Notre Dame and Michigan will battle on Saturday in a game featuring teams that desperately want to regain national prominence, especially at the other’s expense. The Wolverines, who are in their third year under Rich Rodriguez, made a strong statement by defeating UConn last week after two forgettable seasons had created significant unrest in Ann Arbor. Meanwhile, the Irish defeated Purdue with a performance that raised overall expectations but also highlighted a few concerns in head coach Brian Kelly’s debut.

Michigan won last year’s contest 38-34 as Tate Forcier burned Notre Dame with a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns, the last one coming on a five yard pass with 11 seconds remaining. The elusive and talented Denard Robinson won the quarterback job this fall, and he put up Heisman-like numbers last week with a dazzling mix of runs and short passes. The Irish will counter with an improved defense and a balanced offense that provides quarterback Dayne Crist with a variety of weapons.

The revamped Notre Dame 3-4 defense will be tested by Robinson’s breakaway capability. Containment and tackling prowess are the keys for the Irish if they are going to win this game, and both must improve from the performance level turned in against the slower and more conventional Boilermaker offense. Offensively, Notre Dame must continue to run the ball effectively while Crist needs to be more decisive in the pocket.

The implications of the game loom large for both teams. While the Big-10 conference schedule lies ahead for the Wolverines, a victory on the road Saturday will provide a confidence boost that should carry them to their next real test in mid-October. Notre Dame’s early schedule is less forgiving, but Kelly knows that a win will send a message to opponents and recruits that a sleeping giant has finally awakened. Michigan may have more to lose at this stage, since Rodriguez’ seat is growing increasingly warm as he enters his third season with an 8-16 record.

Notre Dame’s Offense against Michigan’s Defense

The Irish will prepare to attack the unusual 3-3-5 defensive alignment employed by the Wolverines. Nose tackle Mike Martin is the anchor of the interior while versatile sophomore outside linebacker Craig Roh is deployed in multiple locations and is the team’s best pass rusher. James Mouton and Obi Ezeh are veteran run-stuffing linebackers, but a five-man secondary that lacks experienced playmakers keeps Coach Rich Rodriguez awake at night.

Dayne Crist’s talented receivers should be able to get open, so Michigan is likely to bring a variety of blitzes to confuse the Irish quarterback. The strategy will be to disrupt the timing in a passing game that is still very much a work in progress.

Notre Dame showcased a productive running game last week and must continue to mix it up throughout the day. That means the hosts cannot afford to dig themselves a hole on the scoreboard and rely solely on Crist to bring them back. Michigan’s front six performed well in the first half last week against UConn, but surrendered a lot of yardage in the second half when fatigue set in. Only self-inflicted mistakes by the Huskies prevented the game from becoming a nail-biter. Still, that is what typically happens when a team falls behind early and has little margin for error later. The Irish will need to keep pounding at the line of scrimmage and reap the benefits to prevail in what should be a tight contest.

Michigan’s Offense against Notre Dame’s Defense

Quarterback Denard Robinson put up Heisman quality numbers last week by running and passing for nearly 400 yards. The most sobering statistic for Irish fans was not the 197 rushing yards, but rather his 19 of 22 passing performance. Although Robinson is by far the greatest threat to Notre Dame’s defense, Michigan’s overall speed exceeds that of Purdue and will place additional pressure on the Irish to remain disciplined in their gaps and tackle well.

While the skill position players score the points and get the headlines, the key matchup in this game will be the Wolverine offensive line against Notre Dame’s rejuvenated front seven. The Irish held up well last week despite a ten minute deficit in time of possession, and they will be called upon again to remain stout while chasing the elusive Robinson all afternoon. Fifth year stalwarts Steve Schilling and Perry Dorrestein lead the Michigan forward wall.

It will also be interesting to see whether the Irish defensive staff employs linebacker Manti Te’o as a spy on Robinson during the game, or if they simply rely on execution of assignment football to bottle up the Wolverines. Regardless of the strategy, missed tackles will carry a high price for Notre Dame.

Robinson is not a one-man show, but he is clearly the focus of Rodriguez’ offense. The Irish cornerbacks need to be able to contain Michigan’s stable of receivers such as Stonum, Kelvin Grady, Terrance Robinson and Martavious Odoms. Tight coverage and sure tackling were in evidence by Notre Dame’s secondary against Purdue, and more of the same will be needed to defend the smaller but quicker Wolverine receivers.

Special Teams

David Ruffer provided a pleasant surprise to Irish fans by turning in a solid performance in the kicking game. His field goals were accurate and drilled with authority, and he may be called upon in a game-winning situation this week. Michigan counters with Brendan Gibbons, who has the requisite leg strength but has yet to demonstrate a high level of consistency.

The Irish appear to have an advantage in the return game based upon the respective opening game results. Armando Allen and Cierre Wood have breakaway capability, but it was Michigan who hurt Notre Dame last year when Darryl Stonum raced 94 yards for a touchdown in a 38-34 victory. Field position will be important in this game and the performance of these units could significantly impact the outcome.

Summary

This is a rivalry game that both teams desperately want and expect to win. Crist and his receivers will be most effective if he is not forced into third and long situations, so there will be pressure on Notre Dame to establish the run against Martin and company from the outset. That may be a tall order, but the Irish must meet these physical challenges if they are to have a successful season.

Certain pundits stated in the preseason that Notre Dame’s defense lacked speed. Although the Irish did not look slow in last week’s debut, Michigan’s offense will provide more conclusive data to support or debunk this theory. While Robinson caught UConn by surprise with a remarkable opening act, he will be a marked man in Notre Dame Stadium and the Wolverine press corps may have to dial back the Heisman hype at the end of the day.

Here are a few key questions that will determine the outcome:

Will the Wolverines wear down the Irish defense by winning the time of possession?

Can Notre Dame’s offensive line help generate 150 rush yards?

Will Crist have the time and poise in passing situations to move the chains?

Which special team will make a game-changing play?

Can Robinson approach last week’s passing performance?

Will Notre Dame be hurt by missed tackles and Robinson’s scrambling ability?

Will the Irish receivers dominate Michigan’s weak secondary?

Prediction

The game may come down to a field goal late the fourth quarter, as neither team is likely to dominate. Notre Dame must be prepared for Michigan’s speed from the outset while putting up points of its own. Turnovers and penalties will weigh heavily on the outcome, but I see this as a chess match between coaching staffs. Kelly has developed a reputation for preparedness, and this game presents an opportunity for him to make his own statement to an Irish fan base that is starved for meaningful victories.

Meanwhile, Rodriguez is fighting for his job and finally has the pieces in place to run his style of offense. His defense is shaky, however, and the Irish will need only competent rather than heroic performances from Crist and the offensive line to prevail.

Notre Dame 27 Michigan 24