Notre Dame takes to the road on Saturday to play the undefeated Duke Blue Devils of the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Fighting Irish are coming off a heartbreaking loss but will find no sympathy from a resurgent opponent looking to shock the world. Coach Marcus Freeman’s job this week is to rally his troops and prepare them for battle in a hostile and highly emotional environment. Duke has arguably not participated in a game of this magnitude since the Cotton Bowl on January 1, 1961. The ABC network will provide nationwide television coverage beginning at 7:30 PM Eastern Time.

Head Coach Mike Elko, the former Defensive Coordinator at Notre Dame, has energized the Blue Devils since taking over the reins last season. He followed an impressive 9-4 2022 season with a 4-0 September, including a 28-7 beatdown of Clemson. Duke has won its games by a combined score of 149-35 and has not surrendered a point in the third quarter. When asked about leading his team into the national spotlight on Saturday, Elko responded as follows:

“We had a ton of confidence in what football could be here. That’s why I took the job. I did not take the job with the hope and expectation that we could be a middle of the road program. That’s not why I came here. That’s not why I left my previous destination. That’s not who I am. It’s not really how I’m wired. Did I anticipate in game five of year two, that we would be on this stage. No, of course not. That is a credit to our kids. That’s really all it is.”

The Blue Devils are led by an exceptional dual threat quarterback in the 6’4” junior Riley Leonard. The offense is ideally balanced between rushing and passing, while the defense, especially against the pass, has exceeded all expectations.

When asked about the state of his team after last Saturday’s bitter loss to Ohio State, Freeman provided this assessment. “We have to face the mistakes that we made and truly own it. And it is so hard to do, but we have to do it. Resilient people and people of character do that, especially during tough times. And so, that’s what I’m going to encourage them to do. And that’s what we have to choose, and we have to choose hard. I have a saying, ‘Choose hard.’ You’re going to have to choose hard, no matter how you feel right now, and truly face the mistakes, attack them and go to work.”

The Irish wide receiver group is impacted by injuries. Jayden Thomas has a strained hamstring and is questionable for this game. Deion Colzie had arthroscopic surgery on his knee on Thursday and will miss a few weeks of action. Matt Salerno remains out with a leg injury, while tight end Eli Raridon is progressing in his rehabilitation from last year’s ACL tear. We could see him this week or next. Duke has reported no current injuries.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. DUKE’S DEFENSE

Duke’s veteran defense plays a base 4-2-5 alignment. The unit lacks individual stars but plays well together under Elko’s guidance. Tackles DeWayne Carter and former Irish player Ja’Mion Franklin are space eaters in the middle while linebackers Dorian Mausi and Cam Dillon fly to the ball. Notre Dame’s offensive line and backs may not enjoy a strategic advantage but they should be able to win a majority of battles against the Blue Devils’ front and control the line of scrimmage. Elko might counter by inserting an extra linebacker such as Tre Freeman or Nick Morris in lieu of a nickel back in the secondary. I’m sure Duke is aware they can play only 11 guys at a time.

If the Blue Devils overplay the run by sending linebackers and safeties into the gaps, Sam Hartman should have time in the pocket for intermediate or play-action passes. The Irish did not call many deep balls or slower developing routes last week against the formidable Ohio State pass rush, but time in the pocket should not be an issue on Saturday. Offensive Coordinator Gerad Parker will have to gauge how much blitzing Duke employs and adjust accordingly.

Surprisingly, 5’8” safety Jaylen Stinson and 5’10” cornerback Chandler Rivers are the team’s leading tacklers. Nickel back Brandon Johnson (also at 5’10”) has a nose for the ball. Each weighs in at or under 180 pounds, and they have not faced a team with the size and power running backs that Notre Dame brings to the table.

A key area to watch is the extent the Irish passing game is impacted by the absence of several key receivers. Without Thomas, Colzie, and Salerno, significant pressure falls on the shoulders of freshmen Jaden Greathouse and Rico Flores. Another highly regarded freshman, Braylon James, may see his first game action this season. Duke is undoubtedly aware of this situation and will likely load up against the run and force Hartman and his young receivers to prove themselves. Thankfully, Hartman has an ace up his sleeve in tight end Mitchell Evans, who has emerged as a standout performer.

DUKE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

It’s not hyperbole to say that Leonard may be the best quarterback the Irish will face this year other than USC’s Caleb Williams. The downside for Duke is they do not have a dynamic group of skilled position players to support him. That said, graduate running back Jordan Waters is an above-average runner. He shares the workload almost equally with backup Jaquez Moore, who is a junior. Waters is the bigger of the two at 220 pounds and is a better receiver. He leads the team in rushing by just 20 yards over Leonard.

