(Notre Dame Football News | The Rock Report) – For the 5th year the NDNation Probability Poll is in… and while 7,000 fans can be and usually are wrong, this year early analysis shows that fans actually have the same expectations as some of the hardened veterans at NDNation. Last year the optimistic boundary called for 10 wins… fail. The pessimists called for 7 wins and hit it on the nose.
The probability poll actually began back in 2006 when ND was a 5-1 favorite to win the title, but a cursory look at the schedule showed that fans were being too optimistic on a game by game basis to expect a National Championship. A preseason Rock Report used game by game probabilities to squelch fan over-optimism.
If Notre Dame is only a slight favorite to win two games, the reality is that the Irish are actually a dog to win them both. Extrapolate that same principle out over 12 games and the odds diminish fast. Last year I predicted a 4-2 start just based on per game probablity. Playing a similar game with this year’s schedule, Notre Dame looks like a two loss team... it still equates to just an 7% chance of running the table to the BCS championship game with a likely 50% shot in the title game. That puts ND’s undefeated national title hopes at 4% on the optimistic side – or 1/25.
The probability concept puts a little more thought around predictions than just, is ND better than X? We ask every fan to estimate the probability of the Irish winning each game and use that to calculate expectations. Without further ado, the results:
2011 Findings
- On average, fans expect approximately 8.6 wins this year and think there’s a 1.6% chance of going undefeated. This is almost the exact same as last year. Where it gets interesting is in separating the optimists from the pessimists. Both are more optimistic and more pessimistic heading into 2011.
- At the most optimistic boundary (highest responses garnering at least 10%) fans expect…. 12 wins this season and think there’s a 100% chance of going undefeated.
- The pessimistic boundary is also more drastic. At the most pessimistic boundary (lowest responses garnering at least 10%) fans expect 5.9 wins this season and think there’s almost zero chance of finishing the season undefeated or with one loss.
There seem to be four levels of opponents:
- The coin toss: Stanford
- The slight favorites: Southern Cal and Michigan State
- The solid favorites: Michigan, Boston College, Pittsburgh and Navy
- The heavy favorites: Maryland, Air Force and South Florida
- The slam dunks: Wake Forest and Purdue
Fan disagreement:
- Fans had the most disagreement about Stanford
- Fans had the most agreement… Southern Cal.
Here are the rolled up results with a new calculation introduced, the NSG or neurotic swing gap, which is the delta between the optimistic and pessimistic boundaries of NDNation. Fans are most neurotic about Stanford and Michigan State, but most together in their expectations around Wake Forest, Purdue and Maryland. It should be noted that fans were fairly certain about Tulsa, which ended up as one of the top teams on ND’s schedule last year.
| Opponent | Avg | Low | High | NSG |
| Wake Forest | 83% | 60% | 100% | 40% |
| Purdue | 79% | 60% | 100% | 40% |
| Maryland | 78% | 60% | 100% | 40% |
| Air Force | 78% | 50% | 100% | 50% |
| South Florida | 76% | 50% | 100% | 50% |
| Boston College | 75% | 50% | 100% | 50% |
| Navy | 74% | 40% | 100% | 60% |
| Pittsburgh | 73% | 50% | 100% | 50% |
| Michigan | 66% | 40% | 100% | 60% |
| Michigan State | 62% | 30% | 100% | 70% |
| Southern Cal | 62% | 40% | 100% | 60% |
| Stanford | 52% | 20% | 100% | 80% |
| Expected Wins | 8.6 | 5.5 | 12.0 |
Here are the unfettered results for you to Monte Carlo too and find the near certain fault in my analysis:
| NDN Probability Poll 2011 | |||||||||||
| What is the % probability that ND will beat X? | |||||||||||
| Opponent | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Response Count |
| South Florida | 9 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 91 | 385 | 1356 | 2417 | 1858 | 924 | 7061 |
| Michigan | 9 | 14 | 45 | 188 | 1036 | 1920 | 2057 | 1186 | 395 | 207 | 7061 |
| Michigan State | 17 | 20 | 98 | 342 | 1597 | 1934 | 1756 | 873 | 258 | 163 | 7061 |
| Pittsburgh | 7 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 219 | 834 | 1990 | 2313 | 1175 | 470 | 7061 |
| Purdue | 8 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 124 | 645 | 1756 | 2885 | 1605 | 7061 |
| Air Force | 7 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 79 | 309 | 1047 | 1953 | 2244 | 1389 | 7061 |
| Southern Cal | 16 | 20 | 97 | 279 | 1635 | 2181 | 1632 | 755 | 262 | 176 | 7061 |
| Navy | 8 | 6 | 19 | 71 | 390 | 865 | 1610 | 1766 | 1318 | 1001 | 7061 |
| Wake Forest | 6 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 85 | 356 | 1030 | 2637 | 2909 | 7061 |
