Notre Dame travels to the New Jersey Meadowlands on Saturday for a neutral site game against Navy in a brand new stadium. Ken Niumatalolo’s team is 4-2 on the season after erasing a 14-point halftime deficit in last week’s win over SMU. The Midshipmen have beaten the Irish in two of the last three contests, with both victories coming on Irish home turf. Brian Kelly’s squad is hoping to maintain its perfect record in October and continue to improve toward a strong finish to the regular season.

The Irish received bad news this week when it was learned that slot receiver Theo Riddick will miss 4-6 weeks due to an ankle injury. This follows last week’s announcement that tight end Kyle Rudolph is out for the rest of the season with a torn hamstring. While Tyler Eifert filled in well for Rudolph last week, Riddick’s absence means that John Goodman and Duval Kamara will have to pick up the slack. The good news is that top receiver Michael Floyd will play despite his own balky hamstring.

One would expect Notre Dame to emphasize the ground attack this week given the undersized Navy defense and the lack of familiar wide receivers for quarterback Dayne Crist. The Irish generated positive rushing yardage in the second half against Western Michigan, but it remains to be seen how much Kelly will rely on a running game that has been largely disappointing.

This contrasts with Navy’s typical approach to offensive football, the triple option, where more than 80% of their plays are rushes. Although the Middies effectively plug new players into their system each year without missing a beat, this year’s edition is not quite as explosive or productive as in the recent past. The exception is quarterback Ricky Dobbs, but his supporting cast and offensive line is only average by Navy’s typical standard.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. NAVY’S DEFENSE

The defense has been a strength for the Midshipmen this season, particularly against the pass. The team has forced 13 turnovers in six games and has allowed an impressive 35% conversion rate on third down. Returning stalwarts Jabaree Tuani and Chase Burge anchor the line in Navy’s 3-4 configuration, while four new starters at linebacker have performed extremely well. This group is relatively small, but they have made a notable number of plays behind the line of scrimmage. Outside backer Aaron McCauley and inside man Tyler Simmons are the best of the group.

The secondary is a solid veteran group led by rover Wyatt Middleton and cornerback Kevin Edwards. One key to the game for Notre Dame’s offense will be pass protection. Crist will need time in the pocket to find an open receiver, which may be more difficult without Riddick and Rudolph. T.J. Jones will move into the slot for Riddick, and he may be the featured target this week as Floyd’s injury may force him to become more of a decoy.

As was the case last week, Notre Dame will probably rely on the pass early to build a lead before utilizing the running game later. This strategy makes it imperative that the Irish have productive drives in the first 30 minutes while the defense settles in against the option attack. The ability to convert on third down will be an indicator of success or failure. A halftime deficit will not be a good sign for Notre Dame.

When the Irish run the ball, expect Kelly to utilize all of his tailbacks. Armando Allen is not at 100% due to a hip injury, but Cierre Wood and Robert Hughes have performed well of late when called upon. Wood’s speed can be a weapon if his blockers can get him around the corner, while running Hughes inside should work very well against the smaller Navy linebackers.

NAVY’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

The Midshipmen have run the ball for 259 yards per game, but they have steadily declined from the high water mark of 349 yards in 2007. The most obvious factors this year are four new starters on the offensive line and an overall lack of speed. While Dobbs is as good as any recent Navy option quarterback, this year’s team lacks a supporting cast of explosive players. Slot men Gee Gee Green, Andre Byrd and Aaron Santiago have not produced many long runs, but poor blocking may be to blame.

Left tackle Jeff Battipaglia is the only returning starter from last year’s front now that right tackle Matt Molloy is out for the season after suffering multiple concussions. The interior linemen have not created much room for Dobbs, who averages under three yards per carry, and fullbacks Vince Murray and Alexander Teich. The Irish were unable to stop the fullback dive last year, as this pair averaged 11 yards per attempt.

Nose tackle Ian Williams and the rest of the Notre Dame defense should be able to shut down the inside running game this year. If they can force Dobbs to the outside, the Middies don’t appear to have the speed to consistently beat them to the edge. Navy is unlikely to abandon the run entirely, but Dobbs is only a 50% passer and his throws are much more effective when he can use the element of surprise.

The Irish must remain disciplined in their assignments, avoid missed tackles and expect the Midshipmen to run reverses and play-action passes. The deep threat receivers are Green and Greg Jones, who burned Notre Dame for a 52-yard touchdown last season. Ideally, Notre Dame must make Navy earn every yard and force them to march 75 yards to score. Although the Navy ball carriers have lost only two fumbles this season, their offensive line is not good enough to push the Irish up and down the field.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Midshipmen have a concern at kicker, where starter Joe Buckley may be unable to go on Saturday. Jon Teague would take his place on field goals and extra points. Kyle Delahooke returns as the team’s punter, but with an average of only 37 yards. Teich, who is hardly a speedster, is the primary kick return man, while Gary Myers does a fair job on punts.

Navy does not cover kicks extremely well, which may open the door for Notre Dame’s Goodman or Bennett Jackson to break one. Riddick’s injury means that freshmen Austin Collinsworth or Daniel Smith will join Jackson on kickoff return duty. David Ruffer gives the Irish a distinct advantage in the field goal department, both in range and accuracy.

SUMMARY

Multiple turnovers deep in enemy territory cost Notre Dame a victory last season, and that is something the depleted Irish offense can ill afford this week. Navy’s defense is improved this year, but the offense is not as proficient or dangerous. These factors point to a relatively low scoring game. Both teams will strive to get out to an early lead and force mistakes from the opponent.

The Irish players are on fall break this week, which has enabled Crist and his receivers to spend additional time in preparation for the game. If Floyd is unable to run effectively, the other receivers will face a challenge in compensating for the loss of three starters. Kelly has elected to rely on his passing game at the expense of developing an effective running attack, and this approach could backfire if the players who start on Saturday are not a cohesive unit.

Let’s review the key questions that will have a bearing on the outcome:

Will Navy be able to exert any pressure on Crist in the pocket?

Can the Irish convert on third down at a higher rate than their 38% season average?

Will Notre Dame stop the inside runs by the fullback that set up the rest of Navy’s option offense?

Can Navy surprise the Irish with big plays from play-action or other assorted trickery?

Will TJ Jones be a difference maker in his debut as the slot receiver for the injured Riddick?

Can the Irish run downhill in the second half against the smaller Midshipmen?

Which team will be hurt by turnovers?

Will Notre Dame’s special teams provide an advantage?

PREDICTION

Notre Dame’s defense should be able to limit Navy’s ability to score such that the injury riddled offense will not be forced to carry the load. The game may be closer than Irish fans desire, but the Midshipmen don’t have the horses to pull off yet another upset.

NOTRE DAME 23 NAVY 14