(The Rock Report | Notre Dame Football News) – As highlighted in Part I, Maturity, Depth, Talent and Tenure the Irish enter into 2011 with as strong a front line base of talent and maturity as any team since the Lou Holtz era, but that is only part of the picture.  Potential is a dicey word that causes many eager fans to think of the best case scenario as probable, which inevitably leads to an “expectation gap” when the team actually plays.

In the Position Analysis survey of some 1700 NDNation fans, NDNation expects only five units on the team to play at a top 20 level in 2011, wide receiver, kicker, linebacker, tight end and defensive line.  No unit is “expected” to perform at a championship level.  The Probability Poll (started in 2007)  was begun to take some of the noise of the pre-season optimism out of the air.  The position analysis, similarly, seeks to wring out some of that noise by focusing not on team expectation, but position expectation in expected, best case and worst case scenarios.  Here, the news is somewhat sobering. The units, on average, are expected to perform in the mid-20s range, which is far out of alignment with Notre Dame’s preseason poll standing.  The short synopsis is this: Kelly will have to get each position functioning on a much higher level to extract their recruited potential.

• The “at risk” positions (where the worst case scenario is out of the top 30) are offensive line, quarterback, defensive back, running back, punter and punt/kickoff return(lowest across the boards.)
• The “sure things” are wide receiver, kicker, linebacker and tight end.
• People are most uncertain about running back and quarterback (the biggest spread between best and worst case scenario) and the most certain about kicker and tight end.

This simple methodology was developed by a German Bank to do short cut scenario planning, but what the heck, ND football is just has hard to predict. That’s the over view, here’s the under view (with a big thanks to John Ruddy on the star and tenure analysis) beginning with offense:

Overall: Kelly has said he put the team on Dayne’s shoulders last year and used a throw it up against the wall to see what sticks philosophy in year one.  In year two, because he said he now knows the players capabilities, Kelly stated he will design the offense around their strengths.  He also mentioned that with the strong defense the Irish are expected to have, he won’t need to press as much and Kelly talked about using play action more (which immediately made me think of Weis’s faux play action that froze… nobody.)    As I wrote last year, I think Kelly needed to support Crist with a running game and I think he left wins on the table. I have no idea what to expect, except improvement over last year’s dismal 25 ppg production.  What killed the Irish was the combination of finishing 70th (or so) in scoring and finishing 107th in time of possession.  The latter isn’t as critical if the former is in the top 5, but the combination of low-low sets the defense up for failure.  The move of Ed Warriner, who has run NCAA leading option running attacks and also a Big 10 leading rushing attack to run game coordinator is “inneresting.”  Here are the fans position takes with some notes in order of expectation:

1. Position: Kicker Expected Performance: Top 20
Hi: Top 20 Lo: Top 30

David Ruffer had a Championship season kicking field goals last year, he’s back.  Freshman Kyle Brindza can reportedly send kickoffs to Venezuela.  Next.

2. Position: Wide Receiver Expected Performance: Top 20
Hi: Championship Lo: Top 30

Michael Floyd is the most sure thing on the field, after that the Irish get average quick. Theo Riddick certainly has potential and seemed to click before he was injured, but he still wasn’t the big-time playmaker the Irish staff seemed to think he would be.  Robbie Toma and Tailor Jones were both solid, if unspectacular.  John Goodman has the enigma tag. Kelly has said the freshman DaVaris Daniels will have to play before he’s ready, not usually a good sign, but he could be trying to light a fire underneath some of the upper class wide receivers. NDNation fans are bit too optimistic here in my opinion.3.

3. Position: Tight End  Expected Performance: Top 20
Hi: Top 20 Lo: Top 30

According to Molnar, Tyler Eifert can play anywhere and both he and Ragone  can stretch the field.  Molnar offered that Ragone and Eifert are equally as fast, though Ragone is a better blocker and both are vertical threats and soft hands.  Welch and Koyack represent intriguing possibilities with Ragone injured again. Welch was lauded as a blocker coming into ND but has shown a knack for getting open.  Koyack has, so far, lived up to this hype. Tight End is a unique strength for ND as Kelly can line them up as inside and spread one out or start with one out wide and bring them in for a power game.  By using this lineup, Notre Dame can power rush defensive passing alignments and pass over running alignments.

4, Position: Quarterback Expected Performance: Top 30
Hi: Top 20 Lo: Top 50

Whether it’s Dayne Crist or Tommy Rees, each has a drawback.  For Crist, it’s simple, consistency as he acknowledges, “I need to continue to improve my accuracy.”  Crist has great potential, but in games continually  missed on some of his easier passes, leading to third and longs and three and outs.  Those are passes Kelly equates to runs and that can’t happen in 2011.  Molnar noted consistency as his bugaboo.  Paraphrasing Molnar, “if you miss on the passes you have to make. then you put the offense in a bad situation.”  Molnar noted that Crist was his own worst enemy (this points to coaching, IMO) in 2010, citing footwork decision-making, getting into the right protection and the right play and missing his keys.  Molnar mentioned that he has improved his footwork and decision-making.  Tommy Rees has different issues.  He’s known for his accuracy and quick release, but he lacks arm strength and was prone to interceptions.  Note that he far outperformed Jimmy Clausen’s freshman numbers and had close to Clausen’s passing efficiency rating from Clausen’s sophomore year as a freshman.  Golson and Hendrix bring a change-up element and Kelly has stated that he will use that change-up at times this year.  My bet is the speed option with Golson and then a play action Golson, who has very good accuracy down field (and a hell of a strong arm.)

5. Position: Offensive Line Expected Performance: Top 30
Hi: Top 20 Lo: Top 50

I think the offensive line is underrated coming into 2011.  They played very well at the end of 2010, opening up running lanes and protecting the passer  against some very good Miami pass rushers. Across the board the team is full of upperclassmen who have already played very well protecting the passer and run blocking. I think this is a top 10 line, very few lines will be as good in 2011.  Been wrong before…

6. Position: Running Back Expected Performance: Top 30
Hi: Top 20 Lo: Top 50

This is another position I think is slightly underrated.  Wood averaged 5.1 yards a carry last year and showed some flashes of greater potential.  Jonas Gray was hurt last year and fell on the depth chart, but he was running right with Wood in the spring. Both have better speed than Allen, though Gray claims to be slightly faster than Wood.  Behind them is George Atkinson, who is a dynamic player with elite speed.  He has good moves, surprising power and when he’s gone, he’s really gone.  Cam McDaniel reminds me a of a Mark Green type back, but with better speed.   If Wood went down, I’m not sure the situation is as dire as most think.  Gray was Rivals #4 rated running back and, if he didn’t get hurt last year, may not have fallen behind Hughes.  A lesser team (without Wood) would put Atkinson in immediately to take advantage of his game breaking potential. If Wood stays healthy, this could be a team strength.

7. Position: Kick/Punt Return Expected Performance: Top 30
Hi: Top 30 Lo: Top 50 to Uh oh.

Our return game was a continuing puzzle last year. John Goodman could have just called for fair catches and have been as effective.  Theo Riddick will return punts and while he can make people miss, he has yet to show great speed in his game.  What I do like about Riddick as a returner is he’ll get +5 yards on the return almost every time and if we see his open field ability that the staff has been talking about this could be a strength.  Riddick and Jackson will team together on kickoff returns. Jackson showed some flashes of his speed last year (he was a top sprinter in high school.)  Overall, we might be able to field a top 30 unit here.  If not, Kelly has to look at changing up the special teams coaching.

Defense to follow in Part III.