| Maryland | 5 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 330 | 1119 | 2070 | 1994 | 1461 | 7061 |
| Boston College | 7 | 3 | 11 | 21 | 189 | 694 | 1805 | 2275 | 1303 | 749 | 7061 |
| Stanford | 44 | 180 | 640 | 1297 | 2179 | 1172 | 822 | 430 | 163 | 120 | 7061 |
| Opponent | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| South Florida | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 19% | 34% | 26% | 13% |
| Michigan | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 15% | 27% | 29% | 17% | 6% | 3% |
| Michigan State | 0% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 23% | 27% | 25% | 12% | 4% | 2% |
| Pittsburgh | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 12% | 28% | 33% | 17% | 7% |
| Purdue | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 9% | 25% | 41% | 23% |
| Air Force | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 15% | 28% | 32% | 20% |
| Southern Cal | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 23% | 31% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% |
| Navy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 6% | 12% | 23% | 25% | 19% | 14% |
| Wake Forest | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 15% | 37% | 41% |
| Maryland | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 16% | 29% | 28% | 21% |
| Boston College | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 10% | 26% | 32% | 18% | 11% |
| Stanford | 1% | 3% | 9% | 18% | 31% | 17% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2% |
Ronnie says:
The probability of rounded results 9 wins 3 losses appears reasonable. So much depends on the physical stamina of the team though. If Christ does not get hurt, a 10 or 11 win season is reasonable according to my statistical estimates. Everyone is afraid of Michigan State. Frankly, they are not that good. An example is their lopsided loss to Alabama. I go to all MI State home games and can’t imagine that ND would have trouble with them, but ND never seems to be prepared for them. Most games they are like sleepwalking. I think Kelly will be ready for them as well as Michigan.
C_I says:
It is already known that Christ will not suit up, much less start this year.
Crist on the other hand, has a good chance of proving your prediction correct.
Max says:
You tryin’ to say Jesus Christ can’t play football? Let’s not start a holy war, now.
C_I says:
Christ’s wounds have put his place on the hands team in jeopardy.
There are also some questions about his wheels.
Also, have heard my father state, repeatedly, “Christ he can’t play, why is he even out there?”
I learned to watch ND football from him, so I gotta give his opinion so thought.
Joe says:
Jesus… I like him very much. But he no help with the deep ball.
Luke says:
Christ’s OK… but he’s no Holy Spirit.
Whiskey says:
So Christ will redshirt this year ?
Then I hope we get John the Baptist back from that bout of light-headedness.
Ronnie says:
Christ is the man. With him and and his teammate Gott blocking, we can’t be beat. Their mother Merry will provide the Kool Aid. So from my statistical perspective, this will be a heavenly season. C your father always said Crist he can’t play. Time to go back and reassess your football watching that you learned from him. I on the other hand used my eyes to watch a game. No one really had to teach me to watch. It almost came naturally with the angels telling me to open my eyes and move my head.
borromini says:
Wow…I’ve never seen a misspelled name generate so much discussion.
Andy says:
Let us not forget that we would have beaten both MSU and Tulsa, if
(a) the referee in charge of the play clock wasn’t visually and mentally handicapped in E. Lansing,
(b) Crist does not get injured, forcing us to use a ‘turnover machine’ freshman QB (in whom I have complete confidence this year, as a sophomore.)
Plus, I think Diaco & Co. will know exactly how to handle the option attacks of Navy and Air Force.
I like our chances this year. Year Two of a Kelly-led team always seem to do very well.
BruceB says:
I was one of the more optimistic voters and my optimism continues to grow. Just looking at the short video clips we’re getting from und.com is very encouraging. Even the 280-300 lb. linemen look like real athletes – something we never saw in the Weis era. I think conditioning and attitude were ND’s biggest shortcomings over the past dozen years or so, and Kelly has worked hard in both these areas since his arrival.
bill haines says:
For Crist sake boys !! How about the ND remedial spelling bee. It’s nice to know we have a formidable Subway alum. It is a Catholic institution, so I see the Christ slip. SC, Michigan State, Stanford are then tough ones, However, the team has great upside and a supposed new psyche. What year do we play Bethlehem State??!!
