Notre Dame continues its march through Pennsylvania on Saturday as the Fighting Irish take on the Pittsburgh Panthers. Coach Pat Narduzzi, formerly the Defensive Coordinator at Michigan State, is 6-2 in his first at the helm for Pitt. Narduzzi succeeded Paul Chryst, who returned to Wisconsin to take over in Madison where he had been the Badgers’ Offensive Coordinator. Despite these changes, history suggests this week’s game will be another close, hard fought contest between these teams. The last eight games have been split 4-4 and two of those contests were decided in overtime. The game will be televised nationally by the ABC network beginning at 12:00 Noon Eastern time.

The Irish are coming off a physical battle against a surprisingly tough Temple squad that took them to the wire in a 24-20 victory last Saturday. On Tuesday, Notre Dame received an endorsement of sorts from the Playoff Selection Committee, who ranked the Irish at #5 in its initial release. This is markedly higher than their eighth place spot in the AP poll, and the takeaway is that Notre Dame is in a reasonable position to capture a playoff berth if they finish the season at 11-1. Significant changes will happen above and below them this month, but the Irish may more in control of their own destiny than previously believed.

Of course, the Panthers would love to turn any plans for a post-season party at Notre Dame into an Irish Wake. Pittsburgh is honoring its past by bringing back legacy players such as Mike Ditka and Tony Dorsett, who 40 years ago this month ran through the Irish for 303 yards.

The teams last met in 2013, when Pitt derailed Notre Dame’s season with a 28-21 upset. They are no stranger to one-score outcomes this year as well, and are 5-2 in such contests. One area where the Irish can improve their chances of winning is in their red zone offense efficiency, where they rank 98th in the nation. “It’s certainly a number that we’re aware of, that we have to really clean up the turnovers and converting field goals into touchdowns,” Coach Brian Kelly replied when the inevitable questions were asked this week.

Another subject that made waves this week was in-game sideline altercations between the head coaches at each school and an assistant. Narduzzi had an animated conversation with Offensive Coordinator Jim Chaney near the end of the first half against North Carolina when Pittsburgh allowed 10 seconds to run off the clock. Meanwhile, Kelly got physical with David Grimes on the Irish sideline when Kelly felt that Grimes’ criticism of the referees was about to earn his team a 15-yard penalty. While Narduzzi and Chaney shrugged off their exchange as a “heat of battle” moment, Kelly’s actions led to further explanations that fell short of a full apology. The takeaway from each incident is that the extreme pressure to win in college football can lead to lapses in judgment among coaches that are already working in a highly charged atmosphere.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. PITTSBURGH’S DEFENSE

The Panthers field a strong front seven in their 4-3 alignment. Narduzzi has a big, experienced line featuring nose tackle Tyrique Jarrett and end Ejuan Price. Linebackers Matt Galambos and Nicholas Grigsby play well against both the run and pass. Both can pressure the quarterback on blitzes and Galambos has a pair of interceptions to his credit. This group is not necessarily dominant against the run, as they have allowed 4.5 yards per carry, but Narduzzi is likely to follow Temple’s plan of loading the box to take away C.J. Prosise.

This strategy will put pressure on Pitt’s secondary, which has experienced its share of problems this season. Teams have picked on cornerback Lafayette Pitts, who will start this week after being benched midway through the North Carolina game. Avonte Maddox plays on the other corner and is a steady performer. Strong safety Jordan Whitehead is only a freshman, but he leads the team in tackles.

The key to success for the Panthers this week is the pass rush, which has fallen off lately after a strong start. Pitt has just one sack in its past three games after recording 21 in the first five. This has driven Narduzzi to take additional risks that he would prefer to avoid. “We should be able to play our base defense. I think when you start not trusting your base, then you start to do that [blitz]. Our guys have to play better base defense so you won’t feel like you have to–as I call it–junk it up.”

Conversely, Notre Dame must protect DeShone Kizer, and his receivers must be able to gain separation in single coverage. Kelly must also develop a few options in the red zone that will result in seven points rather than three or even zero. There is less room for Will Fuller to roam free in this limited space, and so far this season there has been a lack of production from tall receivers such as Corey Robinson and also from the tight end position.

