Notre Dame concludes its home schedule on Saturday as the Fighting Irish host the Wake Forest Demon Deacons from the Atlantic Coast Conference. Up to 31 Irish players will be honored on Senior Day although some with remaining eligibility may yet elect to return next season. Marcus Freeman’s squad stands at 7-3 after a poor performance at Clemson two weeks ago. Despite the extra week of rest, injuries continue to plague Notre Dame, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The game will be televised nationally on NBC beginning at 3:30 PM Eastern time.

Wake Forest Head Coach Dave Clawson is in his 10th season. His team has slumped this year and sits at 4-6. Clawson’s overall record at the school is 63-59. As is the case with Notre Dame, the Deacons’ offense has been a disappointment in 2023 after several years of success. They have scored an average of 15 points in their seven ACC games this season. Slow starts are part of the problem. Wake scored only 26 points in the first quarter in its ten games.

The quarterback position has been in flux as both Michael Kern and Mitch Griffis have failed to take control of the starting job. Both have battled injuries but have not set the world on fire when healthy. Kern is expected to start this week. Of course, most programs would find it difficult to replace Sam Hartman, who came to Notre Dame last winter as a graduate transfer. He set records in Winston-Salem that will likely stand for decades.

Clawson put his relationship with Hartman into perspective this week. “I think the world of Sam,” coach Dave Clawson said. “Quite honestly, it’s hard for me to watch Notre Dame football because that’s the Wake Forest quarterback playing for them. He spent five years here and did a lot for our program. We’re still close.”

Hartman got off to a fast start at Notre Dame this year but his production has fallen off more recently. Several factors are to blame in approximately equal parts. Pass protection breakdowns, injuries and inexperience within the wide receiver corps, and simply poor performances by Hartman in losses to Louisville and Clemson have all contributed to the negative results.

On the injury front, the Irish are unlikely to have wide receivers Jayden Thomas and Deion Colzie available. The offensive line is another area that is impacted. Center Zeke Correll remains in concussion protocol and is questionable for Saturday. Sophomore Ashton Craig will start in that spot over veteran Andrew Kristofec, who is dealing with a high ankle sprain. Guard Rocco Spindler suffered a knee injury (MCL) against Clemson and is lost for the season. He will have surgery this week. Another sophomore, Billy Schrauth, will replace him.

The Deacons leading rusher Demond Claiborne was injured late in last week’s game against NC State. The nature of his ailment is undisclosed and his status for Saturday remains uncertain. Justice Ellison is the likely starter if Claiborne is unable to answer the bell. Donavan Greene, last year’s leading receiver, was lost for the season in August with a knee injury.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. WAKE FOREST’S DEFENSE

Despite their offensive woes, the Deacon’s 4-2-5 defense has kept them competitive in every game except Florida State.  The four starters up front are not massive in size but they are effective. End Jasheen Davis is the best of the group and will be a handful for Notre Dame’s Blake Fisher or Joe Alt when he rushes the passer. Middle linebacker Chase Jones is the only senior among the front six, but he has not played a down this season. A team captain, Jones has been in concussion protocol since August and is not expected to return in 2023. Dylan Hazen and Jacob Roberts have cross-trained at the middle and weak side positions and have performed admirably. This pair leads the team in tackles and makes numerous plays behind the line of scrimmage.

The secondary has performed well overall. Caelen Carson is a shutdown corner while safety Malik Mustapha is a physical force. Another cornerback, DeShawn Jones, leads the team with three interceptions. It’s no secret that Notre Dame wants to run the ball, so Wake’s objective will be to lock down the Irish receivers in man coverage while bringing extra bodies into the run gaps. Hartman and his receivers were unable to defeat this strategy in losses to Louisville and Clemson, and barely escaped against Duke. The situation is even more dire this week with the mounting injuries to Irish wideouts and tight ends.

Hartman will have an advantage of sorts after practicing against this defense for several seasons. His receivers must still get open, however, and the line must execute better in the running game. Craig and Schrauth are new to the starting lineup and will be in the spotlight.