Kevin says:
Did I miss something in our recruiting? When did we get Jesus on the field? What is his star rating and position?
Adam says:
One star
And I’d expect to see him in the return game
Luke says:
OK, game, set, match.
That’s funny right there.
NDMBA says:
Jesus Christ (Trinity H.S./Heaven) – Athlete
Three-star
6’1″ 220 lbs. (200 lbs without beard/crown of thorns)
4.4 in the 40yd dash (in sandals)
Report: JC seems to have the ability to rise above his competition and is particularly effective in the rain. Not easily taunted, he seems to always be able to turn the other cheek. He always seems to be in position to receive a Hail Mary and is know to throw a big fish fry after every game.
DCIrish says:
OK, I think we’ve hammered the Christ/Crist thing to dust. Some funny remarks, though 🙂
I think that predicting this year would give a Vegas bookie heartburn. I think that Stanford is just too good, so I’m chalking that up as a loss. Beyond that, ND could be a powerhouse . . . or a powderpuff. We have decent talent and excellent health, and if the lads have really learned Kelly’s system, the Irish could seriously beat people. On the other hand, there are some real question marks, especially whether the offense can execute Kelly’s scheme with power and confidence. And although the QB situation definitely hurt us in the Tulsa game, I can’t forget Kelly’s decision not to kick it at the end. I hope he has learned a few things too. If not, it could be a long year. I’m thinking 9-3 or 10-2, but I wouldn’t be all that surprised by 7-5 or 11-1.
Anyway, the time for talk is almost done: Go Irish!
Urq says:
Vegas usually gets it right and they agree with the poll results. The over/under line can be found at 8.5-9.0 wins. Money line is about +110 for the over and -125 for the under. So, the better odds are on the over which means the under is a “safer” bet in their minds. Makes sense since you would need 10 wins with the over and an 8-4 season wins with the under.
Don in LA says:
So…you’re prediction is either 7-5 or 11-1. Wow. That’s a bold prognostication. A four game range, or 1/3 of the season.
Here’s the thing. None of us know. I’m telling everyone in LA that we’re running the table….13-0…BCS title….blah, blah. blah.
Now…here’s what I really think. I don’t like Michigan in Ann Arbor, USC (even though they’re headed south, and I don’t mean to Tijuana for spring break), and Stanford in Palo Alto. I say we get two of those three. Run the rest. 10-2.
Fitz says:
Feelin much more confident goin into this season than the last. I’m guessing 10-2. Though knowing how things usually go I don’t think we’ll lose to Stranford/Michigan or one of the more obvious candidates. The Irish always get up (wake up the echoes) for the big games they’re underdogs in and end up losing a game or 2 they should just plain win. Another reason we might get motivated and beat Stanford is that it’s the last game of the season and a major BCS bowl invitation could be on the line. Go Irish!
Ronnie says:
Let’s remember, we have a new coach who has been a winner. Last season was a let’s see what we have and be satisfied. I don’t think he really cared whether the team won or lost. The season was a learning experience to see what kind of talent he had and what positions he had to recruit. This season he knows who his players are and he’s going to demand performance. Take the over bet in Las Vegas. This team may run the table or at most 1 loss. The defense has finally arrived and the offense will put up 30 or more points per game. Bet on it.
Ronnie says:
P.S. Christ said, “Rest in Peace”.
kmjackson says:
Stanford has a new coach and returning semi-Heisman QBs usually do not fare too well. They are beatable. Then again so are we. I’ll say 10-2 but I think we have as much chance as any team to run the table.
RootHogOrDie says:
The pessimists won out last year in a season where everything that could go wrong, did go wrong. The Irish will have better luck this year, so I think the the average outlook of nine wins is probably right. But if they win the first four, then add one or two more wins.
Garrett says:
My brain is telling me they go 11-1 and that 1 loss is to Stanford and the more i compare the two teams the more I like our chances. Last year, we had a new coach, new scheme, new EVERYTHING all the while the boys and Brian Kelly had to deal with being Notre Dame. I agree that the first half of last year was a let’s see what we have and the second half of last year was, ok now its time to play! However, the bad memories keep coming back of losing to teams we have no business losing to which is scary but I have faith that Brain Kelly has got what it takes to make this a special season. I’m going to stick with my 11-1 give or take 1 either way. In other words I’m taking the over and a BCS bowl (maybe championship birth…..but lets not get carried away)!!! GO IRISH!!!!