PITTSBURGH’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Pitt’s attack has been a source of some frustration to the coaching staff, but there is definitely a lack of game-breaking ability beyond star wide receiver Tyler Boyd. The junior is already the school’s all-time leading receiver with 226 catches, and needs only 49 yards to take over the lead in that category as well. Opposing defenses have been focusing on Boyd of late, limiting his receptions to short gains and taking away the big play. Boyd’s yards per catch have dropped from 16.2 in 2014 to 9.2 this season.

Quarterback Nate Peterman does not have many other viable options, although tight ends J.P. Holtz and Steve Orndoff have been reasonably effective when targeted. Boyd leads the team with 63 receptions while fellow wideout Dontez Ford and Holtz each have only 16. Both Peterman and backup Chad Voytik can run the ball when necessary, so the Irish will need to be cognizant of that threat.

The Panther offensive line is young, which certainly could be part of the problem for Chaney to jumpstart a consistent attack. Center Artie Rowell is the lone senior, and the right side of the line is particularly young. Notre Dame’s Isaac Rochelle and Sheldon Day could once again have productive outings against this group.

The loss of talented running back James Conner earlier this season to injury proved to be costly. Qadree Ollison has been the primary workhorse since taking over, but his numbers have fallen off lately and he has struggled in pass protection. Chris James and Darrin Hall have been more involved in recent weeks, but none has the big play capability of Conner. This has forced Peterman to sustain long scoring marches using short passes and runs with little margin for error.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Panthers have received a boost from their special teams this year. They have blocked four kicks and run successful fake punts in addition to fielding strong coverage units. The Pitt coaches want to create opportunities for Boyd to get the ball in space, so he is the primary return man for both punts and kickoffs. His results are above average. Kicker Chris Blewitt is a veteran with a strong leg, but he can be erratic at times. Punter Ryan Winslow’s stats are about average.

Punter Tyler Newsome has struggled for Notre Dame in recent outings, and Kelly opined this week that it was a technical or mechanical issue. Kicker Justin Yoon has been right down the middle in recent weeks and appears to be headed for a very successful career with the Irish. Return man C.J. Sanders has not had very much room to maneuver in the past few games, but that’s not anything new in the Kelly regime.

SUMMARY

The Panthers will likely begin the game at a high emotional level, but it may not be enough unless they can stop Prosise and hope the Irish continue to bog down in the red zone. Notre Dame’s defense must focus on containing Boyd and maintaining sufficient discipline that they do not turn Pitt’s remaining offensive players, who are average performers, into Heisman candidates with poor tackling and gap discipline.

Things will go more smoothly for the Irish if they can get the running game in gear. Narduzzi must protect his vulnerable secondary, and excessive gambling on his part could lead to big plays for Notre Dame if Kizer is able to read and react quickly. Now that the Irish are aware of their initial playoff seeding and can focus on a successful November, it will be interesting to see if this close-knit group continues to shrug off adversity and maintains its confidence or begins to tighten up by playing not to lose.

Here are a few questions that will weigh into the outcome:

Can Notre Dame get back to running the ball with authority?

Will Pitt’s other receivers and tight ends contribute big plays against the Irish?

Which defense will be able to put heat on the quarterback?

Will the Panther secondary be able to stay with Will Fuller?

Can Notre Dame find a way to convert its red zone opportunities into touchdowns?

Will Pitt try to sneak Dan Marino and Tony Dorsett into its backfield?

Can the Irish finally take control on the road and enjoy an uneventful second half?

Which Assistant Coach will deserve to be coldcocked by his boss?

PREDICTION

These teams do not appear to be close from a talent perspective, but the 4-4 result in the last eight meetings, coupled with Notre Dame’s inability to put away an opponent on the road, leads me to believe we will see another sixty minutes of suspense. The Irish made it through a tough physical challenge against Temple and must be ready to bounce back for their earliest starting time of the season. The final score could easily reflect a three point differential, but I’m going to give Kelly the benefit of the doubt and assume he can find a way to turn one more red zone chance into a touchdown rather than a field goal.

NOTRE DAME 27 PITTSBURGH 20