Notre Dame Football Preseason Analysis: Maturity, Depth, Talent and Tenure (Part I)

(The Rock Report | Notre Dame Football) – Notre Dame Football enters the 2011 season with one its most talented (from a recruited standpoint) and mature teams since the Lou Holtz era. The projected starters, on average, have had 3.5 years to grow physically and mentally, are now in their second year of a new system without a staff change-over and have an average star ranking of 3.97 (more fuel to the star theory.)

Maturity

Teams that surprise onlookers, like Stanford’s team last year or Boston College’s season a few years back, are usually laden with upperclassmen that needed time to grow physically and mentally.  Kids have so much maturing to do when they get to college that they usually don’t hit their full potential until their Junior years (ball park analysis from a few years back shows that most potential was realized during their junior years, when 4-stars started playing like 4-stars.) Listening to players like Cierre Wood and their coaches, you can hear both sides talking about how they are now focused on the small things that lead to big dividends (like the right read of a hole.)  All things equal, I’ll take teams full of seasoned players like Stanford last year, over talented, but young teams like Florida and Texas last year.  If you look up and down ND’s roster this year, it’s very hard to find the term, “sophomore”.  A good example of physical maturity is  Ethan Johnson who finished the 2009 season at 265 pounds, but finished the 2010 season 30 pounds heavier (also due to good weight training and the training table.)  Notre Dame’s offensive and defensive lines will both average well over 300 pounds (and are in shape).  I don’t remember that ever being the case at “Notra” Dame.

Offense LT LG C RG RT WR FL SE RB QB TE Average
Years 3 5 4 4 5 2 4 3 3 4 3 3.64
Defense DE1 NG DE OLB ILB ILB OLB CB1 CB2 FS SS Average
Years 4 4 4 2 3 3 4 5 4 3 5 3.7

*Thanks to JR for the data.

Depth

Three things stood out to me in terms of depth and reading about the accounts of the fall practice:

  1. We have a third string OL full of scholarship players who were recruited for that position.
  2. We have a third string DL full of scholarship players who were recruited for that position.
  3. Running back is the biggest depth concern on the team.

Our defensive and offensive lines were “woefully” under-recruited over the Weis and Willingham eras. So to read that a line three deep is full of scholarship players who were actually recruited to play the position  (and not moved out of necessity) while a seemingly small point, warms the cockles of my line control heart.  As Lou said (bad paraphrase) “you can tell how good the team is going to be by how good the offensive line looks.”  This also points out a Holtz weakness; very uneven defensive performance.  On the third point, if your biggest concern is a position where the top two starters were both top 100 recruits, top 10 running back recruits and have both had three years to mature.  Gray was Rivals #4 back who ran a laser timed 4.44 at the Nike Camp and a laser timed 4.37 at the Michigan camp.  Wood was an all-everything back. Both were behind Armando Allen and received relatively few reps compared to Allen.   While not perfect or enviable, if that’s your worst position on the field, and it has two  upper-class highly recruited players on the two-deep, life isn’t that bad.  Now add George Atkinson to the mix who was a highly productive, highly recruited running back recruit with 10.59 speed and has been impressive in practice and Cam McDaniel who strikes me as a very sound player and the biggest concern on the field needs to evaluated within context.  Most teams would love to have this problem and this is Notre Dame’s biggest worry?

Talent

Not much to say here, except that the “recruited talent” is abundant.  Across the starting lines, Notre Dame’s starters average a star rating of 3.975.   Now you can argue over whether it’s been over-rated or under-utilized, but for the most part I’ve felt that analysts have under-rated Notre Dame after 15 years of losing.  3-star players like Zach Martin and Tyler Eifert are among the best players on the team.