The offensive line is seasoned and competent. This group averages 313 pounds and is led by center Jacob Monk. Right tackle Jake Hornibrook is a graduate transfer from Stanford. Leonard is well-protected, having been sacked only twice for nine yards. Duke averages 5.6 yards per rush and 200 yards per game on the ground. Notre Dame’s defensive line rotation will have its hands full on Saturday.

The Irish linebackers will also have to play tough yet disciplined football. JD Bertrand played a solid overall game last week, but running mate Marist Liufau had zero tackles or assists despite playing a vast majority of the snaps. It would be a gross understatement to say that Liufau has been wildly inconsistent this season. Notre Dame did a good job of containing dual threat quarterback Brennan Armstrong of North Carolina State earlier this month. Leonard represents a better version of Armstrong, especially as a passer.

Leonard has completed 68% of his passes this season without an interception. His receivers are not home run threats but are competent. Jordan Moore and Jalon Calhoun are the two top targets with 20 receptions apiece. Tight end Nicky Dalmolin is next with none. The Blue Devils lost their most experienced receiver, Eli Pancol, due to a lower body injury in preseason camp.

Duke does not have a quick strike offense but Leonard can operate successfully behind his offensive line and keep the ball away from their opponent. They are excellent on third down with a 44% conversion rate and in the red zone. If Notre Dame cannot force them to punt, they are simply going to have to outscore them. Elko’s defense has not allowed teams to gain traction in its first four games and will try to make it five.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame fans have reason to be concerned if the game is decided by a field goal. Kicker Spencer Shrader failed his first critical test last week. Later in that contest, Freeman elected to go for it (unsuccessfully) on fourth down rather than give Shrader another shot. When Shrader is called upon this week, punter Bryce McFerson will be his new holder. Perhaps that will help.

The rest of the special teams play last week was also disappointing. The Irish had poor field position all night and have yet to make a significant contribution this season.

Duke kicker Todd Pellino is five of seven on field goals this season, including a 50-yarder. Punter Porter Wilson has an amazing 53-yard average on ten attempts. The Blue Devils cover well and have a capable return game. Calhoun averages 15 yards per punt return. Safety Terry Moore is the deep man on kickoffs, although Duke usually elects not to return them.

SUMMARY

Leonard’s talents and Elko’s defensive wizardry will likely cause issues for Notre Dame early in the contest. It should not take more than a quarter for the Irish to get going assuming they are properly motivated and focused. If they are not, the Blue Devils could extend the suspense well into the final minutes. They are a sound team that makes few mistakes, penalties or turnovers. They will not give the game away to the Irish.

It is therefore imperative that Notre Dame takes the field with the necessary intensity and physicality to beat the Devils into submission. Defensively, the Irish know how to contain a versatile quarterback but Leonard is good enough to make plays against anyone. Freeman’s plan should be to control the ball and the clock with the ground game, limit Duke’s opportunities, and score points on the majority of their own possessions.

Here are a few questions that will help determine the outcome:

• Which defense will be able to stop the run?
• Will the young Irish receivers succeed against a small but experienced Duke secondary?
• Which special teams and kicker will influence the outcome?
• Can Notre Dame get off to a strong start and maintain a high emotional level?
• Which coaching staff manage to keep the other team off balance?
• Will Leonard be free to scramble around and make plays with his arm and legs?
• Which team will win the turnover battle?

PREDICTION

Freeman certainly understands that he must have Notre Dame emotionally and physically ready to play from the opening kickoff. The sooner the Irish can deflate the energy in the stadium, the better this road trip will go for them. Three weeks ago, Freeman and his staff were caught off guard in the early going at North Carolina State before a two-hour weather delay allowed them to adjust and recover. Preferably, Freeman’s squad will be breathing fire when they come through the tunnel on Saturday and take control from the outset. Irish fans know that such a development is rare, particularly on the road. How often has an opponent surprised Notre Dame by employing schemes and tactics its staff had not seen on film and was utterly unprepared to counter? The answer is too often, dating back to 1997. Why can’t the Irish be the team that takes the strategic initiative and puts a quality opponent on its heels?

Notre Dame has a clear edge in terms of talent. Can Freeman have them sufficiently focused to subdue the Blue Devils? My faith in him remains solid despite the poor finish to last week’s game. However, if the Irish are emotionally flat this week and play poorly, I will have to recalibrate that view. I believe the visitors will prevail but something tells me it won’t be a cakewalk.

NOTRE DAME 31  DUKE 21

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