s contest. One thing you can count on is that Navy will be absolutely ready to give a maximum effort and fight until the final whistle. The Irish have too much speed and talent on paper, but the game may be uncomfortably close well into the second half. Fortunately, the game time forecast calls for clear skies and mild temperatures.

NOTRE DAME 38 NAVY 28