Notre Dame returns home on Saturday and will attempt to get back on track with a victory over Purdue after hitting a pothole last week in East Lansing. Each team is 2-1 and has turned in relatively inconsistent performances in its first three contests. The Irish hope to use this annual in-state encounter as a springboard to restore hope for a successful season, while their immediate prospects in the event of a loss are substantially dimmer.

Boilermaker coach Joe Tiller has previously announced his retirement at the end of this season, and he would like to break even against the Irish after going 5-6 in 11 previous games. He will bring an experienced team to South Bend led by quarterback Curtis Painter and tailback Kory Sheets, both fifth year seniors.

Purdue is making its first road trip of the season and is coming off a narrow victory over Central Michigan. The Chippewas had just taken a 25-24 fourth quarter lead when Sheets broke off a 46-yard touchdown run to secure the win. Previously, the Boilermakers dropped an overtime decision to Oregon after leading by 20-3 in the second quarter and romped over Northern Colorado in their opener.

This game is the first in a demanding stretch for Purdue. Following the battle with Notre Dame, they will begin conference play by hosting Penn State and traveling to Columbus to face Ohio State. The Irish complete the Big 10 portion of their schedule this weekend and will host Stanford next Saturday before a road trip to North Carolina. The bottom line is that each team needs to win this game in order to be reasonably assured of a winning season.

Notre Dame’s Offense against Purdue’s Defense

Despite a dismal overall offensive showing in 2007, the Irish did enjoy some success against Brock Spack’s Boilermaker defense. This year’s edition has been burned for 943 yards in its last two outings and ranks at the bottom of the Big Ten in yards surrendered per game. The most glaring statistics are the 4.9 yards per attempt and the total rushing yards allowed, which is slightly over 200 per week excluding sacks.

The Boilermakers are not without talent despite the unimpressive numbers. Linebacker Anthony Haygood is a tackling machine and end Alex Magee is usually found in an opponent’s backfield. Safeties Frank Duong and Torri Williams are a pair of solid fifth year seniors. Overall, however, this defense has allowed 74 first downs in three games and an overall lack of speed is frequently exposed.

The question for Notre Dame is whether it can capitalize on this weakness and demonstrate some semblance of balance on offense. Smaller opponents have been able to shut down the running lanes for Irish backs with schematic adjustments that have confounded the coaching staff and players alike. Notre Dame needs to be able to attack unconventional defensive fronts since Purdue and others are likely to employ similar strategies against the Irish.

The passing game should also be productive against the porous Boilermaker secondary, but we learned last week that a one-dimensional attack may not get the ball into the end zone enough times to win. Both teams fail to pressure the passer with regularity, but Purdue may have some success in that area this week unless the Irish can generate production from the ground game. Notre Dame will be in serious trouble if it cannot gain at least 100 yards on the ground.

The Irish should be able to move the ball through the air during the game, but Purdue will protect against the big play and force Jimmy Clausen to execute long drives down the field. Without a viable rushing attack, many drives will fail to produce touchdowns. As we have seen to date, field goals are not necessarily a given, either.

Purdue’s Offense against Notre Dame’s Defense

Tiller will hope for at least 120 yards on the ground against Notre Dame, and Sheets is likely to deliver for him. He runs behind a veteran offensive line that is relatively small by today’s standard but athletic enough to do the job. Sheets has recorded an 80-yard scoring run this season in addition to his game-winning burst last week, and is a threat to go the distance at any time.

Painter has been erratic to date, but he can afford to throw short, high percentage passes with minimal pressure if the running game is working. The Boilermakers had to replace three of their top pass catchers from last season, including NFL first round draft choice Dustin Keller at tight end and deep threat Dorian Bryant. Fortunately for Tiller, his replacements have been in the system for a few years. Greg Orton returns for his senior season and leads the team in receptions, with junior Keith Smith and fifth year senior Desmond Tardy right behind. The team has lacked a speedy replacement for Bryant, but newcomer Aaron Valentin may be working his way into that role.

The Irish will employ a similar defensive strategy as their counterparts. They will strive to force Painter into short passes while focusing on stopping the run. This will put a premium on tight coverage and third down stops.

Special Teams

Both teams have experienced kicking problems this year. Notre Dame’s failure to execute a field goal has been well documented and quite painful, while Purdue’s Chris Summers missed a 44-yard field goal as time expired in regulation against Oregon. Summers also missed a field goal in overtime of that loss. If either team needs a kick of more than 40 yards, the chances of success are not good.

Tardy is the main return man for the Boilermakers, although he is joined by Sheets on kickoff s. Both have performed well and pose a real threat to the Irish. The Notre Dame defense could find itself at a disadvantage in terms of field position if Tardy or Sheets are allowed to return short kickoffs. This same scenario cost the Irish dearly last week against Michigan State after they had closed the gap to 13-7.

Summary

Purdue’s balance on offense is a distinct advantage, and the Irish must counter it by getting their own ground attack going against a vulnerable defense. Notre Dame has more weapons in the passing game and a better defense, particularly against the pass. The Boilermakers hold a slight edge in special teams and kicking.

The game will come down to effort and motivation. Purdue will give the Irish its best effort, but Notre Dame should win if they also play inspired football and run the ball with even moderate success. The problem is that the team’s emotional state is a question mark following last week’s poor performance. A dose of adversity early in this contest may send the Irish into a tailspin.

Here are a few key questions that will determine the outcome:

Will Notre Dame’s trio of running backs be able to match Sheets’ total output?
Which team will control the line of scrimmage?
Which team will win the fourth quarter?
Which quarterback will be more decisive and accurate?
Which defense will be most successful on third down?
Will Weis win the chess match against Brock Spack?
Will either kicker help his team win?

Prediction

Neither team can afford to fall behind, so the Irish need to have an answer when Purdue takes the fight to them early. It will be a bad sign if this Boilermaker defense can stop Notre Dame’s rushing attack, but two of the three previous opponents accomplished this task with similar or inferior talent. When all is said and done, I’m still not convinced that the Irish have put last week behind them and there is strong enough leadership on the team to pull them out of the doldrums.

Purdue 27 Notre Dame 21