Offense LT LG C RG RT WR FL SE RB QB TE Average
Stars 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 4.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 3.95
Defense DE1 NG DE OLB ILB ILB OLB CB1 CB2 FS SS Average
Stars 3.5 4.0 4.5 3.5 5.0 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.00

Tenure

Notre Dame actually made it through an entire season without changing the staff over. As I wrote in “On the Job Training” in 2008, Weis lacked steadiness, was constantly changing direction and was in danger of losing to Syracuse and Navy, which unfortunately turned out to be true.  Kelly has stuck to his plan in the face of withering criticism, kept on his message and kept his staff focused.  As noted early on, it’s not by happen stance.  Kelly selected his staff to be able to stay on point and on message.  Where a top “name” defensive coordinator might have made fans feel better, Kelly’s philosophy is more about consistency ( see Kelly Coaching the Coaches ).  I clearly wasn’t a fan of two inexperienced coordinators, but Kelly made a trade-off that could pay dividends in 2011 or could highlight a philosophical problem.   That the entire staff returns to teach the same message a second year in a row, is a seldom thought about advantage. As noted in “Fixing Notre Dame Football” Kelly and Swarbrick have moved aggressively to fix long-standing issues with the program. Part II will focus on position analysis.

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24 thoughts on “Notre Dame Football Preseason Analysis: Maturity, Depth, Talent and Tenure (Part I)

  1. Scranton Dave says:

    Great article, and I am really excited about this team. I also think Crist ( and hopefully he gets the job) makes a big leap forward this year! Even in 2006, my gut told me the team was going to disappoint, and it did. With this team, the trajectory is upward, I’ll say 10-2 but better is within reach!

  2. Nice article. I know reading tons of articles 3 weeks prior to a football season is kind of a waste of time (this could be the year…) but this type of reporting brings me back. Thanks. I am wildly optimistic although years of disappointment has conditioned me to keep an eye on the approach of doom.

    10 wins or bust!

  3. I also like this intangible: players showing more character and far less swagger. Kelly has the players saying all the right things. I have high hopes they’ll follow up their words and do the right things this season.

  4. A team ranked 16th, and as high as 6th, could on a given day beat any other team in the country. And ND may have the added benefit of taking some teams by surprise. There are so many variables: injuries, morale, weather, the condition of the players and their opponents after the banging up in their previous games, kids that are “on” or “off” that day . . . . Skill and preparation are often overbalanced by “inches” and luck. Everybody’s saying eight or nine or ten victories because none of us wants to be thought foolishly optimistic. But the truth is that–hey! It isn’t a round ball–almost anything is possible: we could win every game this year, or we could lose five or six. So, until things go the other way, I’m looking for an unbeaten season. Of course it’s unlikely it will wind up that way, but it doesn’t hurt and it often helps to believe, as St. Paul says, in things not seen.

    • I am as anxious as you are to see these guys play but I don’t think they are going to surprise anyone.

  5. I have been a ND fan since the days of Hanratty and Seymour ( RIP ) . A lot of highs and lows. Have not been this excited since Lou. GO IRISH !

  6. The team is NOT “3 deep with scholarship players recruited for the position at OL.”

    That’s by far the most overlooked weakness on this team.

    Heggie was a DE.

    And without true freshmen, there isn’t even a complete 2 deep right now.

    Seems silly to me that me is even competing for a starting spot at LG, because he’s probably the only guy capable of backing up three different positions until Nichols gets back.

    • Kelly, when he was recruited, mentioned OL. Heggie was recruited as a power player. He spent a year on the DL, but as many of us speculated at the time he was destined for the OL. Certain players like Lynch and Tuitt are pure defensive power players, but Heggie (as I wrote when he was recruited) was an OL. “OL – Good. The development of Nichols will be interesting to watch. James and Lombard are very good. I’ll bet Heggie ends up here.”

      https://ndnation.com/archives/28

      If you want to be specific about “recruited as an OL and an OL only” then technically you are correct. Kelly doesn’t recruit that way, though. Compare our DL and OL to three years ago and you will see the point.

      • My main point is not about which position Heggie was recruited to play.

        What I’m trying to get across is that O-line depth is a huge concern to me, but seemingly not to anybody else. For the article to make an impression that they’re fully loaded is ridiculous.

        I don’t care how Kelly tried to spin it, there weren’t enough bodies for two proper squads in the spring game. That’s dangerous, and nobody showing up this fall alleviates that.

        I mean, what do we know about the depth? Lombard looks good, Nichols is big, Nuss has bounced around to every position, Golic just might live up to his D-1 scholarship, and…oh, that’s it.