Notre Dame will need help from its defense and special teams in order to score points. Strong efforts by these units will enable the hosts to enjoy better field position and dominate time of possession. These factors will take a toll on the Deacon defenders and enable the Irish rushing attack led by Audric Estime to take over the game.

WAKE FOREST’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Griffis won the starting job at quarterback this season but struggled against conference opponents. Kern came in last month and started two games before going down with a shoulder injury. He returned to the lineup last week in a relief role when Griffis failed to record a first down against the Wolfpack in the first 20 minutes of action. Griffis is the better runner but Wake’s offensive staff believes Kern is more consistent from the pocket.

Clawson is known for the slow mesh attack that enables the quarterback to hold the ball until he spots a weakness in the defense. To combat this approach, Notre Dame’s linebackers must not overcommit and the defensive backs must stay with their man for a second or two longer. This was a very productive offense with Hartman at the helm but injuries and quarterback woes have led to a disappointing season in 2023.

Kern is a 58% passer who has relied on short throws to maintain possession. Taylor Morin and Ke’Shawn Williams are smallish but quick receivers while 6’4” Jahmal Banks is the top target. Tight end Cameron Hite is a good athlete but has only 12 receptions.

The line has been largely ineffective in both run and pass blocking. Wake has gained only 3.25 yards per rush and surrendered a whopping 43 sacks, which ranks 128^th out of 130 nationally. Notre Dame has allowed only 14. It is easy to see why the Deacons have not been able to develop a deep passing game. Look for the Irish secondary to play aggressively against the short pass in search of an interception or two.

If the Irish are able to win up front, it will be difficult for the visitors to sustain drives and put points on the board. Third and long situations have been especially problematic for the Deacons. The team has a 33% conversion rate, which is #113 ^th.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker Matt Dennis has missed his last three field goal attempts. To date, he has converted only one attempt greater than 40 yards. Punter Ivan Mora has a pedestrian 41-yard average but he is adept at putting the ball inside the 20 and allows very few return yards. Morin is a capable punt returner while Claiborne’s absence would remove a serious threat on kickoff returns. He has a 96-yard touchdown to his credit.

Notre Dame has used the bye week to analyze its successes and failures in the return game this season. Hopefully a few answers emerged since both units have a long touchdown to their credit and would like to provide an encore. Coach Marty Biagi also challenged punter Bryce McFerson to be more consistent in launching his kicks higher and deeper. Kicker Spencer Shrader has looked solid in recent games and the Irish definitely enjoy an advantage this week in that department.

SUMMARY

Another week off would normally help Notre Dame’ struggling offense but the continuing spate of injuries up front and among the receiving corps serve to lower expectations for a breakthrough performance. Execution in the running game is paramount for the team to regain confidence. While Craig and Schrauth will be tested, the Irish also need improvement from incumbent starters Pat Coogan and Blake Fisher. The final piece of the offensive puzzle is Hartman. After a poor performance at Clemson, he must respond with better accuracy and decision-making.

Defensively, Notre Dame should dominate the Deacons. Kern won’t beat the Irish by running the ball and the slow mesh attack can be contained if the linebackers stay in their gaps. The likelihood of turnovers also favors Notre Dame. Wake has committed 20 this year compared to 12 for the Irish. Only three of that dozen occurred at home.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Will either team be able to run the ball effectively?
• Can the remaining Irish receivers get open against the Deacon secondary?
• Which team will have a higher conversion rate on third down?
• Can Notre Dame’s defense continue to force turnovers?
• Which offensive line will best protect the quarterback?
• Will either special teams unit provide a field position advantage?
• Can Hartman regain his poise against his old team and not force his throws?
• Will Xavier Watts provide another power surge?

PREDICTION

I expect a close game early as the offenses struggle to sustain drives. Notre Dame’s speed and aggressiveness on defense will cause major headaches for Wake Forest, however, and eventually the Deacon’s will wear down from the strain. The Irish should take control in the second half and win going away.

NOTRE DAME 30  WAKE FOREST 7

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