The USC Trojans invade Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday in pursuit of their eighth consecutive victory over the Irish. Both teams are 4-1 with last minute road losses against opponents they should have beaten, and both are coming off a bye week in their schedules. Several key players on each side are returning from injury for this contest, but the notable exceptions are Trojan tailback Stafon Johnson and Irish wide receiver Michael Floyd. The Notre Dame campus will be at a fever pitch as the game appears to represent the best chance for an Irish victory in this series since a heartbreaking 34-31 loss in 2005.

Pete Carroll usually has his team in the national championship picture, however this season was supposed to be a rebuilding year of sorts in Los Angeles. A veteran offense was supposed to carry the Trojans in 2009, but Carroll lost quarterback Mark Sanchez to the New York Jets and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to the Washington Huskies. The situation on defense posed a greater concern since safety Taylor Mays is the only returning starter. Remarkably, USC’s deep talent reservoir churned out another superior group of athletes and Carroll has brought them along nicely. Consequently, the Trojans are ranked fifth and still strike fear in the hearts of most opponents.

Notre Dame will be able to attack with a credible running threat to complement the pinpoint passing of Jimmy Clausen. Armando Allen has run well and Robert Hughes has emerged as the designated sledgehammer that can pound the ball when called upon. Coach Charlie Weis continues to search for a capable receiver to fill Floyd’s shoes, and this may be critical to the outcome as Carroll will undoubtedly tweak his defensive plan to contain Irish playmaker Golden Tate.

This weekend also may be a referendum on the Weis regime at Notre Dame. Failure to beat USC in five years is not a healthy situation for any Irish coach. His team has not dominated opponents that were perceived as relatively weak, and the Trojans will provide the first true barometer of the program in year five. A large contingent of 2010 and 2011 recruits will also be on campus, so the future is now. If this roll of the dice works for Weis, he may finally be able to climb above the doubters and critics that have risen in the past two seasons and have not been assuaged by three consecutive nail-biting wins this year.

NOTRE DAME’s OFFENSE vs. USC’s DEFENSE

The undermanned Irish limped into the Coliseum last November and failed to record a first down until the final moments of the third quarter in an embarrassing loss. This year, Floyd remains absent but there are more weapons available to a much-improved and better-protected Clausen. The running game is vital to Notre Dame’s chances, but the Irish must attack USC straight ahead rather than wide. The interior of the Trojan defensive line is not quite as stout as in recent seasons, although the ends and linebackers are even faster than last year’s highly acclaimed starters. USC has surrendered just two yards per rush in five games, and in the process held Ohio State to only 88 yards in 30 tries.

In the passing game, the Trojans will play tight coverage and make the Irish earn every completion and extra yard. Tate is likely to probe the deep sidelines and occupy the attention of Mays while Rudolph attempts to work over the middle. One key component is the ability of Notre Dame’s offensive tackles to contain four talented Trojan pass rushers off the edge. Everson Griffin, Malik Jackson, Nick Perry and Armond Armstead will apply pressure in the pocket and Carroll may break from his own tendencies by ordering an occasional blitz. The offense will be in trouble if Rudolph is forced to become a pass blocker rather than a viable receiver. A strong effort by Duval Kamara or Robbie Parris would certainly help the Irish cause.

Middle linebacker Chris Gallippo leads the team in tackles and is developing into an excellent player. He is flanked by Michael Morgan, whose speed allows him to be effective in pass coverage as well as a frequent but uninvited guest in the opponent’s backfield. Senior cornerbacks Josh Pinkard and Kevin Thomas have the luxury of having Mays play behind them, and the Trojans have not allowed a single touchdown pass this season.

Clausen’s accuracy will be critical since there may not be much separation between his receivers and the USC defenders. A successful running game will be a tall order against this defense, but the Irish are not likely to sustain many drives if they find themselves in third and long situations all afternoon.

USC’s OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’s DEFENSE

The Irish defenders showed improvement against Washington and their confidence should benefit from the multiple goal line stands late in that game. Tackling remains a concern but there are no excuses coming off a bye week. USC’s offensive line, led by Jeff Byers and Kris O’Dowd, is the best the Irish have faced this season and one has to wonder if frequent blitzes will succeed or backfire against this veteran group. If Notre Dame’s front four cannot neutralize the surge of the Trojan line, any adjustments the Irish make will create vulnerability.

