(The Rock Report) – Everything is on the line this year for Charlie Weis.

He is at a career tipping point.

If Charlie loses more than three games during the season and fails to make a BCS game, chances are, he’s out. If he loses three games and the Irish are whacked again by USC, chances are, Charlie’s out. Swarbrick has communicated to many that Charlie must get it right this year.

But…

If Weis can put the pieces together, if he can figure out the leadership puzzle, Charlie’s set up for a four year run.

So, what to think?

On one hand: two of the worst back to back seasons in Notre Dame history, an abysmal running attack, absurd assistant turnover and two classes that weren’t in the top 20 (and another vastly overrated class.)

And on the other hand: back to back BCS berths, record breaking offensive performance, recruiting that has blown open the myth that Notre Dame can’t recruit anymore (witness the Te’o commitment) and assistant changes that rectify Notre Dame’s biggest weakness.

The only reasonable answer I’ve seen is that Charlie has, so far, failed to show he’s capable of leading the Irish to the promised land and until that changes it’s hard to give him the benefit of the doubt. That doesn’t mean he can’t do it or you should support him, but he hasn’t shown it and by your fifth year, even on a rebuilding project, hard work has to be translated into performance. On the positive side, Charlie’s shown that he can change.

But, as detailed in an earlier column, the disturbing thing is that Charlie’s still guessing. He doesn’t know.

From the island of disbelief: Charlie just recently discovered that Notre Dame’s running game is a problem? His line about doing some research about Notre Dame’s struggles running the ball makes you wonder how the hell he made it this long. Props to TreeD who first put the running game problem into the numbers that Charlie’s talking about.

Still, there seems to be greater awareness on Weis’s part.

Near death experiences, as in a new AD who didn’t hire you and contemplated and possibly advocated for your dismissal are illuminating.

The question is whether Charlie can move from rhetoric to action and finally move from a coach learning on the job to leader.

The odds are ag’n it, but there’s hope in words and deeds and the talent level is finally both old enough and at a high enough level that he’s set up to win.

This year there are truly no excuses and a lot of reasons to expect a radically better offense than the one that put up 22 points a game before Hawaii… I can’t even remember the 2007 number.

Looking across the offensive line, there’s zero excuse for Notre Dame to continue its recent history of sucking. First off, the staff deserves credit for plugging the gaping “sack hole” that opened up on the offensive line the last two years. Pass protection was the best we’ve seen under Weis. Second, the offensive line is now a bunch of seniors and Verducci is known for being a stickler for fundamentals and is also responsible for the running game. On the surface that looks promising. The worry is that it’s a move that absolves Charlie from responsibility if the running game falters again. Still, with a new coach coming in and a talented and senior offensive line, this year will show whether the problem was Weis and his schemes or a disconnect with Latina. The Irish also have a lot of highly recruited talent in the pipeline and will return three off this line to start next season.

Our Tight End situation will be good to very good with the possibility of becoming excellent with the addition of Mike Ragone. Ragone and Rudolph form the most athletic tight end combination in the country. Both have three years of eligibility remaining.

Our wide receiver situation is the healthiest I’ve seen it since I’ve been following Notre Dame football. Floyd and Tate are a fantastic combination. Kamara, despite a dip in performance, will be just a Junior this year. For perspective, Stovall didn’t really emerge until his senior season. Walker, Goodman and Evans all have speed and size. Keep an eye on Cierre Wood who could become a Tim Brown/Ricky Waters type player in the slot. Tate has two years left, Floyd three, Goodman, Evans, Walker and Wood, four.

Clausen is a puzzle. When he has protection and confidence, he’s as good as any quarterback in the country. When he doesn’t, he’s borderline at best. But again, he’s still a sophomore and compared to other high profile sophomores, Clausen’s improvement has been far above average. Much of Clausen’s negatives go away if Notre Dame runs the ball more effectively. Clausen has two years remaining, Crist has four(edit).

I think Armando Allen has a chance to be a markedly better back this year on a unit that is deep in talent. The puzzling thing about Allen is that for all of his speed, he rarely breaks big runs. He also needs a Walter Payton lesson in patience. But the Hawaii game gave me hope. Both on his kickoff return and on his screens, Allen was decisive and showed very good explosiveness. His acceleration after five yards was Bush like. After Allen, I’m starting to think Jonas Gray
will emerge as he has the most big play capability of anyone in that current group. Gray has surprising speed (he was timed at 4.3 a the Michigan camp) for a big back. I like Hughes as well, but his running style seems to have some limitations compared to Gray and Allen and I’d love to see him get some reps at fullback where I think the Irish with Paskorz will be better by addition through subtraction. Allen has two years remaining, Gray has three and Wood and Riddick have four.

In sum, there’s no excuse for this offense not to put up over 30 points a game as Weis’s first two offenses did. The big question in my mind is whether Weis will continue to gameplan for a level of execution that isn’t grounded in reality. His history of scheming one on one match-ups hasn’t played out well in college without a high level of execution that may or may not be attainable.

Our defense is very young on the front seven. We’re, perhaps, as talented as we’ve ever been in terms of potential, but it’s likely our front seven will be littered with sophomores and possibly freshmen. Te’o and Stockton could both see time this year and Motta could find his way into the mix.

Our starting linebacker corps will be in place for two years at a minimum. If Teo can wrestle the starting job away from Smith, we’ll have the same starting linebacking group for three straight years.

Ethan Johnson will be one of the best defensive linemen to come out of Notre Dame in recent memory. And that says a lot with Laws, Tuck and Abiamiri all playing in the NFL. Ian Williams and Kapron Lewis-Moore also have potential and Hafis Williams has impressed many insiders early on. Again, we’ll have our starting defensive line for at least two more years. Williams, Stockton, Newman and Lewis-Moore all have four years remaining. Five-star defensive end Chris Martin enrolls next January.

We have a lot of bodies and a lot of potential, but without the experience (and you need time to physically mature) our front seven is a question mark in the short-term, but looks strong in the long-term.

Our back four is not a question mark. Walls was the most talented player on the team two years ago even over Laws, IMO. Walls, Gray, Blanton, McNeil, McCarthy, Brown, Slaughter, etc. represent Notre Dame’s best backfield since early 1990. This is one unit Weis needs to recruit aggressively in ’09 after landing just one recruit in the most recent class.

After much deserved criticism in 2007, most of our special teams improved in 2008. Walker even turned into a very good kicker after he straightened out his setup. Charlie has locked up the long term health of our kicking game by landing Turk and Tausch.

Overall, this team is a BCS caliber team in terms of talent. If Charlie can get us there this year, the future is promising from a program perspective. Notre Dame’s #1 class last year could be matched by this upcoming class, which already has two five star commitments (two more than Willingham’s last two classes combined) with a few more possible. If Charlie can figure it out and land another number one class, Notre Dame will have as much talent as any team in the country.

For Charlie, it all rides on this year. Lose and he’ll be out. Win and he could be here for a long time.

There’s no room for error.

It’s all about winning.