        • No one said or intimated “fully loaded.” ND has 7 guys who they believe can start. After that it gets thin. The starting five will be as old and as experienced as any in the country. Again, the difference between today and a few years ago is the point.

          • In 2005 Notre Dame had the most experinced returning OL in school history…and no depth. So what’s the difference exactly? They still need to get 4 OL recruits this year and probably 4 the next before I’m convinced the roster has been stabilized.

            Talking about three deep of whatever makes a distinct impression which is what I carefully said. That impression is misleading if not completely false.

          • No one said or intimated “fully loaded”. No one said or intimated a “stabilized roster.” You’re arguing with yourself. What was written is that for the first time since Willingham, we go three units deep with scholarship players on the OL.

            However, for 2011, we’re in very good shape with 7 players available to start now… possibly more as the youngins develop.

            I’m very worried of a drop off after this year. But this year, the OL should be a strength.

  7. Enjoyed the article,the main thing being these kids or young men seem to be team minded and this will carry far. I go back to terry brennan and continue to be proud of Notre Dame for all the right things.

  8. Great article.

    With 5 stars assigned to the QB position, you obviously have a strong opinion on who will emerge from the QB competition as the starter.

  9. Scranton Dave says:

    Wow Stephen, you really see OL as a problem? For next year, dont forget FSU transfer Prestwood to go along with guys like Lombard and Hegarty. My main concern is at CB if Gray or Blanton gets hurt this year, and next year we will be very young there.

    • Forget about next year.

      Q: How many players with meaningful game experience are backing up FIVE crucial positions?
      A: One.

      Q: If Cave gets hurt and they got to Stanford with Golic starting at center, what do you suppose will happen to whoever is named the QB?
      A: Stanford’s defensive pressure killed the Irish last year.

      Q: How enviable is it to have a redshirt freshman backing left tackle and missing the almost all of fall camp?
      A: Rhetorical.

      Q: If even one of Robinson, Watt, Nuss goes down, how does whoever’s left standing take even one snap off for the rest of the season?
      A: Get ready to start burning eligibility.

      • It’s clear that no one can convince you that OL depth is not a concern. Just as you will not be able to convince some of us that we need to be concerned about it. However, I think that’s OK because you seem to be concerned enough for the rest of us.

        When you start saying things like “if player X goes down we’ll have to use a freshman or redshirt freshman”, then you really grasping at straws. There are very few teams (if any) in the country that have the luxury of upperclassmen 2 deeps. Injuries happen, and often they result in playing inexperienced players. That is football. Additionally, you were incorrect in saying that we do not have a two deep without true freshmen:

        Martin, Nuss, Cave, Robinson, Dever, Nichols, Watt, Golic, Heggie, and Lombard.

        That’s 10 guys, just enough for a two deep, even after the season ending injury to Clelland. Then we have an entire set of true freshman reserves:

        Prestwood, Hegarty, Carrico, Hanratty, and Martin

        Maybe I’m just used to the Bob Weisingham era(s), but that depth chart allows me to rest easy.

  10. Hi,
    I go all the way to Joe Kuharick’s days (and Lamonica-to-Kelly bombs), and one year later: Huarte-to-Snow. Quite along with the nine victories of 1964 (out of ten games), what stood out about the team was PRECISE EXECUTION. It was a lesson in discipline (and art) to see those guys perform with such precision and certainty on each and every snap…no wasted motions. Every move had a purpose and the desired result! It was pure joy to watch the first Parseghian team, the same individuals, redeeming themselves from the previous three years’ disasters (where they would even show ugly bickering and grandstanding moving from the huddle to the formation). That was true resurrection from the ashes.

  11. So you are a 5 star DB or offensive lineman and you have ND on your radar. You look at the ND roster and see there is a good chance you start right away. Manti, Sam Young, Rudolph, ec have all started as Froshmen

  12. Like in the movie the Replacements… Whats it gonna take to win???? Gene Hackman says…Heart….Miles and Miles of HEART!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Irish beat the shit out of em all, don’t stop putting up points let the defense put up points run a punt return back for a few TD’s!!!!! Step on the gridiron and I will be there cheering for ya the whole way. Win, Lose your my team, and I will scream and shout for ya!!! I bleed Blue and Gold…..