Speedy Joe McKnight leads the ground attack for USC since Johnson suffered a serious injury in the weight room. Allen Bradford is an effective jumbo back while fullback Stanley Havili’s niche is his ability to catch third down passes out of the backfield. The Trojans average 5.5 yards per rush, which takes considerable pressure from the shoulders of freshman quarterback Matt Barkley. USC is noticeably more conservative in its play calling and pass routes with Barkley at the helm, but the reins are loosening each week. The primary receiver by a wide margin is Damien Williams, and Barkley usually dumps the ball off to Havili or McKnight if he is covered.

Like the Irish without Floyd to pair with Tate, the Trojans have yet to find a reliable receiver to complement Williams since Ronald Johnson was injured early in the season. Although Johnson has returned and been cleared to play, he will not be anywhere near maximum effectiveness. David Ausberry and Brice Butler have had intermittent success, but neither is an established threat. Notre Dame must account for Williams in the secondary, while a more telling indicator may be whether its linebackers can match up in coverage against Havili and McKnight. Anthony McCoy is a productive tight end whose 22 yards per catch cannot be ignored.

If USC can run the ball effectively, Barkley will have time to mix in short passes to keep the chains moving. Only by creating third and long situations can the Irish exploit Barkley’s youth and create opportunities for turnovers. Judicious use of the blitz and a mix of coverage looks are the best way for Notre Dame to attack this offense, but the plan will unravel if the front four is unable to cope with USC’s blockers.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Both teams have new kickers this season, and Notre Dame’s Nick Tausch holds a slight advantage in range over USC’s Jordan Congdon. Neither punter is exceptional, averaging less than 40 yards per boot.

Williams has been very effective as USC’s punt return man and has a 66 yard touchdown to his credit. The Trojan coverage teams are solid, and it will be interesting to see if Notre Dame’s Theo Riddick can find a lane against them on kickoff returns.

SUMMARY

USC appeared to put the pieces together against California in a 30-3 romp two weeks ago, and the retooled defense is just as stingy as ever. Carroll knows how to get his team prepared to win on the road and there is no chance that the Trojans will turn in one of their rare but troubling poor performances considering the importance of this game and the opponent. This means the Irish must come prepared to take the fight to USC and beat them over a full
sixty minutes.

Notre Dame has the talent to play much better football than they have shown to date. The offense has had time to adjust to the loss of Floyd, and the defense has to be tired of the criticism that has accompanied spotty play against unheralded teams. A key to the outcome will be their ability to keep USC out of the end zone, even if the Trojan offense is largely successful in the middle of the field.

Let’s consider a few questions that will help determine the outcome:

Will the Irish be able to cover Barkley’s check down receivers (McKnight, Havili) in the passing game?

Can the offensive tackles contain the edge pass rush from the Trojans without help from the tight ends?

Can Notre Dame sustain a decent ground game with 3.5 to 4.0 yards per carry?

Which team will be able to score touchdowns rather than field goals in the red zone?

Will the Irish be able to force Barkley into uncomfortable third and long situations?

Is the Trojan offensive line impervious to the blitz?

Which team’s leading receiver (Williams or Tate) will be able to make plays despite being shadowed?

Will the second and third receivers for either team become difference makers?

Will Clausen be the first quarterback to throw a touchdown pass against USC this season?

PREDICTION

Notre Dame will carry considerable emotion into this game and it would be of great benefit if they can get out to an early lead. If the Irish are to win, USC will have to contribute to the cause with untimely penalties and a couple of turnovers. This scenario is possible even though the Trojans would likely win 7-8 out of ten games between these teams.

On the other hand, Carroll’s recent defensive plans against Notre Dame have been superb. He understands the progressions in the Irish passing game and has been successful in forcing the quarterback out of his comfort zone. Clausen’s passing and the play calling of Weis will keep this from being a one-sided affair, but the overall speed of the Trojan defense and the strength of their offensive line are too difficult to ignore.

USC 31 NOTRE DAME 17